Water can take and take and take heat, but when it finally reaches its specific heat, it doesn't just get warmer by a bit. It changes state entirely. It boils. This is what we're watching happen in the Persian Gulf. I know it feels like watching water boil, but water does boil, whether you watch it or not. And believe me, Iran is boiling the oceans, and the White Empire is cooked.

From where I sit in Sri Lanka, it's already getting hot. It's been two months of heat in the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean is bubbling. We've had fuel rationing down here for months. I don't even remember what a full tank is, and I've started walking. That's where I saw this dinosaur, who flicked his tongue and said I've seen worse.

This reality is taking a while to reach the West, but I'm not watching it too much. I know how water works. The heat will get there soon enough and went it does, it won't be a slight increase in temperature. It will be a boiling oil shock.

Digression Into A Biology Textbook

It's seems crazy that after all the clashing of iron across the Gulf the consequences for 'America' could be... nothing, but iron can get hot while the water appears to do nothing. I'm studying biology again and my textbook says, “the reason you can burn your fingers by touching the side of an iron pot on the stove when the water in the pot is still lukewarm is that the specific heat [see what I mean?] of water is ten times greater than that of iron.”

The White Empire, entire, has burnt its fingers on the side of the Persian Gulf (all their base are belong to us) but the message hasn't reached their brain cause their reflexes are shot. The jugular of the petrodollar has been cut. I won't show the graph of transits through Hormuz again because it's still flat and unchanging. Precious little is crossing the Strait and while global reserves can absorb a little of this loss, they can't absorb a lot. What is the difference between ‘a little’ and ‘a lot’? Just a timing difference. Markets can delay this fate, but not avert it. At some level it's just physics. There's either gas in the tank or there's not.

As my textbook continues, “Water resists changing its temperature; [but] when it does change its temperature, it absorbs or loses a relatively large quantity of heat for each degree of change.” This is a fancy way of saying it boils into an entirely different state (gas) or freezes into another state (solid). This should be a lesson to human states, which are also not immune to rapid phase changes.

You can observe this metaphor for yourself by watching a pot boil. It seems like it won't start, but then it can't stop. For most of the degrees it's nothing, nothing, nothing, but once it crosses 100℃, liquid rules are overthrown and a gas state takes power. This is what Iran has done. They have turned up the heat on the imperial economy and people will be like ha ha, nothing happened, until it does. Don't believe me, just watch.

Sri Lankan Digression

I speak to you from a bubble, already burbling popping in the pot. Sri Lanka had fuel queues the day after the war started because we've been here before, and we know. When the Empire yanked our debt chain in 2022, we ran out of fuel for months. We know what that's like and we don't like it, the entire government fell and it took years to recover.

Hence this government just paid $286 for a barrel of landed diesel not because they're dumb, but because they're scared, given hard experience. Fear is the lesson pain teaches you, but if you haven't learned (and you refuse to be educated), there's only one way to find out. Sri Lanka's among the first bubbles to run for the gas, but believe me, we won't be the last one. It's a burbling, burbling pot.

We can already feel the hit in the Indian Ocean because we're directly connected to the Persian Gulf, but no one in the White Empire gives a shit about us. We're supposed to suffer. During the Bengal Famine, when Vicecunt Archibald Wavell asked please sir, may the rabbits have more, he reported that “In July 1944, "Winston sent me a peevish telegram to ask why Gandhi hadn't died yet!" Wavell recorded in his diary. "He has never answered my telegram about food,"” (from Churchill's Secret War). But no man is an island, entire of itself, and as goes the subcontinent, so goes the main Empire, it's just a timing difference. I digress because we are a digression that, nonetheless, contains a lesson.

Spot The Future

This is a bit hard to read, but just look at the 5th column, the Oman Brent Spot Premium. This is roughly the difference in 'temperature' between the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic.

As you can see, after spiking to a 'temperature' difference of $12 (7 April), the difference has cooled to $5-7, even briefly $1. What's going on? If we crack my AP Bio text again it says, “evaporative cooling occurs because the "hottest" molecules, those with the greatest kinetic energy, are the most likely to leave as gas. It is as if the hundred fastest runners at a college transferred to another school; the average speed of the remaining students would decline.”

Sri Lankans are, in this regard, the fastest runners. We ran to the gas station because we know what fuel shortages are, we've been here before. Our cultural awareness of energy shocks is like our cultural awareness of tsunamis after 2004. We didn't know what the hell they were before, but we sure as hell know now.

When the tsunami hit, the joke was that the government thought it was a Japanese guy they had to pick up from the airport (‘Eh, who is this T. Sunami sir?’). We literally did not know the word. Thus, when the ocean first receded, as tsunamis do, people went out to see, and got swept away forever. At least 35,000 people died that day, the coastline was shocked. Pain is the greatest teacher, and now if we see any pertubation in the ocean, people know what to do. Don't just stand there. Run, or in case of oil suddenly receding, queue.

When I see the slow motion shock spreading across the world oceans, I remember that it took hours for the tsunami to wrap around my island. There was time for Trinco to call Galle and time for Galle to call Colombo but it didn't matter cause whatever message got through was incomprehensible. People died anyway, though the information was there from morning. This is what I see happening across the world, as the Al Aqsa Flood wraps around every continent. Even though the oil shock has already hit the Indian Ocean, the Atlanticists can't understand it because A) they're racist and B) simply inexperienced. Me explaining this to White people is like Lassie barking that a Black kid fell down the well, to which the town responds ‘oh well,’ and gets on with whatever they were doing.

Extended Lassie Metaphor

What is going to happen is what economists bloodlessly call 'demand destruction', and a few Sri Lankans and Filipinos falling off the imperial gravy boat is not enough to keep it afloat. The average Sri Lankan uses as much energy as the average Western pet, we are not the problem, so we cannot be the solution. The amount of 'demand destruction' from marginal people like us is wildly insufficient. As Goldman Satanists reports, “we estimate that the economic hit could be as large as, if not larger, than that experienced during the Covid pandemic.” That is the level of demand destruction required. Remember COVID, when nobody flew or did anything? A random Sri Lankan like me walking to the gym is not gonna cut it!

So bark bark, oil has literally fallen down the well and it's not coming back up. The pump is broken and the ships are backed up. Even if that all stops tomorrow, which it won't, production won't recover for years, and shipping won't recover for months. Remember that water resists changing its temperature and the iron is not cooling down. 'America' is now hijacking Iranian boats in the Indian Ocean and Iran is fast-attacking anything imperial that floats. This is what the 'Americans' call a Mexican Stand-Off and what the imperial economy can call adios, amigos.

Even if 'America' conceded defeat tomorrow, a lot of energy is just lost. It's already boiled off into the ether, and you cannot unboil a pot. A lot of infrastructure is physically damaged and will take years to repair, a process that hasn't even started. To make things just 'snap back' we'd need more tankers than currently exist and existing tankers to be in places they are not. The futures markets cannot just magic up oil which isn't pumped and on ships already. My opinion is that the White economy has already collapsed, and your elites are just stealing the silver and plate from the Titanic. Because, believe me, the real shipping (not bullshitting) has already abandoned them. There's no ship coming in but hardship.

Major oil and gas companies have already declared force majeure, meaning they cannot deliver, don't even bother. And I'm not even talking about sulfur, and fertilizer, and helium, and everything else essential to everything else that comes out of Gulf. Iran's polymath Ghalibaf gave everyone a equation (ΔO_BSOH>0 ⇒ f(f(O))>f(O)) but I'll put it in terms 'Americans' can understand. Woof woof, your economy is a dog, and that dog don't hunt.

Journey To The West

If you would like another digression into the 1592 Chinese Novel Journey To The West, I have included the text above, and my interpretation for paying subs below. As always, if you cannot afford just email me for a comp, no need to explain yourself. Why do you think I'm asking?