In Israel, the comically corrupt Benjamin Netanyahu was on the verge of losing his job, but now he has a national government. One doesn’t change horses mid-pogrom. In America, the chicken-hawk Joe Biden was about to obviously lose in Ukraine, but now he has a new war. And westerners love the smell of new war in the morning.

I have learned that in every situation one has to ask cui bono? Who benefits? That’s what we have to ask about the current war in occupied Palestine. I learned because of bitter experience in my own country, Sri Lanka. In Sri Lanka, politicians were behind the Easter Bombings, and also rounded up rebels and civilians in a ‘no-fire zone’ and fired on them relentlessly. So there are some experiences there that might give some perspective on the seeming chaos in front of international eyes.

In Sri Lanka, Easter 2019, I frantically called my wife to pull them out of church. Other churches were being bombed. This done by Islamic terrorists and the reprisal was state-supported riots against innocent Muslims. Later it emerged that the Sri Lankan President had intelligence about the attacks (and intelligence had connection to the attackers) but that was all buried. It’s not that the state attacked its own people, but they let the attacks happen. Because cui bono. The President wasn’t happy with his ruling coalition, so he blew it up. So what if innocent children got killed in the process.Now what does that tell us about Palestine?

In Palestine, the occupying Israeli government had intelligence about an incoming attack, a big one. The Egyptian government gave it to them, as confirmed by both Israel and the US. Netanyahu’s government ignored it, and this is all it takes. It doesn’t take a big conspiracy. You can just leave some messages on read. Your own people die, but who cares? Especially if your job is at stake. Terrorism is ultimately a great opportunity for a politician. Hell, it made even Rudy Giuliani look like a serious person for a minute.

Politicians love terrorism because it excuses all other ills. They can be corrupt, incompetent, and lead their people into misery, as long as they’re hitting those fuckers, hard. And so they work with those fuckers, or at least lead them along. This generally blows up in their face, but later, and being a politician is just about surviving right now. So, even if they get burnt metaphorically and their people actually get burnt, politicians play with fire all the time.Hence you get the US working with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, bombing them, and then working with them again in Syria. They don’t learn because what’s to learn? It works great for the leaders, and it’s only the dumb followers that die.

In Israel, much is made of Netanyahu openly talking about funding Hamas. To me, that’s just politics. In Sri Lanka, the government armed the LTTE (our rebels) to fight the Indians, then had the same weapons turned on themselves. The Indians trained the LTTE in the first place, only to have the LTTE blow up Rajiv Gandhi (the heir apparent at the time). These armed groups always bite the hand that feeds them, but politicians need attack dogs. So they keep handing out red meat all the time.

Most immediately, hardliners in Israel and Netanyahu have benefitted from these attacks. Sure, their intelligence forces and the IDF look like yahoos, but now Israel gets a blank check from America to ethnically cleanse Gaza, which is what they’ve always wanted to do. The entire western media will give them cover for genocide, running their blood libel (lies) about beheading babies and other atrocities which are not true. This enables Israel to cut off water, electricity, and food to an entire civilian population, bomb them like cowards from above, and kill actual babies. While western celebrities support them. Scratch a liberal and you’ll get a colonizer, always down for crushing a slave rebellion or killing some savages. What I see in the western media is incitement to a good old-fashioned pogrom, like too many my own country has seen.

In the long run, however, playing with fire gets everyone burnt. And you don’t know who’ll actually come out of the fire on top. It’s uncontrollable. Armed groups sometimes just want to roll the dice, even if their enemies are letting them. What do they have to lose? In Sri Lanka, the LTTE almost won. The LTTE ruled most of the north and east of Sri Lanka for years before they were corralled into a small strip of land, along with thousands of civilians. The Sri Lankan government bombed them indiscriminately until resistance crumbled, which is what Israel is trying now. Channel 4 made a documentary about it, which I haven’t watched, because they’re British state media and they pointedly will never make a documentary about Israel the same way. But even a colonial clock is right twice a day.

So what are the parallels here, what are the connections, what are you going to glean in a thousand words about two conflicts you probably have very little context about? What I am trying to communicate is a feeling. That feeling of hope and then its crushing, under the machination of politicians, playing musical chairs while cities burn. All I can say is that bitter experience has always made me ask cui bono. Because these fuckers will do anything for power, and everything you see in the media is more you being manipulated than you being informed.

Personally, I hope that Hamas wins, I think the Palestine cause is beyond just and by God they deserve freedom. Armed resistance in justified and, yes, there will be blood. To me, the liberal hand-wringing about this is the same as hand-wringing about every slave rebellion and anti-colonial movement in history. Same shit, different day, as my historical thesis goes. In those days, they hung the rebel slaves and Hamas is being strung up the same way, while the people of Gaza get collectively punished.

That’s my perspective, which you don’t have to agree with, that’s not the point of this article. The point here is that feeling. I’ve felt this sort of hope before (just as the LTTE gave many Tamils hope in my country, if I’m being honest), and I’ve also found that hope crushed. Because the people in power use rebellions to get more power, and to play different internal (and external) factions off each other. You can call it false flag, but I call it malcompetence. Just leave a few messages on read, and watch the streets run red. When there’s blood on the streets, politicians don’t buy property. They form national governments and take it all.

What I see in Israel is that Netanyahu went from almost having no power to having a lot (though Haaretz and Seymour Hersh say he should be/is done). What I see in America is that a failed war in Ukraine becomes a not-yet failing war in Palestine, which is more their style because they can bomb poor people like they’re used to. So right now, cui bono? The worst people on Earth. But at some point the last should be first, and Israel is theoretically the place to do it.

What has happened is that both Hamas and possibly people within Israel decided to roll the dice. The dice are obviously stacked in the colonizers favor, but when you roll them bones, you just don’t know where they’ll land. Maybe Israel will completely blow up Palestine, or maybe this whole thing will blow up in their face. The only thing sure is a lot of bones, but what those bones mean? That only time will decide.