The Greatest Depression Is Coming And I Feel Fine

A map of who feels it first

Today, South Asians are catching a stray. We're getting the economic fallout of the Ramadan War immediately. We're the passport slaves stuck in the Arab states, the sailors stuck without ports, the labor that replaced Palestinians under occupation. We are, in short, the fall guys, and the economic collapse falls on us first. But who cares? Poor people getting poorer is not a story. It's just the way of the world.

However, the world turns, doesn't it? Collapse over here—if you remember COVID-19—is just a timing difference. It'll get there soon enough. There are no margins in a globalized economy, and margin calls come for us all. What affects canaries affects coal mines, and eventually capitalists too. And unlike Global South countries that are used to collapse, Global North countries will experience this coming crash as something cataclysmically new.

I've been saying we're due a Greatest Depression this decade, and I, for one, feel fine. Unlike South Asians who are catching a stray, the West deserves bullets in kind. I remember when 'Americans' acted like COVID was an Asian thing, until their stock market croaked and they finally reacted. Only this time will be worse, and there's no way to just ignore it. This is the big one, I can feel it. The Greatest Depression. Honestly, I feel good.

The Energy Bubble

The FT calling the AI bubble, though traders are just not picking up the phonex

At this point the entire Western economy is just a big, artificial bubble waiting to pop. Their stock market is just Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Oracle in a trenchcoat, selling each other dodgy GPUs and flashing investors. And what does this pyramid scheme depend on, at the very bottom? Energy, hideous amounts of it, literal money to burn. But now the whole pyramid scheme is sinking in the Middle East, where the dumbest money was.

As energy (and helium) get more expensive and dumb emirs stop investing, then what? Gold prices are now dropping as somebody unloads to meet margin calls. As I've said, there are no margins in a globalized economy. Ask not for whom the margin calls, it calls for you. A few exits quickly become an existential crisis quite soon. Because there's nothing real in this artificial economy, no productivity gains unleashed anywhere, the whole artificial economy is just a dog. And as they say in the American South, that dog don't hunt.

When this AI bubble pops, everything pops. AI is the Western economy, which has left base reality long ago. They tried to keep the fraud going with crypto, with the metaverse, and with AI they found a lie that stuck. But without cheap energy at the bottom of it, the pyramid scheme collapses. And this time they have far less tools to build it back up. Yes, they made the 2008 crash just go away by giving Monopoly-money to monopolists (and taking away people's homes). And, yes, they made COVID go away with the same trickery (sacrificing millions of souls). But, no, it won't work this time around, because something really real is really wrong.

As Vaclav Smil said in his book Energy and Civilization, “Energy is the only universal currency: one of its many forms must be transformed to get anything done.” That's where this collapse is coming from, not from mortgages which can be papered away or sick people that can just be killed off. It doesn't matter how much USD you print if the universal currency is overdrawn.

The Oil Spread

Five Oil Benchmarks, Michael McDonough using his Bloomberg Terminal

Just look at the oil markets, which are going bipolar trying to process the yawning contradiction. They're trading oil, on paper, at $107 (Brent) when it trades, over the barrel, at $162 for Asians (Oman). As you can see, this is not normal. The US Treasury is manipulating the paper price of oil with reserves and tweets while the actual commodity is taking an actual shit.

Via Araghchi

This is the biggest energy shock in history and to think it won't have economic effects is thinking that the Titanic won't sink. Hit a big enough iceberg and it will, and this is it. As Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi (God preserve him) said, “U.S. officials are posting fake news to manipulate markets. It won't protect them from inflationary tsunami they've imposed on Americans. Markets are facing biggest shortfall in HISTORY: bigger than Arab Oil Embargo, Iran's Islamic Revolution and the Kuwait invasion COMBINED.”

This is not a self-correcting problem, unless you think the 'Israel' will eject itself, which it won't. Iran has said it's ready to fight for 10 years though I think it'll be done by 2027, as Hamas's Sheikh Yassin predicted. But anyways, anything short of stopping now is too much for the global economy, which is already grinding gears without the necessary lubricants. But nobody's putting this genie back in the bottle, and it's got the global economy throttled. Now look at history and see what this means.

Historical prices, WTI. Oil prices never recovered after the shocks of the 1970s, and as Araghchi said, this is 2x worse.

Looking at the historical chart, you can see that post-war (for White people), oil prices were remarkably stable, you could literally build your economy on top of it. When the natives decided to take control of their resources, however, that led to the violent tussle we're just now seeing shake out. Oil prices became volatile and never recovered. Indeed, as America became a net oil exporter, they fed that volatility, physically attacking competitors in the Middle East, a process that unites all their wars into one World War.

You can thus understand the World War III (if you included colored people and Slavs) raging since 2001. America has been attacking competitors (Iraq, Libya, Syria, Russia, Venezuela, Iran) to corner the market for themselves. Not necessarily to take their oil, but to just take them out. Energy could either be priced in dollars and routed through the US Treasury (like Iraq and Venezuela) or just sanctioned out of the market (like Russia and Iran). The Empire doesn't really care. It's not even blood for oil, it's blood to spoil things for everyone else.

Despite this war against the world killing at least 5 million people from violence alone, plus tens of millions through sanctions (White word for sieges), nobody called it a World War because that can only come from a specific region in France or something, ie it has to bother White people. That's really the mentality. So now we're in the midst of the full-blown extermination of the largest concentration camp in history (Gaza), a madman invading countries on multiple continents, and no one calls it a World War because Europeans aren't bothered. But, oh, they will be, and I, for one, am here for it.

Isabella Weber calling the parallels to COVID-19

Europe

If you look at the map up top, you can see the other arm of Hormuz snaking up to Europe. America isolated Europe from Russia, forcing them to depend on more expensive energy from America and Qatar. Now Qatar is cut off, leaving Europe completely isolated. It couldn't happen to worse people, but, boy, are they going to hate it. And the dominoes won't stop there. Like I said, a globalized economy is, by definition, interconnected. 'America' is just delaying its fall by throwing 'allies' in front of them, but the margin calls for them too.

What I call the White Empire is losing World War III, as the Axis of Resistance marches inexorably towards Jerusalem. That's where the Carbon Crusaders will meet their end (again), in what the Resistance calls Al-Quds. When a Resistance fighter takes off their shoes to pray freely in Al-Aqsa Mosque, you'll know this is over. Not just the war, but the wartime economy that has presided since the forever war they called 'Cold'. The rules-based order, the petrodollar, the White Devil has many names, had many slaves, but it is losing now, inshallah.

The decades-long re-colonial struggle over oil is playing out in one epic holy battle, called Epic Fury by the Americans and the Ramadan War by Iran. To act like this won't leave a hole in the global economy—like it'll just affect Asians—is just wrong. People keep acting like this is all going back to some normal, but as God has been telling everyone since 2019 at least, there is no normal to go back to. Did COVID teach you nothing? As Allah told us long ago,

Have they not travelled the earth and seen how those before them met their end? God destroyed them utterly: a similar fate awaits those who deny the truth...

How many towns We have destroyed, greater in strength than your city which has driven you out, and there was no one to help them. Can then he who takes his stand on clear evidence from his God be likened to those for whom the evil that they do is made to look beautiful, and who follow their own desires? (47: 10-14)

Ain't it the truth? There is a new world order coming, which will look like disorder to those used to standing on the broken backs of billions. But what do we have to lose but our hydrocarbon chains? I'm not actually worried about us on the bottom of the world dealing with this collapse, though it falls on us first. We're used to it. This is the third major collapse that I've gone through personally. I got my batteries, I do my charity, I know the drill by now. But for those about to lose their petty bourgeois privileges—and you will—it's going to be a real reckoning. And I, for one, am here for it. Honestly, God damn you people, and They will, inshallah.