‘Israel’ is built for (and on) six-day wars. A quick show of strength, enabling them to live in oppression for years at a time. Deterrence is the name of the game. Defiance needs to be put down fast or the colony overheats and starts to come apart.
‘Israel’ is simply not built for 100+ day wars like they’re fighting now, and it’s showing. Perhaps 470,000 colonizers have left ‘Israel’ entirely. At least 200,000 have been internally displaced, and nearly 300,000 have been mobilized into the genocidal army for longer than ever before. Casualties are highly censored, but even their own newspapers are reporting 4,000 disabled, potentially going up to 30,000.
We’ll go through these exploding pie charts one by one but, spoiler alert, ‘Israel’ now as at least 1 million people committed to war or omitted from occupied territory. With a population of roughly 10 million total and 7.2 million Jews with full colonial rights, ‘Israel’ can’t sustain this level of mobilization and decolonization for long. That 1 million lost in the Al Aqsa flood is 10% of the population and more of the workforce.
Meanwhile the Resistance has killed or disabled nearly 5% of the military, many of them officers. This is a significant destabilization of the colonial state, and the situation is not stabilizing any time soon. ‘Israel’ has war crimes on its side, but time is on the side of the Palestinians, and it’s not just them. The whole region is in rebellion. White Empire can kill civilians every day, but its colonizing days are fundamentally numbered.
But don’t take my word for it, let’s break the pie chart down and go through those numbers.
We’ll start with occupied Palestine. ‘Israel’ is not real and is just a terrible colonial hangover. ‘Israel’ is the site of an incomplete genocide that they’re trying their damnedest to finish, but they have major demographic problems. Palestinians have resisted by persisting and ‘Israel’ simply doesn’t have the time or resources to genocide or ethnically cleanse everyone.
While ‘Israel’ managed to violently push the natives out of majority status in a certain geography, this is just a carnivorous accounting trick. ‘Israel’s’ nearly 7.2 million population of ‘full-rights’ Jews is nearly matched by 6 million disenfranchised Palestinians on the physical land of Palestine. ‘Israel’s’ apartheid population is complete outnumbered if you include the Palestinian diaspora just in the region. Meanwhile the entire neighboring population hates ‘Israel’, as does the global majority. Keeping the darkies out and justice at bay requires constant colonial violence, and this requires certain numbers. So let’s look at bullshit ‘Israel’s’ bullshit numbers, to get a sense of their military problem.
For context, ‘Israel’s’ de jure population is about 10 million total, of which 7.2 million are Jews, (ie on the right side of apartheid). . Among the ‘children of darkness’ there are 2+ million Arabs, 550,000 ‘other’, and roughly 225,000 foreign workers. This gets us to a rough 10 million total, but this is an academic number in an apartheid state. ‘Israel’ is officially a “Jewish nation state,” and 7.2 million is the population it can draw on for its colonial army. As part of its apartheid practices, full conscription (male and female) only applies to ‘Israeli’ Jews. This is the relevant cross-section, which we’ll cover in the next section.
The Occupation Burden
Of the colonial population, a big percentage has to be actively colonizing or the whole enterprise falls apart. This is the devil’s bargain that Zionists made with the antisemitic White Empire. Give us this land and we’ll make our children your conscript army near the gas station.
Theoretically, over 3 million ‘Israelis’ (aged roughly aged 17–49) are available for occupation services, but in practice just a quarter of the eligible population ends up serving, a number that has been steadily trending downwards. Israel has about 170,000 active personnel and 465,000 reservists with very little training (at least 20 days in the past three years is considered adequate). These people aren’t even trusted to carry loaded guns in training, but they can do a little little genocide with heavy weaponry against Palestinians.
For our purposes, let’s say ‘Israel’ can reliably muster 500,000 people to keep the natives down, and none of these people are particularly reliable or pass muster. This is not a good (ie, well-trained) army, nor do they have much staying power. In practice, ‘Israelis’ reservists act like they’re on a teenage ‘Deathright’ tour. They run around making war crime TikToks that get the whole country indicted in The Hague.
Meanwhile in actual combat against people that shoot back, they get shot. ‘Israel’ has not won a ground war since 2002 and relies on imperial carpet bombing to terrify the native population into submission. When they don’t submit, however, ‘Israel’ has a major problem. It cannot actually fight well or fight for very long at all.
‘Israel’s’ population of 10 million is not huge, and pulling 5% of your population out to beat the natives has a disproportionate effect on the economy (what they actually worship, as colonizers). Losing so much of their workforce more than decimates the economy, and ‘Israel’ fundamentally has a lower tolerance for pain than the long-suffering Palestinians. As the martyr Basil Al-Araj said in 2014, “Our direct human and material losses will be much greater than the enemy’s, which is natural in guerrilla wars that rely on willpower, the human element, and the extent of patience and endurance. We are far more capable of bearing the costs, so there is no need to compare or be alarmed by the magnitude of the numbers.” Hence ‘Israel’s’ comparatively few losses are still relatively disastrous for them. And in this 100+ day war, ‘Israel’ is facing a disaster.
The Al Aqsa Flood
Israeli’s entire existence is based on having this military force and not using it in actual battle. The idea is to oppress Palestinian civilians so much that they can’t resist, and to scare ‘Israel’s’ neighbors so much that they stay out of it. To win without firing a shot or, more accurately, to win by shooting rock-throwing children. Deterrence is the name of the game, and defiance is a big problem. This is precisely the problem that Palestine has now caused in spades.
On October 7th, the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and many allies responded to a century of oppression with a day of resistance. As they said in a recent memo called “Our Narrative”, “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on Oct. 7 targeted the Israeli military sites, and sought to arrest the enemy’s soldiers to pressure on the Israeli authorities to release the thousands of Palestinians held in Israeli jails through a prisoners exchange deal. Therefore, the operation focused on destroying the Israeli army’s Gaza Division, the Israeli military sites stationed near the Israeli settlements around Gaza.”
The Al Aqsa Flood effectively ‘flooded’ the fundamentally fragile ‘Israeli’ Occupation Forces. They broke through the cage around Gaza, disabled 40% of the IOF's communication sites, decimated ‘Israel’s’ Gaza Division and decapitated (not literally) much of their leadership. ‘Israel’ responded with a total, wild-eyed freak out, as documented by their own media. They ordered airstrikes on their own positions, mindlessly strafed their own civilians, and generally shit the bed in military terms. The illusion of military superiority and even basic competence was shattered.
‘Israel’s’ entire existence is based on having a big, scary army that deters attacks but the IOF A) didn’t deter the Al Aqsa Flood and B) have only made things worse in the 100 days since. The IOF has been horrifying the world with war crimes against civilians and humiliating themselves against actual combatants. Al Jazeera and Telegram are full of videos (censored in the West) of the Palestinian Resistance systematically destroying ‘Israeli’ troops in combat. Westerners see only the atrocities, but the Arab world also sees ‘Israeli’ military incompetence, which is a fatal combination (for them). They lose both Western support and regional deterrence.
‘Israel’ tried to respond to the Al Aqsa Flood with a show of strength, but killing children isn’t strength. They’re losing to men in the field, and only showing more weakness to their enemies. Far from being beaten, the Resistance is emboldened and spreading all around the region and, indeed, the world. The western press is even more censored and servile than the Israeli media so you wouldn’t know it, but you can infer ‘Israel’s’ military defeat by its lack of military victory. Military victory is not, in fact, destroying hospitals and killing women and children. Military victory is beating the other military and accomplishing your objectives. ‘Israel’ has done none of the above. As Ali says on Resistance Channel:
The enemy suffered a fatal blow on October 7 and has been unable to achieve any of its objectives in Gaza to date.
- No living prisoner has been recovered.
- Hamas military wing leaders have not been killed.
- The resistance’s capabilities have not been destroyed.
- Global support is diminishing, leading to international isolation.
- There is no post-war plan in place.
Therefore, until now,
- Zionist settlers lack confidence in the army’s ability to protect them (both at the Lebanon border and in Gaza).
- The enemy cannot sustain a prolonged high-intensity confrontation in Gaza, as their army is exhausted and resistance is slowly depleting their ground forces.
- Expanding the conflict with Hezbollah comes with a high cost, making it a risky venture without guaranteed success.
As Ali says, huge chunks of ‘civilians’ have either left the country or left their ‘settlements’. Meanwhile huge chunks of the working-age population are mobilized with no signs of standing down. They’re taking (for them) serious losses and getting nowhere.‘Israel’ hasn’t ‘pacified’ Gaza, the West Bank is fighting back, Hezbollah and even Iraqis are hitting them in the north, and they’ve lost Red Sea access to Yemen in the south.
Forget deterrence, the entire region is in open defiance. And, globally, ‘Israel’ has been indicted for genocide. ‘Israel’s’ small but belligerent population is stuck in a long war, something they’re simply not designed for. What they needed was a six-day punch followed by six decades of submission. Now they’ve been at war for over 100 days, with no end in site. This is an existential problem for ‘Israel’, inshallah. Now we’ll return to our first pie chart, to repeat how bad ‘Israeli’ society has sharded.
I’ll repeat the toplines number again.
Perhaps 470,000 colonizers have left ‘Israel’ entirely. At least 200,000 have been internally displaced, and nearly 300,000 have been mobilized. Of those soldiers at least 5,000 are wounded or dead, potentially going up to 30,000.
We’re looking at a population blowout of 1 million people, which is 10% of the total population, nearly 15% of the Jewish population, and more of the workforce. We’re looking at attrition of 5% of the military, many of them officers. As I said,this is a significant destabilization of the colonial state, and the situation is not stabilizing any time soon.
As Israel’s War (Criminal) Minister Gallant said, “If the fate of Hamas is not complete dismantlement, we will not be able to live in the State of Israel.” Even a genocidal clock is right twice a day. By ‘Israel’s’ own metrics, they are deep underwater. Hamas is nowhere near disarmed, the entire region is up in arms, and the whole world is against them. All they have is the western ruling class, and they’re not long for this world either.
As ‘Israel’ says on their Twitter, ‘we are not OK’ and it’s true. ‘Israel’ was a bad idea in the first place, but the execution is increasingly terrible. It’s just massacre after massacre without accomplishing anything militarily, and just making it more clear why ‘Israel’ (the state) needs to go the way of Rhodesia or Nazi Germany. They fucking suck, and they suck at sucking. They need to go into the historical dustbin where they belong. And we’re at the arc of history where that happens, right before the fall of White Empire and global ‘civilization’ in general.
At some point, the American economy and entire empire is going to crash and ‘Israel’ will have to stand on its own, which it cannot do. At some slightly further point, economical oil reserves will also crash, and keeping a divide-and-conquer garrison near the gas station will make no sense at all. At another point, global ‘civilization’ itself will collapse, and the natives will inherit the ruins. After violent bouts of throwing up blood, the long colonial hangover will end soon enough. Millions of people will die, but ‘Israel’, ‘America’ and the whole wretched ‘White Empire’ will die within our lifetimes, that is certain. The colonial center cannot hold. You can see it spinning out shards in ‘Israel’ right now, in the ‘middle’ of the world.