Whoever said markets were good for processing information was obviously selling something. At least a quarter of the global economy has blown out and ‘the market’ is like this is fine. As Karl Marx said, in Capital, “In every stock-jobbing swindle everyone knows that some time or other the crash must come, but everyone hopes that it may fall on the head of his neighbour, after he himself has caught the shower of gold and placed it in secure hands. Après moi le déluge! is the watchword of every capitalist and of every capitalist nation.”

After a literal déluge, the Al-Aqsa Flood which the martyr Yahya Sinwar announced saying, “By God, I see it (a war) with my own eyes that will transform the planet. It will be a regional and religious war that will burn everything, both green and dry,” after all this, they still can't see. They still think there's some returning to the nefarious normal after this. There isn't, God willing.

All these oily analysts are up their own asses, refusing to understand the physical basis of any ‘asset’. They're just a bunch of highly paid sheep, being herded by tweet. Any time you ask them how much oil is available, they say, “Yes, sir, yes, sir, Three bags full.”

But it just ain't so. I live in Sri Lanka and we have fuel rationing already, I haven't had a full tank for weeks. But Sri Lankans are expected to struggle and people in the imperial core think they can money print their way out of reality. But we've all been here before, haven't we? A global crisis that few believed in until they, themselves, were choking on it? White people didn't think they could catch the ‘Wuhan flu’ and they think they're immune to this West Asian financial contagion too.

It's a pointless exercise, this, but here's a bunch of graphs and paragraphs from imperial sources to show what's about to blow. It doesn't really matter if you're convinced here, in a few weeks you'll know.

Physical Reality

Roughly 27% of the global oil trade (crude oil and petroleum) used to go through the Strait of Hormuz along with 22% of liquified natural gas (LNG). Byproducts are just as important, and just as impotent. The blockade of Hormuz blocks 30% of helium (used for semiconductors), 33% of fertilizer, and nearly 25% of sulfur (used for leaching minerals, ie basic mining).

This information is via a US government report, so it's not like the Great Satan doesn't know. They just don't care, on a collective level that makes markets useless for processing information. All trading is insider trading in the US now. They may report on facts, boringly, but nobody acts accordingly. They just look at how other traders react, and pat each others' backs. As long as no one spooks, everyone can cook the books, so the charade continues. As Upton Sinclair said, “It's difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

The 'free-market' is an abstraction almost completely divorced from reality. There are so many dumb index funds and government intervention that the market has to go up, whatever happens in reality. But the physical reality is that energy is the economy and this energy, which used to be plenty, is now running on empty.

As another useless March 20th report from Goldman Satanists says, “We estimate that the hit to total oil flows from the Persian Gulf stands at 17.6mb/d (17% of global supply), making today’s shock the largest in history and 18 times larger than the peak April 2022 hit to Russian oil production. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are down 97% from their normal levels.”

You can see the collapse of the world's main energy artery from the amount of tonnage moving (via Bloomberg). Nothing is moving, certainly not in capacities needed by the imperial economy.

Now to see where this is going, remember that oil (and especially natural gas) are a flow. Stopping it for even a moment stops it for a long time, it takes a while to get the flow going. Hence big companies like Qatar Energy, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and Bapco Energies have declared force majeure already, meaning they cannot deliver in the future. Even if there's a ceasefire now, it will take weeks or months to get production restarted, and then further months to get the supply refloated. Then you have to account for the fact that this fragile infrastructure has been physically blown up and is a target in an active warzone.

According the FT, “QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan vast industrial site was hit by missiles on March 18 and 19 after Israel bombed petrochemical facilities and the South Pars gasfield in Iran. The Iranian retaliatory strikes marked one of the most significant escalations of the war, with ballistic missiles slamming into the world’s largest LNG facility in two waves. The company said the damage to the LNG facility would affect about 17 per cent of its exports and take three to five years to repair.”

In the same way, because they're also fake countries, production and storage capacity in Kuwait, UAE, and Saudi Arabia have all been damaged. This was the Middle Eastern branch of White Empire and as the bough breaks, the cradle will fall. The FT says, “The attacks on fields mean Saudi Arabia’s usual 12mn b/d production capacity has been cut — for an indeterminate period of time—by at least 5 per cent,” and “Two of Kuwait’s oil refineries — Mina Al Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah — have suffered serious damage from multiple strikes.” The UAE is more cagey about its losses, but it has been hit the most out of everybody. None of these nabobs are returning to normal any time soon and, anyways, these chihuahuas are trained to keep barking. They want more war, not less, even as it returns them to the desert.

The back up capacity that's supposed to buffer the world markets against shocks like this is unfortunately in the Middle East lol. Talking about the region as a whole, the US Congress report cited above says, “The region hosts more than 30% of world crude oil production, more than 75% of standby crude oil production capacity, and approximately 11% of refining capacity.” Even if losing the main energy source for Asia doesn't bother the global White Empire, the loss of its global backup should. There simply is no backup for Hormuz.

People talk about Saudi using its East-West pipeline to avoid the Persian Gulf, but that's a joke. As the Goldman Satanists report says, “We estimate that the hit to total oil flows from the Persian Gulf stands at 17.6mb/d (17% of global supply)... The extent of redirection is capped by the combined spare capacity of the two pipelines—our latest estimate of net redirections stands at just 1.8mb/d.” This pipeline doesn't have capacity, and has also been hit by Iran, can be hit at will, and Ansarallah controls the Red Sea also where these ships would load. There is nowhere for this oil to go unless the Resistance says so. And until there is justice in the land, the Resistance says no.

This is the vital point. Until the attacks on Iran, and Lebanon, and Palestine stop, they say no. Until reparations are paid to them, everyone else can face the sanctions they have lived under for decades now. Iran is exporting more than ever for higher prices. It's not their funeral.

The Geopolitics

One fascinating bit of geopolitics buried in the Goldman Satanist's report is that it shows you the history of oil shocks. And now, it appears obvious that Empire caused them. After Iran became independent, 'America' backed Iraq to attack them. They then overthrew Libya and Syria and have now attacked Iran. The conventional wisdom is that 'America' is responding to these shocks, but if you find the same historical arsonist at every crime scene, you have to assume they're the criminals.

As a net oil and arms exporter, 'America's' business model is simple. If 'America' can't get your oil, they'll spoil it for everyone, and proliferate the weapons to do it. The point is not dividing and conquering the Middle East. Just dividing will do it.

You don't need to follow me. Just follow the money. As Isabella Weber, who wrote the great book How China Escaped Shock Therapy, said to 'American' state media recently,

Isabella Weber, a professor of economics at UMass Amherst, worked on a paper that found that in 2022, after Russia launched its full- scale invasion of Ukraine, the global oil industry brought in some $916 billion in profits. The U.S. was the chief beneficiary, raking in $301 billion, some seven times the pre- COVID average annual profits for U.S.-headquartered oil and gas companies. Weber says this money, through shareholder payouts, disproportionately flowed to the very wealthy. "We find that 50% of the profits in the oil and gas industry went to the top 1% richest Americans, whereas only 1% of those profits went to the bottom 50%, she says.

As much as 'American' media bemoans 'instability' in the world, remember POSIWID, the Point Of A System Is What It Does. 'American' imperialism is very much a system of a down for everyone else. Chaos is a ladder for them, as Littlefinger said, and they spread it with bombs.

Those you can see that the blood-for-oil wars are really blood to spoil. They're not so much seizing oil (though they do) as much as spoiling it for others. They're not really conquering as much as attacking the competition.

Richard Medhurst discusses this sort of strategy, calling it the Petro-Gas Dollar, and the US a pirate state. I think he has an important perspective, but I disagree that it's working. 'America' could attack Venezuela, Iraq, Russia, Libya, or even Iran, that didn't much matter because those places were sanctioned already.

But when Iran fought back and took control of Hormuz, that UNO-reversed sanctions on all the Empire's vassal. Suddenly Saudi, UAE, and Qatar were effectively sanctioned, and everyone downstream of them, including the Empire itself. There isn't a plan here beyond how Trump planned for casinos. Controlled demolition, while he somehow gets paid for it. I simply don't ascribe that much agency to the White Empire anymore. Iran are their own subjects of history, and they're writing quite differently.

Understand that White Empire is an empire, globalization served it, it wasn't for our benefit. Look under the tags of the clothes people in the Empire wear, or the gadgets that make their miserable lives disappear, none of it is made there. These treats are the only things that keep they distracted and meek, while everything they have to get locally (healthcare, education) has inflated beyond reach. Even if America has its own oil, it does not have its own economy. It is an Empire, and cannibalizing that empire has consequences.

The oil shock has already hit their imperial bag-men (since the Vietnam War) in Asia, leading to force majeures in Singapore. The helium shocks will hit semiconductor makers in Taiwan, who keep their AI bubble inflated. 'Americans' eat food like everybody else, and fertilizer and plastic (packaging) shocks will hit them too. Supply shocks hitting Asia will not be self-contained. Who do you think we're supplying, fools? The current situation very much reminds me of COVID, which Trump tried to call the ‘Wuhan Flu’, as if White people can't catch flus too.

You can see the COVID/War parallel in this other Goldman graph circulating (though I can't find the full report). You can clearly see a massive demand shock in 2020 as people stopped using fuel under lockdown. Now remember that these lockdowns were the most successful in China, which did them competently and in an organized fashion. Meanwhile the West waited till the last (too late) moment and locked down in a disorganized, disastrous fashion that didn't work and discredited public health in general. That's precisely what's happening now, or what's about to. They're acting like they can't catch the financial flu, and will have a catastrophic response once it becomes obvious that they do, and it will be, inshallah, the Greatest Depression that completely ruins them.

The biggest oil supply shock in history is winding its way around the globe and in a globalized economy nobody except the people used to living under sanctions will escape sanction. The supply bomb is set on a different fuse for everyone, but it's the same bomb, and it's already gone off.

The situation today is very much like COVID where different countries kept falling and 'Americans' kept insisting they were somehow different, until they got hit the worst and never recovered from it. I used to wonder why Pharaoh didn't learn after multiple plagues and now I get it. Those who think they are everything can learn nothing.

It may appear that 'America' is attacking its usual enemies, but it is, in fact, destroying its usual allies, and collapsing in on itself, like our sun will one day go white dwarf. Outgassing to violently envelop the inner planets and collapsing into a lump of coal. You can see it happening. Europe got deindustrialized by 'America's' attack on Russia, the United Arab Eunuchs are getting destroyed by its attack on Iran, and 'America' will soon pay dearly.

Markets as an information processing mechanism would, ideally, give them an early warning system (especially futures markets, which are literally supposed to predict this) but all trading in the United States is insider trading and they're all in on it. So now let's look at these markets, which require suspending everything you know about arithmetic, supply and demand, and common sense. This Carbon Casino is really least important part of the equation, but it's the only one 'Americans' really care about, so let's get into it.

Supply And Dumbasses

The White Markets are just a bunch of gamblers wishing, and the White House is led by a man who somehow lost money in the casino business. Trump Casinos went bankrupt thrice and were demolished. Like Moe Greene in The Godfather, Trump lost a game where the house always wins. So now, he's getting the ‘Moe Greene Special.’ “A message job, through the eye,” like Big Pussy said in The Sopranos.

The closest a capitalist has to a heart is his wallet and the closest he has to an eye is the markets. All markets are futures markets (in the sense that they're bets on future value) but futures markets are literally so, and they're supposed to flash warning signs coming. But oil futures have gone cross-eyed and the traders are just looking at each other.

A lot of highly paid traders and analysts have the same information I've cited here —I've cited only imperial sources—but they're impervious to logic. As Sinclair said, it's hard to convince someone of something when their salary depends on them not understanding it. There's a lot of quants that can't count and a lot of economists that can't equate. If there's less supply in the market, prices should go up, unless you're betting on things staying the same, in which case, just wish it away.

This really is the attitude. Markets have ceased to be people betting against each other to better estimate reality and have become algorithms and index funds colluding to keep the looting going. As one example, from another Goldman Satanists report on AI, they call the whole thing bubble, but then say to stay invested in the bubble, because everyone else is doing it. Jim Covello says “Over-building things the world doesn’t have use for, or is not ready for, typically ends badly,” but in the same breath also says, “That said, one of the most important lessons I've learned over the past three decades is that bubbles can take a long time to burst. That’s why I recommend remaining invested in AI infrastructure providers.” Can you imagine? The tooth fairy isn't real, but everyone believes in her, so pull out your teeth as well.

On some level, everybody knows the Empire has no clothes, but nobody wants to say it because they're all busy selling imaginary linen. Just look at the oil futures market today, it makes absolutely no sense. We just went through a bunch of graphs and charts showing how there's less oil in the future, but these guys are just like no, I don't think so.

It's not that oil futures are underpricing risk. They've got it backwards. Despite, effectively, having a limb (25%) of the global economy lopped off, markets are reacting like the knight from Monty Python. ‘Tis but a flesh wound.’ And the 'American' military, having lost all its Gulf bases, is reacting like aforementioned knight when he lost all his limbs, saying “All right, we'll call it a draw” in Pakistan, and then immediately reverting to “I'll bite your legs off!” when Iran just walked away from them.

These are not serious people. As this Professor Steve Hanke says, somewhat laconically, “The futures price for Brent crude is around $109/bbl. But physical oil is trading closer to $145/bbl. THAT'S AN UNUSUALLY LARGE PRICE GAP. THE FUTURES MARKET WILL EVENTUALLY BE MUGGED BY REALITY, AND THE GAP WILL BE CLOSED.” This is another way of saying the White Empire has no clothes, and no limbs to stand on.

You can see reality already trying to have a word, first through the real spread between what Asian pay for jet fuel and Brent, which nobody cares about (what are we, a bunch of ASIANS?), but then next through the same spread for Europeans.

When this hits North America is just a timing difference. Even if you have your own oil, oil will go where the money is, and prices will rise everywhere. North Americans just have more time to prepare, but in their typical fashion, waste it without a care.

People in the imperial core may not be feeling it quite yet, but wait for it. There's a time delay on supply shocks that markets are supposed to price in, but the imperial markets are like 'Israel's' Iron Dome, not working. To put it in terms traders understand, even if you feel high because you just did some coke, if the dealer has been arrested, the party's over, no joke. Traders are, however, high on their own supply, and all the facts in the world won't convince them of an idea whose time has come. But nothing can stop it either.

I remember the precious weeks wasted trying to explain COVID to people trying to alternately hammer and dance with a disease, or those who just wanted to just sneeze on each other and drink bleach. The lesson I learned from that was why bother? Just give it a few weeks.