I just read an interesting report from the Social Scientists Association. They polled 1,500 people across Sri Lanka on a variety of issues, from how they felt about the economy to the ethnic issue to the current government.
It’s a short, well-presented report. What I’ll do is compare what the main parties are running on (IMHO) and how that compares to how the public feels. This blog post is obviously told through my opinion (want to continue the good governance thing rather than going backwards), but the report should stand on its own.
UPFA
Let’s try this again – racism and infrastructure!
The UPFA, as basically led by Mahinda now, can be sorta judged by what Mahinda said. Mahinda has said that power was taken from him by minorities, and that development has slowed down since he left. How much does that message resonate?.
Racism FTW?
The Sinhala Feels
On other questions like whether the Sinhala community has been ignored, most people said they disagreed. Including most Sinhala people.
The Buddhist Feels
Overall the religions seem happy, however, if you look at the breakdown by religion, 14% of Buddhist do feel like their religion has been undermined. How I don’t know, but it’s a constant insecurity. Other religions do feel more protected now. That said, the vast majority of Buddhists feel like their religious interests have been ensured more or stayed the same.
The danger playing the religion card is that you can’t piss off all of the minorities at once and win a general election. When Mahinda won in the past it was with a good amount of Muslim support.
The Ethnic Feels
Regarding how ethnic communities feel, I’m just showing the total number here. If you break it down, 18.7% of Sinhalese felt like their interests have been undermined compared to 35% that thought they were the same and 29.7% that thought they were ensured.
There has always been an angle to run on racism in Sri Lanka and there is an angle here. If most people don’t care about the rights of the minorities then the Sinhala/Buddhist chauvinists could swing things. So do people care?
The Sri Lankan Feels
I was heartened to see this, that the vast majority of people thinks that the government should do more to protect minorities.
People seem to actually care about good ethnic relations and they say that the trust this government, under Maithripala Sirisena, to keep improving them.
Infrastructure FTW?
The other big thing that Mahinda ran on was all these big infrastructure projects.
In this case while people may broadly agree that infrastructure projects have deteriorated, the real question is whether people ever liked big, often corrupt infrastructure projects as much as Mahinda and his cronies did. Last election they didn’t.
UNF (UNFGG)
The UNP led United National Front, also know as the United National Front For Good Governance, is running to basically continue the work of the last election.
Good governance and cost of living
The UNF is broadly running on continuing their 100 day (plus) plans of reforming the government, not necessarily building stuff, with attention to improving the daily situation of people. How is that going?
Good Governance FTW?
People seem to generally feel more free than before. I certainly do, seeing as criminals and goons are the ones in trouble with the law, rather than in control of it. Few people say they’re feeling less free.
49% of people think the rule of law situation has improved and less than 10% think it’s gotten worse.
There’s also a question which asks how people feel about this current government (essentially UNFGG) has performed:
People seem generally satisfied. 56.6% of respondents, actually, which is better than they polled.
Cost Of Living FTW?
The other major issue they ran on last time and presumably this time was addressing the cost of living concerns that affect people more than an airport or cricket stadium in their neighborhood.
When the January 8th government came in they prioritized a lot of immediate relief in their budget, and it seems like people have felt it. Which matters. How does that directly translate into the situation of individual families?
The most people say their personal economic situation hasn’t changed, followed by people that feel it’s gotten a little better.
So What?
So read the report, first off. My impressions are that this current government’s approval ratings are pretty high and that racism and ethnic/religious division aren’t as potent wedges as the UPFA is hoping. I hope they aren’t, and that we can continue the good governance thing. Not that the UNP is great governance by any stretch, but they are subject to checks and balances and public pressure more than the naturally dictatorial Mahinda and the dodgy buggers around him. But that’s just my opinion. The SSA survey results, as mentioned, are interesting on their own.
Not feeling this.
indi,
report may be true but winning elections is something else. What you need to consider is the changes in vote bases after the January election. Did UPFA vote base increased or decreased? Did UNP vote base increased or decreased?
An informal ‘buddy’ poll also tells me the same story. The funny thing is even the guys who swear by MR admit that he was authoritarian and even dictatorial. Reminds one of a battered wife who sticks in a sado-masochist relationship with a domineering husband.
So, it can be safely inferred from this poll that about 1.2% – 2.6% of Sri Lankans are irredeemable fucktards!
I talk to the tuk-tuk drivers when I get into one to get a pulse of what they think. They are overwhelmingly anti-MR. I feel the general consensus is that UPFA has lost significant ground since January. They are also contesting being out of power, would not get majority. Mahinda may get elected for a seat in Kunrunagala but certainly no PM. What a sight it would be to see an ex-president sitting on opposition bench as an MP.
In my area (Hikkaduwa and Galle) there was more support for MR during the presidential elections than now. People are realising things are actually kind of slowly getting better and easier for people in day-to-day life. Like you say these things take time and things are by no means perfect but where are they anywhere? I just came back from Europe where things are actually getting a little bit out of control. I can’t see this election going any other way than a green majority (like Ranil or not, he has the experience to do his job and I actually believe he has learnt from past mistakes and MY3 is a big influence on his governance as a PM). Wish I could vote but am as always a mere bystander (or moaner!).
Gungan,
well what was their previous political opinion? You know most people inside colombo are overwhelmingly UNP and it is little to do with policy (there is a reason why Colombo city is always won by the UNP and why there is always a UNP mayor despite the obvious bad job of managing the city).
My reading is lot of educated young people who voted for MS are disappointed. Considerable no of them will vote JVP. UNPs biggest strength will be formerly demoralized UNPers who did not vote in previous elections due to Ranil.
So will I’m no seer, I would say it will be a very uphill task for the UNP to get a majority. Only chance they got is to get MS help and bribe (with ministerial posts) some MPs from MR camp. Consider the the fact that MR won around 90 out of 160 electorates in the presidential election and consider whether peoples living condition improved enough to make it other wise.
And when we talk about rajapakshe racism, do you know who who invited gotabaya (GR) to attend that much publicized BBS event? Well two people invited him and one was Milinda Moragoda (other one wasn’t Nanasara if you are wondering abut that).
And according to JHU strategists (“Yuga Peraliya”) BBS was covertly supported by both JHU and UNP (financially) because both saw BBS as a means of alienating the sinhala buddhist basis of Rajapakse (And it was successful. obviously Rajapashe clan failed to manage the BBS properly). If Rajapakshe eliminated the BBS, then it would alienate sinhala buddhists. If they did not it would alienate others. Rajapakshe did nothing and alienate both.
Sack preaching the conspiracy theory.
FYI this is not a Colombo only report. Samples are taken throughout the 22 electoral districts and 2 electorates per district.
Here’s the link for the full report. Go and read it.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/269576572/Sri-Lanka-Political-Weather-Analysis-June-2015
MR,
which part do you consider as “conspiracy theory”?
And i know it’s not a colombo only report. indi said that in his second sentence.
My point was that this report was not about the polls.
I’m always interested in random polls, politicians of course do not like them, unless it’s in their favour.
Is 1,400 indicative of 21 million? It’s difficult to say isn’t it.
How pleasing to see that most felt religious beliefs and prospects for the future looked positive, both are true representative of where the future is heading.
I’m not super intelligent like you Sri Lankans are, your political system from my eyes resembles a quagmire, how precarious your road ahead is, but feel proud that you all are contributing.
In my country not everyone even cares enough to vote, some see it as a chore while trampling over the fact that a citizens right to vote is an absolute privilege, it’s probably the only time where citizens are all equal.
Sri Lanka has lost 30 years of paradise because of the terrorists, with your government forced to spend hundreds and thousands of dollars on defence, it’s no wonder your economy is in tatters, but please don’t lose heart, the world is no longer ignoring your calls for assistance.
People want to know that they are safe to plan a future and have children, it’s your right to feel hesitant, my heart breaks for you.
Regardless of wether you like MAHINDA RAJAPAKSA or not, he has saved your lives and your beautiful Island, he’s not going to be a politician forever, eventually he will stand aside for younger ones to have their turn, but the current unstable climate of unrest and mistrust, dictates that a strong leader is required.
I’ve read a lot about your current politicians sexual preferences, it doesn’t matter who they chose to share their bed with, that’s their own private business, does not indicate that they are not good men.
I see the main concerns currently, being India waiting for ( any) Sri Lankan government to crumble, then they will come to claim what they see as ‘their little pearl’ then they will sell those vital shipping lanes to America, very troubling.
We have a saying in my country:
“Don’t pick up mud from the ground and throw it in your own face”
The colonial rule is over, the war with the LTTE is over ( for the time being anyway) you are forging your way towards restoring your beautiful once treasured global dignity.
In Australia currently huge funds are being raised for the purchase of land in the North, also money to rearm the LTTE, as well as massive money to purchase votes for the 17 th, are you going to just sit back and allow that to happen? Have your white sands soaked with red blood again, will you let that happen?
Please have the foresight to elect MR, regardless of wether you like him or not, he is a comited father who has given a public promise, in front of the entire world:
“North, South, East, West….you are all my children”
Good luck beautiful people.
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