Much of the international press seems unable to grasp that Sri Lankan voters might have determined the recent election. They’re saying that Indian intelligence did it, or only America can push reforms forward. Actually I guess that’s just the New York Times. Let’s look at both propositions.
1. India Did It
When Sri Lanka unexpectedly turfed out President Mahinda Rajapaksa in an election this month, it was the biggest setback in decades for China’s expansion into South Asia – and a remarkable diplomatic victory for India. (NYTimes)
As they say, victory has many fathers but defeat is an orphan.
This article, via Reuters, circulates the usual rumours that Indian intelligence brought the opposition together. They actually quote this line – “At least that was the perception of Mahinda Rajapkasa,” said M.A. Sumanthiran”. Someone talking about the perception of someone else is hardly proof of anything. India presumably would have been meeting with both sides, but saying that they’re kingmakers is A) unproven and B) unlikely.
I say unlikely, because there’s only so much India could ever do. I don’t remember the source, but I heard a quote that went something like – ‘democracy comes down to a little man in a little booth and I will never know what goes on in his mind’. India can talk to any politician but they can’t move many votes, except in the opposite direction. If anything, Mahinda had more overt support from India – supposedly employing Modi’s social media guru (fail) and campaigning with Salman Khan (epic fail).
However much India seems to benefit from this election, that doesn’t mean they caused it to happen. Farmers benefit from the rain but they don’t cause it, unless you believe in rain dancing. Motivation is not causation.
2. Only The US Can Help
The country must make sure that members of the ousted regime do not return to power and that the new government can secure its authority. The United States — and only the United States — can do something to help make that happen. (NYTimes)
Sigh. The proposition Ryan Goodman makes here is that the US should prosecute Gotabaya Rajapaksa as a war criminal because he’s a dual citizen. Never mind the hypocrisy of going after someone here when the definite war criminal Dick Cheney is on US television defending torture. This is precisely the kind of sanctimonious meddling that offends everyone and doesn’t help.
The article is called ‘Sri Lanka’s New Democracy’ and what Mr. Goodman doesn’t seem to understand is that Sri Lanka’s democracy A) isn’t new and that B) we’re a sovereign country. Unlike Dick Cheney, Gotabaya Rajapaksa actually won a war and his brother won nearly 50% of the votes in this country. If they want to run for office again that is, honestly, the business of the Sri Lankan people. We do not need America to come here and prosecute the losers of our elections. What happened here wasn’t a coup, it was an election.
Besides how offensive this crap is, it is also politically toxic. No one from ever party is ever going to support the US prosecuting a Sri Lankan. Indeed, even being perceived to be with the US on this is political suicide, and for good reason. We’ve been colonized and no voters want to be meddled with be foreign powers. Thankfully, Mr. Goodman doesn’t represent the US government, because if his ideas were policy they would be disastrous.
What Actually Happened
A lot of international commentators are trying to find a cause they understand for something which was actually quite simple. Sri Lanka is a democracy, we’ve actually had universal franchise for longer than the US and UK. We had an election. More people voted for one guy rather than the other. He won. I’m not saying there wasn’t House Of Cards type maneuvering going on behind the scenes and I’m not denying that countries like the US and India have an interest here. But they, thankfully, don’t have a vote.
Sri Lankan voters determined this election, not international puppeteers behind the scenes. It’s funny how the international press actually seems to believe the same conspiracy theories that Mahinda supporters have been spreading. They’re both wrong.
1) Almost all leaders of opposition visited Singapore in the month of November.
2) Mayithree was invited to USA in 2013 or 2012. (Fonseka visited US embassy several times before falling out with Rajapakshe)
3) Mangala’s second and third homes were London and Singapore.
4) There is talk about a “singapore principles” by pro LTTE elements already.
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=79&artid=37606
5) All chinese projects are been halted by the new government. But deals with Euro entities are going forward without any controversy.
6) Mangala goes to India and pledges 13A. Like were entitled to.
7) I think Ranil’s first visit was also India.
8) New president’s first visit will also be India.
9) An Indian PM is visiting Sri Lanka after 30 or so years.
Maybe western media have seen enough regime change exercises to connect the dots here?
Your points 1-4
Opposition leaders visiting S’pore or US don’t make this a conspiracy by US and India. It is logical opposition leaders visiting S’pore because there was strong surveillance in SL. So if I am an opposition leader I too would be choosing a place where surveillance is not there. So Opposition leaders going to S’pore to hold meetings is understandable.
Have they met foreign ambassadors and agents from foreign countries? Perhaps they have. The foreign countries’ influence is limited to only supporting coalition forming. But at the end it is the people of the country who made their choice.
Point 5.
Most of the Chinese projects were disadvantageous for SL. The agreements were not good for SL. Have a look at Norochcholai, the warranty period is only 2 years. The agreements are that weak. If you buy a mobile you will get a warranty of 2 years. This is a 1350 m $ plant. Chinese lent us money at high rates and gave us a faulty plant. Now we have to pay them for repairing their design errors.
That is the truth. SL’s trade with EU and west were the most economical. And they declined during MR. I think we should capitalize on the new found good will with EU.
Point 6 – That is good. Did not MR do the same? Didn’t he make the promise that he will do it?
Point 7,8 – As far as I know India is the first country any leader of this country goes first when elected. So it is the custom. I saw mangala would be going to china later as well. In every small country in South Asia, except Pak the first state visit of its leaders is to India.
Point 9- Didn’t MR invite him?
Let’s get to the point. Indians can influence SL election but to a certain extent. That is mostly with tamil votes. But the SL people largely had decided whom to vote. Had India and US supported opposition that is only to the extent of forming the coalition.
US and India needed MR out because of china. We wanted MR out because of corruption, rule of law, declining economy and many others. So for a short time our different interests made us together. But let us continue our journey differently.
Let’s force RW to force US into a pro SL stance and lets see who has really used the other, whether it is US/India used SL people or SL people used US/India…
Let’s play their game.
Dude, a lot of people on Mahinda’s side go to Singapore and the US. A lot of people in general do.
Right! Western media doesn’t know what their governments are up to! Why don’t we get over the fact that the opposition was helped by West and India (it’s not the first time in this world) and try to keep an eye on the new government whether they are servicing the interests of other countries than ours? Will that hurt us at all?
Janith – yes that’s fair. Now we have an elected government and we must work with them to make Sri Lanka better.
However, we should be aware of meddling and make sure we the people get what we want not what is engineered by marketing and advertising to suit other countries’ objectives.
Why was it necessary for the US embassy to run social media training in Sri Lanka last January? http://srilanka.usembassy.gov/pr-2jan14.html. If it was just to help people out then why was it only run once?
Incidentally, the US embassy ran that in Ukraine too: http://ukraine.usembassy.gov/smgrant.html. That had a grant too. Looks like Egypt and Nepal too.
Social media training by the US could have contributed to a small percentage of those engaged in it – the bulk of it was coming anyway.
Similarly, the RAW guy may have had some effect on getting the GS of the ruling party to cross, but again the bulk of it is to do with relationships on the ground between the local actors cultivated over many years.
I guess that is why talk of India or America being responsible for the result as a whole is absurd. It would also prompt the question, did India get American help or the other way around!
Obviously no country is an island anymore, even the ones like us which are surrounded by water! And the bigger ones affect the smaller ones more than three other way around. But who would argue that SL has always influenced Indian elections through the TN vote?
I think it’d be inaccurate to dismiss the enlightenment of our populace (though there’s still a long way to go) to be able to make a conscious decision to shun authoritarianism. The fact that this ‘awakening’ is mostly in the cities where information flow is freer than in the rest of the country also suggests that we have work to do yet, to make universal franchise truly meaningful.
As someone close to the Sirisena campaign, very plainly, India gave the bulk of the money, the U.S. helping out, especially on securing some of the Social Media support, and money to various page admins. But CBK worked hard to get the defection of Sirisena, and he wouldn’t have come out if India didn’t pledge their full support. In the end of course you are right, it was the voters who decided, and really beating the Rajapaksa machine without external support was practically impossible. No businessman would commit money to the campaign due to fear, they did get bolder towards the end, like the media. So some external source had to give money and support, in this case, it’s India. The reasons are obvious. India didn’t like what was happening with China and Rajapaksa. Two submarines showed up and the Rajapaksa couldn’t give assurances to India.