Protest in Free Trade Zone, photo via Vikalpa
For a long time I thought the current Sri Lankan government was all-powerful, but not anymore. In past months, they’ve gotten a couple of black eyes and had to back down pretty good. It’s interesting. I think the Sri Lankan people still have the power.
Pensions Protests
To brutally sum, the government wanted to take more money from the private sector to support their bloated staff and gamble in the stock market. People in the Free Trade Zone were like WTF and protested. The cops tried the usual scene and killed a young man. Major scene.
In response, the government backed off the pension scheme and the Police Chief resigned/retired (was fired).
Galle Face Green
The government was trying to sell some land to a Chinese company (ie, the Chinese government). This land didn’t exist, they were going to reclaim it from the sea, but it seemed too cheap and word was that it would be sold outright. The Sunday Times blew this up, kinda giving the impression that they were selling the Galle Face Green, or that the Green would lose its seaside, but anyways, major scene. The government cancelled the project.
Cricket Administration
This is mostly self-inflicted, as in the political catchers appointed to run the cricket board keep punching themselves in the head, wondering why everything goes dark, and punching again. They messed up the Cricket World Cup financially, then acted all jealous about the IPL, trying to pull Sri Lankan players back. They didn’t listen and that was black eye number one.
Then they started their own local league, which was a total mess. No Indian players would come, there was no marketing done and the whole thing has been postponed. Black eye number two.
Then Kumar Sangakkara gave his famous speech and the Sports Minister responded by calling for an investigation (into the speech). Later it was reported that Sanga had permission and that no one was going to investigate. Black eye numero three, meaning that wing of government is officially out of eyes.
So…
So, this government is not the dictatorship people make it out to be. I don’t think it ever was. Sri Lanka has had two proper dictators from the UNP (one violent – Premadasa, the other more bureaucratic – JR) and one proper dynasty (the Bandaranaike’s). Yet we still emerged with some weird sorta democracy, albeit not a visible one. Visibly, all systems are corrupted and messed. Underneath it all, however, it seems that the people still have some power.
The Government is very powerful. Yes they have occasionally backtracked, but have they ever really changed course?
Remember the incident with Mervyn Silva who tied up a Samurdi activist? They were forced to sack him, but he was reinstated at the first opportunity (after the passing of the 18th amendment).
The IGP who “resigned” has now been appointed ambassador to Brazil, it looks like he has been promoted for his good work.
The pension scheme a revenue raising measure, it has been shelved for the moment but other taxes could be raised instead and it may well make a comeback.
The reclamation project is only on hold, it may well reappear. Also they are only considering it internally, if they were serious they would open it up for public consultation, but they never do that do they? Everything is decided and then pushed through, there is never proper debate or consultation.
Remember the most insidious thing about corruption is that it undermines the institutions that make a democracy. Nothing works the way it is supposed to because money and influence (fear of the powers that be is also influence).
As for the path to dictatorship, it is a matter of opinion but in my view we have been marching down that road ever since 1978. There were sea changes in political culture in 1994 and 2005, in both cases the speed of deterioration increased sharply afterwards.
Good points. What worries is me is that for every project that’s exposed, there must be a hundred that go through. And you’re right that the crappy course continues.
I hope Indi is right, but look at the number of ministers and officials who calmly continue as before after saying the most unacceptable things. That joker from Galle who makes public threats, Duminda Silva admitting to carrying clubs and poles, and the handling of the recent petrol fiasco by minister Premajayantha, initially denying everything without checking anything. I still cant get over the re-appointment of P B Jayasundera as the treasury secretary. There must be so many more examples like that. They’re all allowed to go on in the same positions, whatever they do.
I think Mahinda purposely surrounds himself with idiots, so that he can controlthem as he wishes. The tragedy is, it’s more the fault of the opposition than the dictator, that things are allowed to go on like this.
I think thuggery, incompetence, and corruption are here to stay. All signs are that these things will not be punished except in extreme cases, and even then they will try to compensate the punished person in other ways — the IGP’s appointment to Brazil is a good example.
What we need to watch is whether they continue to be successful in changing laws and the constitution. The 18th went through, yes, but the pension scheme emphatically did not; and we need to see whether the latter is brought up again in another form. Another thing that’s on the cards is this change in the conservation laws t accommodate the Commonwealth games project.
My prediction is that they will back down on things that the rural masses consider contentious and push through things that only the urban elite care about. Case in point, the conservation laws or wildlife act or whatever it is. The environment isn’t something that the rural masses really gives a damn about unless it directly affects their income; it’s mostly the urban elite that care if animals are protected or the butterflies have a home. Remember how they raised petrol prices but kept diesel down?
Any government will hesitate to go after its electoral base, at least openly. MR still needs popular support, for whatever reason. But like I have predicted in the other thread, it will be lack of popular support that finally brings MR down. Now that MR handpicks the Supreme Court judges and the election commissioner, there is no legal mechanism to remove MR from power. He can sue you for slander (aka Frederica Jansz) but good luck if its the reverse case. If there is a fundamental rights petition involving ownership, as in the North, but the land happens to intersect a HSZ, your case has no chance, as people in the East found out – guess which Rajapakse would interfere in that one. These guys don’t bend – they are quick to jump on the conspiracy bandwagon and find a scapegoat. It’ll take something on the scale of JVP II to really get their attention.