Mahinda and his bro Gaddafi, now uncomfortably wedged between Tunisia and Egypt
I’ve seen people asking when Egyptian style revolution will come to Sri Lanka. Um, unlikely, and if it does, then in 20 years. The problem with Mubarak in Egypt was quantity as much as quality. He’s been an autocrat for 30 years. The generation that started the revolt is literally younger than his rule. Furthermore, the countries seeing fruitful rebellion in the Middle East are A) republics rather than monarchies and B) backed by the US. These dictators can’t play the foreign threat card, because they are the foreign threat. The only condition that applies to Sri Lanka is that it’s a Republic.
This is not that a rebellion can’t happen in Sri Lanka, but it wouldn’t happen now. Mahinda isn’t actually looking like a dictator now, he just looks like he could become one. A lot of dictators start off well and only become labeled such when they stop delivering results and don’t leave. In the rebellions in Egypt and Yemen they didn’t even want to genetically leave after death, moving to install their sons. While Mahinda is setting up his son now, he’s actually only just begun his second term. Around the third term people might start getting antsy. Mubarak is on his fifth, and four of those times he’s been the only person on the ballot.
Mubarak seeing if his time is up. Israel says no. Via Wikipedia
Furthermore, what you’re seeing in the Middle East rebellions is that US backed dictators are the ones being overthrown. The US made deals to back these guys to protect Israel and their own Al Qaeda neurosis, essentially paying them off in arms and money and selling out millions of civilians in the process. Mubarak’s regime is especially cozy with the US and Israel, hardly a popular position at home. By contrast, the liberal opposition in Sri Lanka are the ones cozy with the US and Mahinda can predictably play the foreign/traitor card on them. Perhaps in time he could be hit for being so closed to China, but that empire, while being dicks, are not dicks about it like America.
So, I don’t see anybody walking like an Egyptian in Sri Lanka anytime soon.