Mahinda’s poll posters, pasted on the Kanatta cemetery walls
Sarath says 45% of people support Mahinda (in Lankadeepa). Mahinda is saying it’s 58% (in posters). I dunno if Sarath is right, but I’m damn sure Mahinda is wrong. The posters say the race at 58/42. That adds up to 100, which is nice, but it also leaves for zero undecided. Which is simply not true. There are a lot of undecided until election day, which is why we have elections. I think the numbers are really more like 45/45, with 10 swinging in the middle.
Regardless, nothing is a hundred percent. Mahinda is very well-known, well-mediated and entirely shameless. From what I hear, however, undecided are swinging to Fonseka. He still has that new politician smell. Sri Lankan Tamils are moving with the TNA and Estate Tamils will decide as soon as the CWC stops fracturing and tells them what year it is. I say this jokingly, but the Estate Tamils are still basically disenfranchised in the country that tried to kick them out (with Sri Lankan Tamil support). I’m pretty sure they don’t know what symbol to vote for and would vote for the Elephant, they are so cut off.
But I digress. It is interesting that polls are going mainstream this year. In the past it was all astrologers.
What I have heard is that a lot of people are breaking to Fonseka, including a lot of undecideds. Even 42% is a shitload more than the zero he was only months ago. Fonny seems to have a lot of momentum right now, but who knows what scandals (I hear sex) and attacks will come out, and Mahinda’s overpowering ground game could, er, overpower all.
Right now, however, I think the race is tied. Only thing that’s relatively sure is that many voters remain undecided or unknowable. If Mahinda is saying Sarath is at 42 and Fonny is saying Mahinda’s at 45, that’s pretty much within the margin of error. If you read between the lines of both campaigns, I think you’ll see a dead heat. So, for the life this country, please vote.