This Race Is Close


Photo by Amantha Perera, Perambara

I heard that there were posters around town citing polling data, saying that Mahinda would get well over 50%. I don’t know, but I think the race is much closer than that. Even in the mood around Colombo, a lot of people are breaking towards General Fonseka. Colombo is all sound and fury, but with the Tamil National Alliance supporting the man, he will get a significant march-to-the-polls Tamil vote. The CWC (Indian Tamil vote broker, basically) seems to be fracturing and the Muslims are already largely in his favor. Plus the Sinhalese is historically split, and there’s no more war wedge to pry it apart. So it’s close.

As far as I can tell, this race is within the margin of error. There are various analyses and polls floating around, but none of them show a landslide for anyone. This is surprising to some extent, Fonseka comes from no party, has no established vote base, and has really one month to campaign. This is in opposition to a guy who’s basically been in permanent campaign mode since he was Prime Minister, backed by a lot of state pomp and lucre.

What you have to remember, however, is that the electorate was really divided in the first place. The last election was about 50/50, and Mahinda’s campaign was way better, plus he was the sitting Prime Minister. Mahinda’s war victory, while bolstering support among the Sinhalese (and Muslims), also had the effect of getting hundreds of thousands of Jaffna voters back online. These are people that would’ve tossed the election to Ranil last time and are unlikely to vote for Mahinda now. Furthermore, General Sarath Fonseka – by virtue of being General Sarath Fonseka – somewhat blunts the war issue and, based on what meagre info I’ve seen – seems to split the Sinhala vote.

So basically Fonseka is in a position to get over fifty percent of minority votes (largely by association) and around 50% of Sinhala votes by status quo. Furthermore, the guy has nothing here, no safe refuge in the US, so somebody must have showed him some shot of winning for him to risk his whole life. I’ve seen bits of information here and there and the race is damn close. So I hope you vote on the 26th. I’m voting for Fonseka.

12 Comments

  1. Prob is there is a bunch of ppl not willing to go to a polling station, coz they think that Mahinda will win in the end, so it’s not worth the effort. SF needs to tap into that market.

  2. Try to resist the temptation to delete these posts on the 27th of January.

  4. there are many posts I probably should delete but haven’t. I have no idea how the race will turn out. I suspect a lot of people don’t even know the Swan symbol and may mess up their ballots.

    I’m just saying, based on available information, this race is close (now). Two weeks is a lifetime in this campaign so we’ll see

  6. Indi supports whoever the UNP supports. Kinda like the Sunday Leader. It’s his perogative really, and humans and hypocrisy – what’s new?

  7. It’s going to be a close race. But, I guess the Tamil votes will decide in the end, like last time.

  8. I do support the UNP, have worked for them and generally vote for them. I’m not sure why this is weird, I haven’t hidden my personal preference or anything.

    I’ve chosen to vote for Sarath Fonseka after really thinking about it and I have been and will continue to be critical about him. Reading those posts above I don’t see anything especially contradictory. I cringe that I called SF and Gota unpatriotic, but it was in the context of two particular quotes.

    I hope you’ll understand that my writing is not prediction or political position but rather me thinking aloud. I change based on a changing environment, but I think my principles are relatively stable. One of those principles is pragmatism, and the art of the possible. I think Sarath can win and I think he can discipline the government. I don’t agree with the way much of the war was conducted and I don’t think he’s an especially great human being, but I think it’s the best vote I can make right now.

  9. :-) thats what happens when politics become religion

  10. But that’s much better than when religion becomes religion.

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