From the Sokwanele photostream, Mugabe’s attempt to quell inflation by dropping three zeroes
Zimbabwe is not a death factory like Iraq or a giant gulag like North Korea, but it is perhaps the worst governed country in the world. They have hyperinflation of over 1000%, life expectancy of 37/34 for men and women, the highest AIDS rate in the world and a shrinking economy (-4.7 GDP). Worst of all, this misery is caused and perpetuated by the incompetent, corrupt and tyrannical government of Robert Mugabe. It is one thing to slow the growth of a country, but to actually take a country backwards is a terrible thing to watch. 80% of Zimbabweans live in poverty and the economy has contracted 40% since 2000. In the midst of all this, Robert Mugabe may be rewarded for his good works by being made President for Life. What he will be after that is a footnote on how to run the worst government ever.
The last official figures issued in October put inflation at 1,070%. But the cost of living shot up by almost 50% last month, according to the Consumer Council of Zimbabwe. An urban family of six now requires Z$209,000 (£442) to meet its basic food, housing, transport and clothing needs for a month, way above the average wage of Z$50,000. So bad is the economic crisis that while people around the world are stocking up on treats for the festive season, Zimbabweans are staring at empty shelves (Sunday Times)
The failure of Zimbabwe is by most accounts willful. Mugabe’s Land Reform was the main culprit, pride bought at a terrible price. The government made a chaotic seizure of land from white land-owners which resulted in disaster. White did own a majority of arable land in Zimbabwe and slow measure were in order to redistribute it more fairly. The Mugabe government, however, rashly seized the land at once, gave it to cronies with no expertise in working the land and turned Zimbabwe from Africa’s breadbasket to a country where 2/3 of the people are facing their worst famine in history.
The government has behaved like a spoiled child, seizing toys and printing money while investors lose confidence, but this self-perpetuating cycle has spiraled the country deep into despondency. As Jesse Jackson said in June 2006, “Land reform has long been a noble goal to achieve but it has to be done in a way that minimizes trauma. The process has to attract investors rather than scare them away. What is required in Zimbabwe is democratic rule, democracy is lacking in the country and [that] is the major cause of this economic melt down.”
Mugabe simultaneously burned the nation’s own breadbasket and withdrew from the world, meaning that the country could no longer feed itself. Regardless, he refused to import maize and now cannot afford anything. The Zimbabwean government also weakened investor confidence by stopping payment on loans (IMF, etc), spending billions on war in Congo, imposing unrealistic price controls (driving goods underground) and generally being despotic bastards. Internally they have rigged elections, and razing the homes of the urban poor who may oppose them. Zimbabwe has gone from a great nation to one of the poorest places on earth through the mismanagement of one government. It is so sad to see.
More to the point, they have responded to failures in policy not with change or reform, but by printing money. This results in a and that is what high inflation fundamentally is. It’s a sign that policy may not be working, a sign ignored at a nation’s peril.
Just watch, you can see it happen here old boy. Give these guys 20 years, they may take us there. If we are a bit luckier than the hapless Zimbabweans, we may end up like Kenya.
ps price of bread went over Z$ 100,000 some time back so the new prices should be Z$100+
You wish Jack. Sri Lanka’s HDI figures are the highest in South Asia and virtually identical to those of a typical western country. The only reason our economy is fucked is because of the war. But even then we’ve got significant annual GDP growth and less than 1/4 of the population in poverty.
Sri Lanka’s HDI is the highest in Asia but it’s by no means virtually identical to western countries. We’re ranked as medium, close to Turkey, Dominican Republic, Iran, etc. That
Right, well I’d rather be in Turkey than in Zimbabwe, and I think that’s the point. Jack’s original comment makes it pretty clear that he doesn’t really comprehend the true situ in Zimbabwe.
The HDI achievements were made in the 1950’s and 1960’s , not a great deal of progress has been made since. Jmalicious correctly states that the war is the biggest problem, but it is not merely the expenditure and loss of life that is the issue. The knock on effects of the war are far greater than this:
1. It promotes increasing lawlessness. There are now large chunks of the country where the government writ does not run. This creates a ready market for stolen items – Jeeps/pickups being the most obvious. This (together with a few factors below) results in the increase in carjackings and other crimes.
2. There is a steadyy leakage of men and weapons from the warfront into the criminal underworld. At the last count, the number of deserters was estimated at 70,000 most of whom find profitable employment in the underworld. 10,000 is the going rate for murder now, professionally executed drive-by style.
3. These deserters are generally farmed out by the underworld as bodygaurds for politicians. The underworld also provides much of the manpower as well as a good chunk of the financing for political campaigns. Elected politicians are thus in hock to the financiers, not the voters and another reason why we experience this crime wave. Alleged financiers include Kathubdeen (of the 3.57bn VAT scam fame) to certain well known bookies. Certain ministers whose sons are cuaght up in nightclub brawls are alleged to have links to drug barons like Kudu Noor.
4. The above, allied with persistent and ever increasing levels of corruption – most particularly in the police and the judiciary means that the law no longer works for the powerful and the influential.
Add this lot to fiscal mismanagement and general levels of incompetence resulting in various rules that hinder or discourage normal economic life and what do you end up with?
Sri Lanka vs Upper-Middle Income Countries vs South Asia
Source: devdata.worldbank.org
Life expectancy: Sri Lanka 74.4; Upper-Middle-Income 69.2; South Asia 63.4
Infant mortality rate: SL 12.0; UMI 23.2; SA 66.4
Fertility rate: SL 1.9; UMI 1.9; SA 3.1
Attended births: SL 96.0; UMI 94.7; SA 37.0
HIV prevalence: SL 0.1; UMI 2.2; SA 0.7
Immunisation: SL 99.0; UMI 91.2; SA 60.6
Secondary school enrollment: SL 82.5; UMI 85.3; SA 49.3
Urban sanitation: SL 98.0; UNI 90.8; SA 62.7
Literacy: SL 90.7; UMI 93.6; SA 59.5
So end timers really need to shut up. There’s no reason to get your little panties in a twist and have a hissy fit.
I couldn’t replicate the tats on that site, but I found this on this interesting HDI interactive stats site.
It shows that Sri Lanka is well above South Asia but still below Latin America and significantly below OECD countries (basically Western ones). Sub Saharan Africa is well well below and I don’t think SL is in any danger of reaching that level. We do, however, need a lot of work.
Zimbabwe, however, got knocked off a similar development path remarkable fast.
I’m sure no one could disagree with you on these points, although our feudal heritage and traditional resistance to modernisation are as responsible for the state of things as is the war.
The key issue is that Ranil’s peace process has not helped alleviate most of these problems. Carjacking by LTTE related gangs increased several fold after 2001, and the perpetrators acted with impunity (and virtual immunity) until MR came into power. The systematic contraction of the military and tacitly encouraged desertion under Ranil’s administration without any effort to rehabilitate the soldiers should also be blamed.
One of the main reasons that our leaders have to tolerate utter corruption and thuggery by people like SB and Mervyn is because their weak governments cannot afford to lose them.
No one wants a protracted war that serves no purpose. Only the LTTE could benefit from that. The only option is to go for a determined military solution. There’s no way the war and its side/after effects could be prevented by negotiating with the LTTE.
Thanks for the post Indi. It’s especially nice to see the flickr images being used!
If you’re interested in issues on Zimbabwe’s economy, then you may be interested in the article we’ve posted today focussing on corruption within parastatals titled “ZISCO: The cost of Zimbabwe’s kleptocracy“. Many of the highest ranking government officials (named in our piece) are implicated in fraud and corruption in ZISCO, one of the largest state owned enterprises in Zimbabwe. It’s the biggest scandal of its kind since Zimbabwe became independent in 1980, and goes some way towards explaining why the country is on its knees economically. Greed and reckless disregard for the majority while a grubby corrupt few grab what they can as quickly as possible. Disgusting.
The solution to teh corruption is to remove the money from the political system.
1. Strict spending limits on political campaigns. Limits shoudl be set fairly low (say Rs.5m per candidate)
2. Transparency in fundraising. The source of funds needs to be published, no anonymous donors.
Ideally, we shoudl move to government financing for all political parties. NO PRIVATE FUNDRAISING allowed.
It is a cost to teh tax payer but it is probably far far less than the real cost of allowing criminals to finance politicians.
At least the politician has no obligations owing to teh criminals.
A chaneg in the constitution, reverting to Westminster style parluiament without the overarching powers of the presidency would also help.
Naturally, all of this is quite impossible given the vested interests involved , hency my very gloomy outlook fo rthe country. I would be the happiest (especially sinec i am too old to migrate) if my dire predictions do not come true, but the flaws are deep rooted and structural in nature. It will take a miracle to save the situation now.