indi.ca

44 Comments

1. 

   Mate I agree completely, except that your claim that ‘we have to win’ is slightly ambiguous. By your ‘victory’ do you mean defeat the LTTE, suppress the evil minority so that they can never raise their terrorist heads again, or do you mean the victory of achieving peace?

   Like Aadhavan has been at pains to point out, the LTTE is only a symptom of the problem. Defeating it will be like fighting cancer with a painkiller. You think it’s gone but it’s still eating you up from the inside and then suddenly you die.

   We need an inclusive society, not to win the war, but to end it. The realpolitik is not universal brotherhood, but being able to live with my Tamil neighbour even though I don’t like dosai and vel carts, because I like my innards littered on the street even less.

2. 

   aththa
   is that it? your realpolitck strategy ?
   intelligence and giving hope to tamils? who said anything against both of that. (as long as tamils are considered separately from ltte )
   but is that enough to finsh ltte off any more than ‘global pr’ ?
   ( or may be you do not want to defeat ltte ? why fudge)

   ltte as you said have suicide bombers, any number of mines and bombs , capability to deploy them anywhere ( without much help from ordinary tamils, are you saying they receive help for that kind of thing ? ), bunkers, artillery guns, navy, defense lines, . the whole works.
   what do you do with all that ?

   hope that intelligence will finish all that off?
   a suicide bomber or two , and mine attack or two, assassination or two , may be prevented , and yes we may get data about their gun positions ( bt that is not hard already, only they are either mobile or well entrenched we cannot for the most part hit them easily ) and we may even kill one or two of their leaders as in 2001.
   but will they be gone completely ?
   no. if you want be practical, be practical.

   how are you going to neutralize sampoor and keep the supply line open? by intelligence alone? (or by bombing ? and may be a ground operation?)
   how do you reduce ltte’s capability and build up south of jaffna? intelligence and good will of tamils? (or by actual fighting and artillery?)
   how do you free sri lankans held in bondage in wanni by ltte ? by intelligence and good will of the tamils who cannot even vote ?
   if you want to be realistic be realistic.

   ppl do not say ‘this is not Sri Lanka, and we can bomb the shit out of it without warning or evacuating these people’.
   nor does bombing makes them ‘feel better’.
   but what happens when ltte guns are aimed at other civilians(in trinco) and ppl are used as human shields? hold fire and let ltte kill as many as they want, lose the supply lines , lose the water(or whatever), let ltte ethnically cleanse whole towns and build new positions ? and hope we get good pr and good will of the ppl held as human shields? hope that may be one or two will turn informant bc they want to ally with a government that cannot protect its own?

   what happens when waves of child cadres ( which government failed in its duty to protect) hit a camp ? abandon it ? hope that all the good will make them surrender en masse under eye of their commanders ? or defeat them in battle?

   get real.if you want to talk realpolitik.

   or are you implying we talk to ltte and give them power to rule even more ppl ?

   be clear how you deal with the very real ltte , or are you limiting yourself to intelligence , global pr, and good will. and hopping for the best.
   ——

   nobody but really hardcore warmongers are advocating an unwinable war to exterminate ltte, but nor should we accept peace at a huge cost by appeasement.

   a morally defensible but realistic policy will aim to defeat and contain the ltte without initiating and avoiding as far as possible, a full scale war.
   to do that government should aim at the following
   1. preventing ltte gaining any more power, militarily, politically, diplomatically, or financially.
   2. avoidance of military action involving the regular military as long as above objective is achieved.
   3. doing everything possible to pro actively reduce ltte’s power without jeopardizing the above two objectives

   that means in practice ,
   when they attack, they should be pushed back to where they started from (and we can and have done that).
   if they do not to feel accountable to agreements ( like cfa ) we should make them accountable by force.
   not increasing their power to oppress ppl by devolving power to them or legitimizing their flimsy claims to represent tamils .
   if they are willing to talk, talk about maintaining the ceasefire but give them nothing substantial by way of power sharing .
   make clear that very real tamil grievances can only be addressed through by democratically elected tamils representatives, not terrorists.
   of course do everything practicable to win tamil goodwill ( without appeasing ltte) .
   increase intelligence capability.
   andyes global pr too should have its minor place.
   and lot more similar things
   
   in other words make clear that ltte wont get anything militarily or by negotiations as long as it remain what it is .
   meanwhile bc we are too weak to defeat them now , let them keep what they have ( without legitimizing it ) and rot in a stalemated dead end, till they become progressively weaker as they are already showing signs of doing.

   whether you like it or not any government will be forced to follow something like the above.

3. 

   Military action without intelligence is pointless. Every war today is about intelligence first. You can’t bomb or shell anything without intelligence as to what you’re doing and strategy to guide you to victory. Everything else is just flailing around in the dark.

   Snut is a classic example of idealistic fakepolitic – ‘politics based on theoretical or ethical objectives’. It’s useful that he posted a comment. Note that he talks about grand theoretical objectives like ‘democratically elected Tamil representatives’, ‘make them accountable by force’, ‘push them back to where they start from’, ‘give nothing substantial in terms of power sharing’, etc. All commendable ethical objectives, but completely theoretical. It doesn’t acknowledge the facts on the ground and it doesn’t lead to victory.

   There’s no acknowledgement of practical or material factors, just a sanctimonious statement of what a perfect world would be like. That’s the type of war our governments have been fighting, and it doesn’t lead to victory. Just all good intentions and no way to deliver. Fakepolitic.

4. 

   did i exclude intelligence ,did i exclude pr, did i exclude tamil goodwill.? no ( see th previous comment. it is there in back and white )
   to say that i did, in order to have some kind of argument against me is one more example of pathetic behavior.

   but what i said was that intelligence , good will, and global pr, alone will not defeat ltte. in fact they play only minor parts.
   it is not i but indi and aththa who completely exclude any military action in this post or indi’ previous post. and then they claim to be realistic and pretend to talk of realpolitick.. :-)

   what i described is more or less what is happening now. it is more a observable description of the real strategy than a theory like theirs’

   as for my ‘completely theoretical’ statements . lets examine them

   make them accountable by force. sl military is making ltte accountable by force in mavil aru. ( are denying that? )
   push them back to where they start from’ that is what happened in muttur and will happen in jaffana ( are you denying that ? )
   give nothing substantial in terms of power sharing observe previous and next peace talks and see. ( care to point out any real power sharing deal (that can remotely be acceptable to sl polity) we made with tigers. all devolution packages ( indo lanka , 2000 constitution,)were not with tigers, they were treated as a another political party only , if they want power they had to contest elections under them.

   as for –democratically elected tamil representatives that may be theoretical if ltte is not defeated , but these two also supposedly advocate defeat of ltte . then wouldn’t there be democratic representatives. if i am theoretical here these two also are.

   or are they not advocating defeat of the ltte? that is why i say they fudge when it comes to realistic methods to deal with ltte. they do not say how to deal with ltte itself.

   if you advocate defeat of ltte. please explain how do you defeat ltte without military action? ( same old answer about pr, good will and intelligence? )
   or do you now accept actual military action after deriding those who advocated that in your original posts ?
   are you advocating bombing now? are you admitting the possibility of collateral damage ? do you think military is capable after after insulting them earlier ?

   so much for the realism of these…

   ( as for name calling as i said in moju get someone more orginal and creative to do that :-) )

5. 

   Great post by Aththa. It gets to the nub of the problem, for me.

   Basically, the way I see it, the GoSL needs to provide Tamils with an alternative to supporting the LTTE. If the support for the LTTE’s cause dies, then the LTTE will die. That’s my belief, anyway. That’s what we have to attack. The cause, the idea, the ideology. Not whoever is promoting it.

   The problem is that the GoSL (like most past governments of this country) does not see things with a long-term view. Short-term policies that harass Tamils and make life worse for them only serve to strengthen the fight for Tamil autonomy. How can we expect to live in a single nation, in peace in harmony, when one section of the populace is treated so differently?

   The only way this problem will be overcome is if the GoSL takes a long-term view to make life better for Tamils, and give them a reason to side with the GoSL. The GoSL needs to metaphorically put its arm around every Tamil in the country (even the ones that support the LTTE) and say to them, “You are Sri Lankan. You are one of us. We all want one thing, and that is a successful and prosperous Sri Lanka. We will look after everyone’s interests equally, and if anyone comes that wants to order you around or trample your rights or your freedom, we will stop them and look after you, no matter what happens. You will have the same opportunities as everyone else. You are no different from a Sinhala, or a Muslim, or a Burgher. You are special. You are Sri Lankan.”

   Once Tamils are made to feel that the GoSL cares about them and wants to look after them, and their interests, they will come forward and help to defeat the LTTE. Because most of them, deep-down, don’t want to live under authoritarian dictatorial butchers that steal their children away from them.

   They’d rather just mind their own business and live under a government that allows them to be free, to express themselves freely, and protects them from harm. Like all of us.

6. 

   To Snut : you say “if you advocate defeat of ltte. please explain how do you defeat ltte without military action?”
   The answer to your question is what the post is all about. Read it.

   Or ask yourself this question . . .who are the LTTE? Who are they made up of? Who will they be made up of in the future (if they exist, that is)? The only way to defeat the LTTE is to win over the Tamils of the North and the East. Because the LTTE thrives on their sorrows.
   By sending out 40,000 troops to the North and the East is not going to defeat the LTTE. All they need to do is to make sure that the 40,000 troops are trapped in their region (which is what they are doing right now by bombing the Palaaly airbase), the geography of which they know by heart. Boundaries don’t matter. Government controlled areas and LTTE controlled areas don’t exist. We were here in the 90s and that’s where we are again and if you don’t use your intelligence to win this war, we’ll be here in 10 years time again.

   In conclusion, if the Tamils of the North and East aren’t won over, we will always have the LTTE. There will always be a Prabakaran. Period.

   Get to grips with reality. Good Bless Sri Lanka.

   P.S: Good post Atha and Indi

7. 

   Goot points Yaaro and JJ. I actually don’t exclude military action at all, and I don’t think that’s in the post. I just think there needs to be intelligence and strategy behind the military action. Otherwise we’re just reacting and the LTTE controls the game.

8. 

   ppl can read what they wrote about military action in their own posts and judge whether they exclude military action or worse.

   now for ‘real idealists’
   jjs says :
   f the support for the LTTE’s cause dies, then the LTTE will die.
   Once Tamils are made to feel that the GoSL cares about them and wants to look after them, and their interests, they will come forward and help to defeat the LTTE.
   yaroo (how are you btw? ) says :
   The answer to your question(how do you defeat ltte without military action) is what the post is all about. Read it.
   In conclusion, if the Tamils of the North and East aren’t won over, we will always have the LTTE. There will always be a Prabakaran. Period.

   what could be more idealistic. if only world was like that!
   but remember at the beginning there were bigger militant groups with better support .bt ltte emerged at the top. and even now does anybody really support the ltte ? why is it that most refugees flees to government territory. ? ltte isn’t going to fall down just bc ppl under it do not like it . they don’t like it already.
   other ‘authoritarian dictatorial butchers ‘( when they are competent and big p..y is competant ) did not fall like that they had to be defeated or tolerated . ltte is capable of enforcing its will against the will even when the pl do not like that will (ex. last election )

   of course government should try to win over tamils ( as i agreed in my comment).but ltte will not end just bc of that.
   in the end ltte have to be defeated, by military action if needs be.
   that is the reality.

   jj says,
   That’s what we have to attack. The cause, the idea, the ideology. Not whoever is promoting it.
   rather both ltte and those who legitimatize ltte’s claim to the idea of of tamil liberation ( bc it is not the representative of tamils) . (of course not in the same way )

9. 

   It’s clear that neither community wants the war given the ideal situation, so getting rid of the war entails creating as far as possible the ideal situation. I strongly beleive that allowing an ISGA type arrangement will be a step towards creating a situation that is close to ideal.
   A) the economy in the NE will thrive, people will have jobs and people in the NE and the diaspora will realize that it is possible to live with dignity while being partners with the Sinhala people.
   B) the LTTE will be under pressure to perform and will be keen to demonstrate that they are capable of running civilian matters effectively and successfully while being partners with the internatinal community who will probably come forward to aid a lot of the development and reconstruction work
   C) if the above two are accomplished, you have a situation where a return to war will be detested by the people of the NE and thus less likely to be the course of action adopted by the LTTE.

10. 

    you have a situation where a return to war will be detested by the people of the NE and thus less likely to be the course of action adopted by the LTTE.

    so return to war is not detested by the ppl of of ne now? according to you ?

11. 

    Snut: “why is it that most refugees flees to government territory ?” The answer to that is simple. They don’t! and they won’t. I am not sure where you picked up this point from. Having relatives in the North and having been there myself during some of the military operations in the 90s, I can assure you that they would rather flee to “LTTE controlled” areas than to “Government controlled” areas. If you believe otherwise, then you are missing a very basic point.

    “and even now does anybody really support the ltte ?”

    They wouldn’t be there if not for the support Snut. I accept that there is a sizeable proportion that don’t but unfortunately the majority still do. BY THAT I MEAN, THE MAJORITY OF TAMILS LIVING IN THE NORTH AND THE EAST. I am not at any point referring to Tamils living elsewhere in the country or perhaps the world. As for me, I do not support the LTTE and I am not for any of their bullshit about homeland and a need for one, needless to say their approach to one. But that’s merely my opinion . . . someone who does NOT live in the North or East.

    “ltte isn’t going to fall down just bc ppl under it do not like it . they don’t like it already.”

    Unlike the army, the cadres in the LTTE, DO NOT GET PAID. They are not “working” for any government ( I am not saying that the army is fighting for the country, purely because of the money they get paid but we have to accept that most of them come from very basic homes and the need for money plays a major role in the reason behind taking up a job in the army) . The cadres on the other hand are purely in the LTTE because they TRULY believe in the “cause” or have been made to. The fact that they believe in the “cause” is what really matters at the end of the day. And for that, we need what JJ said, “attack the cause, the idea, the ideology. Not whoever is promoting it”. We need to give them a sound alternative. A genuine alternative.

    We had an opportunity to do that during the ceasefire in the last 3 years or so. It gave the government an opportunity to reach out to the Tamils in the North and East.

    I don’t know how I missed JJ’s post before. Way to go JJ!

12. 

    I have to say though, that IF given a chance to vote in the last presidential elections, the people of the North and East would definitely have voted for Ranil. No second thoughts about that. They were re-born with a Normal life during the ceasefire. A life in which they scarcely saw guns and shells. A life in which they didn’t have to run into their own bunker every two hours. A life in which they got to travel to different parts of their country with little hassle from anything in the form of “checkpoints”. A life which offered them peace. Any human, given a choice to choose between this and war would have no difficulty in making the correct choice. But they weren’t given the choice! Life sucks :(

13. 

    The polls done by both parties showed 80% of the people in the North would have voted for RW.

    It was in the LTTE’s interest to have this bunch of clowns and the head clown MR come to power, so they stopped the people from voting.

    More than any government in the past, the MR regime is there because of the LTTE (and of course a significant portion of the Sinhala electorate; but not an overwhelmbing majority of the type that CBK had in 1994). MR is delivering the goods now.

    Please note that I am not accusing the MR entity (can’t call it a party, because it’s organized around a moustache and the chinthanaya of the moustache; it has various manifestations mostly in the form of siblings) of cutting a deal with the LTTE. It’s just that they are behaving as expected and serving the separation objectives of the LTTE.

14. 

    yaaro:
    can assure you that they would rather flee to “LTTE controlled” areas than to “Government controlled” areas. If you believe otherwise, then you are missing a very basic point.
    that is certainly not the case now. what happened in muttur with regard to tamil refugees is proof of that.
    and you cannot escape the fact that more refugees in fact live in government areas. ( btw it is government who rightly maintains them in both areas)

    I accept that there is a sizeable proportion that don’t but unfortunately the majority still do. BY THAT I MEAN, THE MAJORITY OF TAMILS LIVING IN THE NORTH AND THE EAST
    i don’t think so and i don’t think you can make any such statement given what you say about ppl outside ne, if they support ltte they do it in the manner of ppl voting 99% to reelect old soviet leaders.

    The fact that they believe in the “cause” is what really matters at the end of the day. And for that, we need what JJ said, “attack the cause, the idea, the ideology. Not whoever is promoting it”. We need to give them a sound alternative.
    i agree and agreed above and in my post about the alternative and good will. but that alternative should not be given to the ltte but to the tamils.
    agree about the fighting the idea too. but we need to fight those who promote the ideology too. as long as they remain strong they will find ways to propagate their cause to various insecure ppl ( and there are lots of them in any society)
    as i said, it’s a pity that it isn’t possible to defeat ltte by merely an idealogical war ( may be that is possible in a cold war like time scale, but are you gong to let sri lankans suffer all that time?)

    remember that those who served other butchers needed to be pushed (hard) to abandon their causes. an long as there isn’t that push they will always serve th butchers even when the cause is discredited .

15. 

    I agree completely with what Athha says, this is what people should be demonstrating for! Not just “peace” or “stop shooting” but for the mechanisms by which the objective of a just and equitable peace can be met. I for one support devolution, a demerger of the NE province (based on the different ethnic makeup of the two areas), an independent (preferably international) investigation into 1983 (and other GOSL/LTTE atrocities), a SA style peace and reconciliation committee, acountability, accountability and more accountability from the GOSL. Protesting against the LTTE is pointless because we have no leverage over them, they are a terrorist organization and don’t care what anybody thinks.

    I do however disagree with Aadhavan, the LTTE have done nothing to deserve an ISGA style solution. They have constantly broken trust and are eternally wiping out Tamils who don’t share their ideals. Who will the LTTE be under pressure from? The internationally monitored ceasefire hasn’t stopped the LTTE from doing whatever they want.

    At the end of the day a negotiated settlement with the LTTE as it is today is an impossibility, Prabhakaran will never agree to anything except his own country. What needs to be done is the legitimate Tamil greivances and indeed all Sri lankan grievances have to be addressed and the development of the country through devolution (as opposed to only colombo developing now). This would empower normal citizens amd conceivably should allow whatever popular support the LTTE enjoys to be taken away from them allowing the top leadership to be eliminated. This could allow the LTTE to enter the democratic mainstream in a similar mode to the way the JVP has re-entered politics asuming a more moderate leadership took power.

16. 

    I don’t personally think that this war can be won militarily. GoSL’s armed forces (like all other public services) have been run down for many years by promotions, transfers and appointments made by political influence, rather than by merit. I have personally heard stories of officers that are bribed by the LTTE, arms and/or information that have been sold to the LTTE, good officers being transferred out of the line because they refused to kneel to a politician’s wishes, and other totally ridiculous examples of corruption, politcal interference, incompetence and/or desertion of responsibility in the line of duty.

    GoSL cannot expect to defeat the LTTE like this. The LTTE is one of the best-organised fighting forces in the world, their soldiers are highly committed, and their morale is higher (due to the fact that a lot of GoSL soldiers have a lack of faith in their leaders).

    Add to this their trump card that they are willing to die for the cause and they become virtually impossible to beat. I remember hearing a story where (in a previous war) LTTE cadres used to crawl very close to GoSL front lines in order to recce targets for their artillery to hit. If a shell missed, the cadre would radio back the exact distance and direction it missed by, and the next shot would hit for sure. These cadres would invariably be caught and killed, but the fact remains, this is an edge that the GoSL forces do not have. There are a multitude of stories that I’ve heard in which the LTTE has used their suicide-willing cadres to their advantage in the battlefield. Can the GoSL defeat these kind of tactics? Can anyone? In my view, I don’t think so.

    Pragmatically, I can’t see GoSL armed forces defeating the LTTE unless they are drastically reformed, and the leadership is placed in the hands of competent and trustworthy leaders, who are protected against political interference. Even then, I have little confidence in a military victory. Fighting guerrilla rebels is not easy. We’ll basically end up having another Vietnam – they’ll be farmers by day but cadres by night. Tough to win a battle like that.

    That said, I have the utmost respect for all the young soldiers who are giving their lives in this conflict. It is an utter tragedy that some of Sri Lanka’s finest sons and daughters (on both sides) are being killed over this issue. Meeting these fine young people at checkpoints always makes me sad. I always wonder if they will be dead soon because of this issue.

    I strongly believe the problem that needs to be addressed is the cause. GoSL (and the people of this country) need to ask: why do Tamils want greater autonomy?

    If and when the GoSL ever does defeat the LTTE, what then? Does anyone seriously think the matter will be over? What’s to stop Karuna from turning round and fighting the GoSL? What’s to stop other factions fighting for Tamil autonomy? Even if the LTTE is defeated, the cause will still be alive. It is the cause that needs to be addressed, that is the greater issue at hand.

    The reason we have this problem is that Tamils in the North and East want a better life, and the GoSL has not done anything to improve their lot for the last 20 years. So they support the LTTE, because they hope for something better. They don’t necessarily want to support the LTTE, but the GoSL doesn’t offer them any kind of hope, so they cling to an idea of a better future.

    This is my view. I am a pacifist, and I hate all this violence and killing. I don’t like war, and I don’t agree with those that think that a military offensive is the only way to solve this problem. Maybe a military offensive will destroy the LTTE, but that’s not the problem, in my view.

    The problem is the grievances of Tamils and their claim for greater autonomy. It is that issue that should be addressed, as that is the bigger picture. LTTE or not, that cause is at the root of the problem that Sri Lanka faces. And it is that problem that needs to be solved.

17. 

    Indi you still haven’t clarified my question as to whether you mean ‘win the war’ as a military victory? If so why this sudden backtrack and advocacy of a military solution – I maybe mistaken, but that’s what it sounds like.

    Sittingnut – take a stand! Don’t – just be cause you have the time and inclination – juxtapose arguments and flog the dead horse of semantics.

18. 

    child,
    both sides have broken each other’s trust and the point of having an ISGA is not to reward the LTTE. I feel it would channel the LTTE’s energies in the right direction while ensuring that the lot of the people in the NE improves.

    The CFA cannot even be compared to an ISGA type agreement. Under the CFA there was no ‘peace dividend’ that substantially improved the living conditions of people in the NE. Both SIRHN and NERF malfunctioned(I don’t want to get into a debate as to whose fault it was) Thus, the LTTE weren’t expected to do anything other than halt the fighting temporarily while rearming themselves. If the LTTE must be changed, the conditions necessarily precedent to that change must be established. Pressure from their own community to engage in effective partnership with the international community and the GOSL might, in my view, lay down the conditions for that change.
    Of course, to allow the ISGA in the first place, the GOSL must change first.

19. 

    Thanks for clarifying that, so I’m assuming you were not talking about implementing the ISGA verbatim as proposed by the LTTE?

20. 

    http://www.focuslanka.org/?p=48 educate yourselves… please… written by an academic…

21. 

    I used the phrase ISGA type agreement because the draft model proposed by the LTTE can be debated upon, amended and compromised on. Just like the process that led to the PTOMS agreement that the government (judicial branch) scuttled, you will have a draft proposal and subsequent negotiations. However, to achieve its desired objectives it will have to take into account the reality that the LTTE controls 60-70% of the territory in the NE and also give the LTTE a chance to change. They must be insiders and participants and not mere spectators.

22. 

    oh ya, sitting “no” nuts… those that displaced to kantalai were muslims and sinhala… the tamils (majority of them at least) went to eachchilampattu & vaharai…

    though they have now journeyed into batti govt controlled areas because the GoSL has blockaded the LTTE areas and is attempting to starve the civilians out… so they come outta LTTE controlled areas…

    food and water as a weapon…? no, not the sri lankan govt…

    grow up guys…

23. 

    Aththa, it’s been a long time. And I feel the hairs stand up on the back of my neck. Good points.

    A few responses to the responses.

    Snut, sadly the fish cannot swim except in water. Yaaro’s right on that point. If the fish tried, it would be dead by now. Here are a few more similar fish — they all swim in water: Hizbollah, Islamic Jihad, the IRA.

    Yaaro’s wrong about soldiers joining up for the pay. The GoSL finds it convenient to say this, and we find it convenient to accept it. No one likes to be told that our 18-year-olds like to kill people for a living. I gave a lengthier argument (with examples) somewhere on this site or Moju.

    Aadhavan’s right about an ISGA type agreement having to be given out. It doesn’t matter whether the LTTE deserves it or not — it’s about whether we (Sri Lanka) deserves it. An interim administration has to be established as a prelude to a more lasting solution. The LTTE has to be given the rope. Whether they hang themselves or pull themselves is upto them. Either way, SL wins.

    For those who say that a military solution cannot be the answer: do you know what a military solution entails? There are many flexible and interchangable modules in policy extension. The military is one component. There is no reason why a military solution cannot be used in parallel with other solutions. It doesn’t have to be one or the other.

    Lastly, nothing is achieved without compromise. Those who advocate only a diplomatic solution should also remember this.

24. 

    Wasn’t acceptance of the ISGA a precondition the LTTE laid down to initiate talks? or am I mistaken?

25. 

    Hate to be a trumpet blower for neo liberal institutionalism, the sworn enemy of Realpolitik ( Which I am a big fan of) or praphase that bloody Kofi, but I think only talks can resolve this mess.

    The Watergate has shown that LTTE can fight the SL army to a standstill while counter attacking from another front. Thier intelligence and logistics is good enough to transport Claymore mines to the heart of Colombo. From what I gather the resolve of the Tamil people are hardening against GOSL even in the East as orphanages and school are being bombs by the Airforce. Karuna will find that his support waning as Tamils in the east begin to think themselves as Tamils first and Eastern Tamils second.

    I see some interesting parallels here with the whole Palestinian- Israeli conflict. When there are two distinct ethnic groups with historical ties to the same peace of land, absolutely passionate and are convinced that they are absolutely right in their cause. The Sinhalese uneasy about having 150 Million Tamils across the Palk straight looking down on Sri Lanka. Due to historical precedent, feel that the concept of Greater Tamil Nadu including the North East is a posibility a la Cholas. Jews in Israel are surrounded by about the same number of hostile arabs, some of whome live in states that have proclaimed the desire to “push the Jews to the sea” many times. Also the Sinhalese with the language , culture and religion and the Israelis well with the same are very different from the surrounding people leading rightly or wrongly feel to a feeling of paranoa and alianation. The tamil inhabitants of the North East similar to the Palastinian of West Bank and Gaza feel they have a historical claim to the land and were disenfranchised due yo after effects of British Colonialism. They both face militarily superior conventional government armies with guerrilla tactics and face increasing radicalisation. Previous governments in both GOSL and Israel looked at talks for a solution but were not successful. Now the pendulum has swung back towards war for a resolution.

    I think as for the Middle East , a two state solution is the prefered option. However it is going to be hard to swing that one past India. A sovereign Tamil nation would be a clarion call for other seccesionist and India would not tolerate it. They might even invade, Similar to Turkish threats on Kurdistan in North Iraq.

    So GOSL can’t destroy the LTTE, LTTE won’t give up the armed struggle without self determination.
    a separate state is a bridge too far, regional devolution is not going far enough.

    What are we to do?

26. 

    Nice sophisticated comparisons. One key difference is of course that while Palestinians are pretty much hemmed in Gaza, West Bank and are unable to move around freely, most Tamils in Sri Lanka seem to be able to move around the whole of Sri Lanka, heck we ‘racist’ Sinhalese even let them have a few companies here and there, like Maharaja’s, etc. I’m also not sure whether Hamas has eliminated moderate Palestinians with the um..vigour that the LTTE has.

    if the real issue is the rights and aspirations of Tamils then why would regional devolution not be enough? Its only not enough if you are considering Prabhakarans wish for his own country.

    P.S. About the transportation of claymores into the heart of Colombo we were kind enough to give the Tigers about four years to import weaponry into Colombo with the abolishing of checkpoints, etc. They appear to have done this with gusto. Must have been part of their commitment towards peace that they are so proud off.

27. 

    so much for realpolitik !
    we are back to idealistic dreams about ltte falling bc ppl will not support it ( a thing that has never happened in history with similar competent tyrants)
    we also back to appeasement as if appeasement has ever worked, here or elsewhere.
    then there is defeatism (it’s way too premature for that)
    finally there is the ltte apologist.

    this is inevitable given that most ppl here would rather prefer a fake ‘peace’ that leave millions of people under terrorist oppression away from headlines as long as they can have ‘peace’ i colombo .

    unfortunately in reality ltte and peace don’t exist at the same time. draw the conclusion from that .
    addressing tamil grievances without appeasing ltte should be attempted but that alone will not be enough.
    nor would better intelligence or good public relations( though they have their minor place) be enough to defeat ltte.

    question is how many ppl here would realistically accept limited and proportionate military operations ( with all the collateral effects of that) that would be needed to contain ltte ( since we cannot defeat it outright) so that we can stalemate it and progressively weaken it (through negotiations and force) till either it changes itself or we can actually defeat it .

    aththa
    if your last comment is any guide you would rather be ‘realistically’ planning for the defeat of buffalo rather than ltte ? huh?

    sophist:
    Sittingnut – take a stand! Don’t – just be cause you have the time and inclination – juxtapose arguments and flog the dead horse of semantics.
    why not ? as some ppl here say words are important ( esp when examined as to their real meaning)
    contradictions and vagueness of their arguments should be pointed out .
    ( as when they ignored and derided the military operations initailly while talking of realpolitik)

    as for taking a stand . see the lower part of my first comment here. it and the linked post describe what i think will happen whatever the government is in power.
    as such i will point out why anything else will not happen. as far as predictions go i along with others have been right before . as some ppl have kindly pointed out.

28. 

    The canard that it is the ceasefire that allowed the bombs to be brought to Colombo is one that must be nailed, preferably to the backsides of the deshahitahishees who keep repeating it. That way, the dupes walking behind them may be able to see it.

    Here’s a selected list of explosive-related actions that occurred in Colombo prior to the CFA:
    Neelan Tiruchelvam blown up on Kynsey
    Chandrika losing her eye near Vihara Maha Devi
    CV Gunaratne being blown up in Ratmalana
    Attempt on Admiral Tissera in Galle
    Half the SriLankan fleet, significant part of the SLAF and the airport blown up
    The Maradana bomb
    The Slave Island bomb
    The WTC/Galadari/Hilton bomb
    Central Bank demolition
    Kolonnawa oil tanks set on fire
    Dehiwala railway bomb
    Dalada bomb

    All this happened with roads closed and checkpoints up the kazoo.

    Now people are being blown up after the roads are closed and checkpoints reinstated. And the evidence is clear that explosives are still being transported across these blessed multiple checkpoints (see my my comment about the Mabole lorry). But no, the deshahithaishee and their unthinking dupes have to blame it all on the CFA.

    Checkpoints make sense ONLY with proper intelligence. And that is something the deshahitaishee and their unthinking middle class dupes seem to lack (sorry, the deshahitahishee may not lack cunning, after all their putative boss has plenty of it; otherwise how could they dupe otherwise intelligent middle-class people into believing this load of crock?).

29. 

    you are indeed mistaken. The precondition was for the government to negotiate on the ISGA. Not accept it.

30. 

    Sittingnut I was blissfully unaware of your Nostradamian capabilities. Please tell me who will win the Champions League this season so I can put some money on it now and accumulate. Taking a stand doesn’t include ‘telling people what you think will happen’.

    Aththa I must disagree with you on one point. I do believe that military and diplomatic (for want of a better word, perhaps ‘political’), solutions are mutually exclusive. What we sometimes fail to realise is that now more than ever (see moustache) the GoSL head and LTTE head are very similar despite their polarity. The Sinhalese and Tamils distrust them both equally, and they are both unequivocal cunts.

    Let’s agree that Mahinda came in on ‘war’ mandate (forgive me for being simplistic here, but it saves time) – and the LTTE exposed that. Prabhakaran keeps bumping off people during the ceasefire. It is impossible for us, in this atmosphere of political skullduggery on both sides, to talk while fighting (because that is essentially what a military solution entails).

    Transporting claymores during the ceasefire is hardly treacherous. It is pragmatic. It is also a manifestation of the very same mistrust I have mentioned.

    One side – and I”m pretty sure that’s not going to be the LTTE – has to lay down arms, so to speak and show that they are serious about peace. It is impossible for both means to be used simultaneously because it simply breaks down trust. Which is essential for any compromise.

    The ISGA was proposed, but the proposal was such anathema to the masses at the time that it was never discussed. The prudent thing to do would have been to say ‘lets talk about it’ rather than saying ‘fuck off’ like we did. It would be foolish to come to the negotiating table without presenting your highest (or lowest as the case maybe) offer.

31. 

    If i get this correctly, Sitting Nut your strategy is to treat offence as the best form of defence and keep LTTE occupied in the NE long as possible and let it wither away under the increasingly unfavourable attention from the international community towards funding and arming of the LTTE and disllusion of NE Tamils towards a military solution by the group. plus the attrition from karuna faction should slowly erode the capacity recruit and effectvely run local administration of the LTTE areas.

    How long do u reckon?

32. 

    That’s not the strategy at all, unless you want to admit that GOSL is the instigator in the current flare up. The government reaction is purely defensive and reactive, the LTTE does something and we react. They control the game and GOSL – lacking any cogent offensive strategy – plays into their hands. They kill Kadirgamar, we react; they cut off water, we react, etc. The government is just reacting to events as they happen, not planning an endgame with any clarity. The LTTE controls this war until the government makes moves towards acting out of intelligence and strategy rather than pure reaction. Snut et al say that the current action is justified, which it is, but that doesn’t mean it accomplishes our objectives. Winning the war is much more than reacting to the latest LTTE atrocity.

33. 

    “I do believe that military and diplomatic (for want of a better word, perhaps ‘political’), solutions are mutually exclusive. ”

    Not at all, Sophist. That’s the biggest problem, that people think it has to be one or the other. It has to be a combination of the two if one is to convince the LTTE that pure agression wont work.

34. 

    We’ll have to agree to disagree on this one machan. It’s not like the government is really making too many trustworthy overtures no?

35. 

    I always wondered how to spell deshahitaishee. You’re a great bugger.

36. 

    sophist:
    prediction and prophecy, two different words .

    oscar wilde:
    treat offence as the best form of defence
    !?where did you get that ? that goes for most of the rest of your comment.
    you must have read the wrong comment of some one else .
    as i said to sophist earlier, see the lower part of my first comment here. it and the linked post describe what i think will happen whatever the government is in power.

    —
    lacking any cogent offensive strategy – plays into their hands……Winning the war is much more than reacting to the latest LTTE atrocity.
    that is a typical over simplification.
    a winning strategy does not always mean an offensive strategy.
    among others it can mean a fabian strategy.
    it means a way to stalemate a numerically(and other resource wise) weaker but militarily more capable and highly motivated enemy. stalemate is advantageous to us . victories to him.
    we shouldn’t. risk offensives ( unless they are small and we are sure of winning )in case we get defeated (as happened in the past )
    he will risk offensives ( bc stalemate is bad for him) we just have to have a robust defense ( reaction if you will ) and keep him where he started.
    as long as he does not win and gain anything there will be a stalemate .(= we win in the long run)

    this is already happening . ( and i think it is consciously implemented )
    of course throughout history some ppl were incapable of understanding this kind of strategy.( as fabius himself learned) they want offensives, victories, early ends etc.
    ltte is not going to get defeated any time soon but as long as we can keep it from gaining anything (militarily or other wise ) we will defeat it eventually.

37. 

    do you guys know where i can get some alternate info about the current offensives.. Tamilnet MOD are nearly as bad as each other objectively .. BBC and CNN seems to be run by hippies mostly, 5 lines about the war on the ground and then 15 about decades of civil war yaya humanitarian disaster yaya .. nothing i dont know already

    btw is GoSL winning or losing the battle for Jaffna @ 1.28am SL time?

38. 

    always judge by the results, not the ‘news reports’ (i.e. parroting of propaganda from both sides), if you want to know the truth . that means waiting till a situation stabilizes.

39. 

    Sittingnut,

    You are really missing the wood for the trees here. Indi was explaining Step 1 of a process. Instead of realising that, you have told him he’s wrong, that Step 1 is just part of bigger process! He knows that!

    I don’t think he ever mentioned defeating the LTTE ONLY through intelligence! How could you have reached the conclusion? Intelligence is the key to winning any war and Indi has that storyline running through his post.

    Like I have mentioned elswhere, just because someone says that war is not the solution to the conflict, don’t take umbrage and brand him/her an LTTE apologist. He/she is merely stating that there are other things to put right as well. It does not mean that they oppose militarily engaging the LTTE when necessary. But then…you always seem to miss the wood for the trees…

40. 

    the benevolent dictator
    it is clear you missed both wood and the trees.
    you seem to have not read the previous post of indi’s. there in a comment i asked, “what does this ‘hard, compromising, realpolitik’ strategy consist of? anyone care to elaborate”. ‘aththa’ jumped in and wrote a comment starting with the words, “S. Nut wishes to understand what the Realpolitik approach proposed by Indi is.” most of this blog post is rest of that comment of ‘aththa’ ( without those starting words )

    so when asked for their realpolitik strategy, they gave this nothing else. as i asked in the my first comment here “aththa, is that it? your realpolitck strategy ?”

    they may or may not advocate military operations, but they are certainly not articulating their stand one way or the other, clearly. sometimes they confine themselves and go in to detail about to things that play only minor parts in a military strategy. sometimes they are very vocal in their derision of the military, its capacity, and its operations. they also assume that military bombs civilians etc. callously and on purpose. and that military is cynical when they say some victims of bombs are ‘collateral damge’, discounting the fact that military operations will inevitably result in some so called ‘collateral damage’.

    if they are realistic, they have to express themselves clearly and honestly how they deal with necessary military operations and their consequences. ( or whether they exclude military operations) . instead they fudge. that is my main objection with this so called ‘realpolitck’ of theirs starting from last post . their ‘hard realism ‘ seem to consist of weak vague fudge.

    so when i ask whether they intend to defeat ltte by intelligence ( and ‘global pr’ , good will etc.) alone, i am asking them to be more clear and consistent about their acceptance of necessity of military operations and their inevitable( if they are realistic ) consequences. i have asked that in so many words too. but you missed that and took my first question in isolation from the what went before which you did not get either ( missed both trees and the forest ) .

    –
    i don’t think ‘war’ is ‘the’ solution to the conflict, (where did you get that idea? ). rather i consider defeating ltte ( by military force if needs be, by other methods if possible) a necessary precondition for a solution. so i do not ‘brand’ anyone who do not believe in a solution based on war . on the other hand i do consider ppl who advocate appeasing ltte for a ‘solution’, naive and/or hypocritical. i also try to expose ppl who try to disguise appeasement as some thing else.

41. 

    Snut is a bit of a broken record, but again he offers nothing but the same ideals and rhetoric. ‘ Defeat the LTTE militarily as a ‘precondition’ to a solution, military solutions etc. Great. Lovely ideals. How?

    A lot of the knee-jerk reactionaries are simple enough to see that the LTTE is bad, simple enough to understand a military response, but too dense to appreciate the military intelligence required to hit the right targets in a terrorist/guerilla war and the strategy required for a civil war. They simple assume ‘that military response’ is some silver bullet that will blow up the Death Star without realizing that they’re blind and sanctimonious response plays right into the LTTEs hands.

    Winning needs more than saying ‘win first, then negotiate’. It requires some actual thought and Realpolitick.

42. 

    asked to explain their so called realpolitik strategy, more these people run from reality, more they fudge.

    they take cover behind the same answers intelligence, good will, and pr, which alone will not defeat the ltte. they avoid mention of military operations and their consequences like so called ‘collateral damage ‘ which are inevitable, however good the intelligence. especially given ltte actively uses human shields. even the best technology cannot pinpoint bombings and even the best intelligence is never completely free of speculation. what do they think this is? a video game where you know the enemy positions after you ‘research’ military intelligence ‘advance’, train the spy, and the build the satellite? :-)
    same avoidance of reality is evident with idealistic dream of expecting loss of support will result in collapse of ltte, as if that has happened anywhere with any competent dictator. same goes for ‘global pr’ . maybe they should check what happened in other civil wars that were won.

    so much for their realism.

    or do they not want to defeat the ltte at all ? are they saying we cannot defeat it so let us appease ltte ? do they want to appease the ltte ? if so why not admit it. though i do not agree appeasement works, some ppl offline have tried to make case for appeasing the ltte on pragmatic grounds . but ppl here do not admit that either. again they fudge, again they avoidance of reality.

    they are here nor there.

    Defeat the LTTE militarily as a ‘precondition’ to a solution, military solutions etc. Great. Lovely ideals. How?
    nobody recommends exclusively military solutions.
    as to ‘how?’, what i think will happen i have described above in the lower part of my first comment and linked post. given the reality that is what will happen eventually to whatever the government is in power. its militarily part can be described as a fabian strategy. and that is actually what is being implemented .and it is working so far. ltte has lost all three offensives launched. most will get its political part as time goes on.

    but as always with fabain startegy and its political counterpart, some ppl do not get it at all. well they will have to wait and see.

43. 

    ‘Fabain startegy’ is generally used by a side which is too weak to meet its enemy in a pitched and direct battle. It is actually the strategy the LTTE is using against GOSL, not the Sri Lankan strategy. Wikipedia. It’s pretty much the strategy used by all modern guerilla/terrorist uprisings and it’s curious that you’d cite it as a GOSL strategy.

    The Fabian strategy is a military strategy where pitched battles are avoided in favor of wearing down an opponent through a war of attrition. While avoiding decisive battles, the side employing this strategy harasses its enemy to cause attrition and loss of morale. Employment of this strategy implies that the weaker side believes time is on its side, but it may also be adopted when no feasible alternative strategy can be devised.

    As to ‘ltte has lost all three offensives launched. most will get its political part as time goes on,’ though I’m unclear what that last sentence means,

    ‘To the troops, it can seem like a cowardly and demoralizing policy of continual retreat. Fabian strategy is sometimes combined with scorched earth tactics that demand sacrifice from civilian populations. Fabian leaders may be perceived as giving up territory without a fight, and since Fabian strategies promise extended war rather than quick victories, they can wear down the will of one’s own side as well as the enemy.’

44. 

    oh my a wilkipedia realist !

    fabian strategy is not guerrilla warfare even wikipedia doesn’t say such a thing. it is just one form of attrition warfare applicable in certain circumstances usually by conventional military forces. in north sl it is no longer a guerrilla war, we are long past that . if ltte was merely a guerrilla force or revert back to one in the future or in some places, we should adopt different tactics at that time and in those places .

    fabian strategy is used not so much by the weaker side as by a side that has the advantage in resources (numerical, fire power, time, and others) but is not certain to win in offensive battles bc of weakness in tactical aspects. not using that strategy in such situations can be catastrophic if enemy win decisive battles using superior tactics. .

    fabian strategy is applicable here at present bc sl military is weak in certain tactical aspects compared to ltte. military motivation is low compared to ltte, ltte can use tactics like suicide cadres, waves of expendable( to them) child cadres, human shields, while military cannot, sl military leadership is mostly mediocre while ltte has comparatively better battlefield leaders. facing reality means accepting that and knowing that we cannot decisively defeat ltte militarily at present. while ltte is quite capable of stopping sl military offensives.

    fabian strategy applied here means, we should not launch large scale offensive operations to take ltte territory but take well prepared defensive positions, as in jaffna. ltte would be forced to take the offensive if they want to continue to enjoy the advantages they enjoy and gain anything militarily. military can defend itself from prepared positions. this is what is happening right now. if military takes to offensive operations they should be small and limited in scale and certain of achieving those limited objectives eventually. we may see such limited offensives in east.

    point of all this (as i said in my first comment) is to make ltte understand it will not gain anything by military means, and force it to accept a stalemate, not to defeat ltte militarily ( not bc we do not want to defeat it but bc we are too weak to do that realistically at the moment ). a stalemate is bad for ltte in the long term bc it will become weak in such a situation ( esp. when government does not politically appease it by offering it more power ) . facing reality means accepting that we are going to have this conflict for a long time yet. mostly as a stalemate but with periodic attempts by ltte to break that stalemate, till we are capable and ltte weak enough to be defeated decisively.

    and there is no other choice. this is the only realistic strategy . military has learned that after its failed offensives in th 90s and government after appeasement in the 2001. may be you should. and yes some do not get it at first but most ppl get it in the long term.

    As to ‘ltte has lost all three offensives launched. most will get its political part as time goes on,’ though I’m unclear what that last sentence means
    what i wrote was
    what i think will happen i have described above in the lower part of my first comment and linked post. given the reality that is what will happen eventually to whatever the government is in power. its militarily part can be described as a fabian strategy. and that is actually what is being implemented .and it is working so far. ltte has lost all three offensives launched. most will get its political part as time goes on.
    selective quoting is always incomprehensible.

    Defeat the LTTE militarily as a ‘precondition’ to a solution, military solutions etc. Great. Lovely ideals.
    defeating ltte ( not exclusively by military means, which i did not say )is a precondition for a solution.
    it is not a ideal . it is reality. as long as ltte exits there will not be a solution. or peace. period
    nobody is imposing this precondition, it is a fact .

    ignoring that and believing it to be an ideal imposed by somebody will not make it any less real. and defeating ltte is going to take a long time.

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