The Demographics Of Revolution
Tuesday, March 1st, 2011
The best policy for any aspiring dictator is birth control. If you aspire to be the father of a nation, you might want to limit the number of mouths to feed. If you don’t, there’s a high probability of revolt. If you look at the map above, youth (under 25) make up around 50% of many countries. Those countries are also prone to revolt. If you think about it, young people are strong, they can stay up all night and they have little to lose. If they don’t have numbers it’s possible to suppress them, but if they have more than 50%, resisting change will be tough. It’s a common idiom that change only comes when old people die. You could add that change also comes if there are enough young people to retire them.
Rain makes the plants grow, animals eat the plants, humans chase animals, humans populate the world, forget the whole cycle. Until it floods. Rains have flooded Sri Lanka now, twice. In Colombo we notice this as a vague chilly patch with dampness of feet. In the north-central and eastern provinces, however, this is known as calamity. Roads submerged, and scourged. Houses flooded, fridges ruined, classes closed, paddy lost, money gone. I get SMS’s of statistics which somehow have little or no impact. After the first flood, the media is like, this again? It seems like another personal disaster, just affecting more people. That is, however, still a disaster.
David Brooks has written an intense and
War is, on the face of it, wrong. Well, not exactly. Losing is wrong. No one wants to be on the losing end of war. Not that everyone wants to be fighting wars either, but enough do, and it’s a heady enough thing that people can be convinced. Not starting war requires enough empathy for the loser to put yourself in their shoes, which not everybody can do. Society certainly doesn’t trend in that direction. I was reading some account of an ancient tribe which waged war almost as sport, took great pride in their abilities, and seemed to acquire no land in the process. It was just that people went out and fought, and if they were captured, were returned to their homes and then later executed in a most gruesome and public manner. Then I think they were eaten, though I can’t recall. It seems to be within us.
Much obvious work on helping the poor may actually be beside the point. As good as supplying clean water and building schools is, giving people honest work tends to be the true way out of poverty. Give a man a fish, fishing rod etc. Thus, while the West makes a show of providing development assistance, the real steps it could take to help are actually much more simple. Cut agricultural subsidies for wealthy farmers and allow easier immigration from the developing world. Both of these options, however, are politically toxic whereas everyone generally likes giving out medicine and assorted largess. It may, however, be besides the point.
I recently paid my income taxes. For me, this involves two trips to Maharagama, one trip to the bank (or into the nether reaches of my closet where my checkbook dwells) and a sizable amount of money. This year it was mostly foreign exchange so my tax bill was paltry, but last year it was painfully huge. Evading taxes in Sri Lanka is not necessarily easy, but it’s not hard. Only about 600,000 entities (including corporates) pay tax, and a lot lot more are evading. So why do I pay taxes. Honestly, so I can bitch about the government.
I recently saw a
Sri Lankan University students regularly protest and the police regularly beat them up. This is so regular than most people here have forgotten the underlying issues and think that students do nothing but protest. I don’t agree with most of the solutions the students call for (restricting privatization, guaranteeing government jobs), but I do agree with the grievance. The education system is a social contract we have with our youth. Work hard, go to uni, you’ll get a job. This is not necessarily a guarantee, but it should at least be a probability. In Sri Lanka university graduates actually have a
In the American right it’s common to say A) they hate us for our freedom or B) they love us for our freedom. It is as if it’s the character of America is what people admire. I think this is the
I was reading American Psycho in which the homicidal maniac is lovingly detailing the features of his Walkman. That book in its loving and pathological detail documents a certain dated 1980s style decadence luxurious in the abstract but moreso in relativity. That is luxury is relative to the plebes you can lord it over. Take any medieval king of England and I, with access to flush toilets, anti-biotics and airplanes, have it incomparably better then them. Yet am I happy as a king? Not so much. Why not?