Tsunami Looks Less Likely, But Don’t Go Swimming Yet
Estimated travel times of a tsunami, from the NOAA. Looks like it would’ve hit somewhere by now.
UPDATE UPDATE: another tremor has been felt. So we’re not nearly out of the woods. Basically just stay away from the coast. I think Sri Lanka has so far responded a lot better than last time.
Today’s Sumatran earthquake is looking less likely to cause a tsunami, but the situation still looks dodge. Please stay away from the coast. I say less likely because of two things, the quake moved horizontally, thus not displacing a large amount of water. Also, no tsunami seems to have hit Aceh or Indonesia (or the Andamans), and they would get it first. The ETA of a potential tsunami on the east coast would be, like, now, so I guess we’ll see. So far it’s not likely. If it did come up to Colombo, it’d be in about 40 minutes.
Horizontal Quake
Last time the Sumatran earthquake moved vertically, lifting a huge column of water that was then propelled, somewhat invisibly, until it hit the shallows of our coast and crested into a vicious tsunami. This time, however, the quake seems to have been horizontal. We felt it here, but it seems unlikely to generate the same sort of water displacement.
Bruce Presgrave of the USGS later told the BBC that the nature of this quake made it less likely a tsunami would be generated, as the earth had moved horizontally, rather than vertically, therefore had not displaced large volumes of water.
“We can’t rule out the possibility, but horizontal motion is less likely to produce a destructive tsunami,” he said. (BBC)
So that’s one thing.
No Tsunamis Elsewhere
The tragic thing last time was that we had hours to save thousands of lives. The tsunami hit Indonesia, Thailand, then the east coast of Sri Lanka, then slowly wrapped around the island. People died for lack of information, and for lack of understanding of what a tsunami was. This time, however, we do know, and we can see if a tsunami has hit those regions yet. It seems like it hasn’t.
FLASH: Indonesia’s disaster mitigation agency says no detection of low tide that would indicate tsunami in Aceh
— Reuters India (@ReutersIndia) April 11, 2012
#SRILANKA RT @PTI_News: No waves noticed so far in Andaman/Nicobar Islands; tsunami virtually ruled out, says NDMA vice presSasidhra Reddy.
— Amantha (@AmanthaP) April 11, 2012
Reax In SL
That said, people in Sri Lanka have freaked out a bit, which I think is good. Coastal trains have stopped, CEB has cut off power there (not sure exactly how that helps), and the Southern Expressway has been opened without a toll to get people off the coastal Galle Road. People have already gone home for Avurudu, but I hear that offices are letting out early. Phone lines also cloggy.
But I think there won’t be a tsunami. But still stay away from the coast, for the next hour or two at least.
Posted on Wednesday, April 11th, 2012 in Sri Lanka.
I’m happy to be featured in Echelon magazine’s 40 Under 40 feature, profiling young people who contribute to the economy in some way, mainly in business but also in terms of innovation and thought leadership. It’s an interesting article not just in that I’m in it (mainly for work on indi.ca and 
I won’t add too much commentary, but just read I guess. The youngest Rajapaksa, Rohitha (Chi Chi) has given an amazing interview to the 
In 2009 this strange character appeared on the Sri Lankan Internet scene, getting angry, flaming, trolling whatever. Then he started naming anonymous bloggers, posting comments as people’s kids, nasty stuff, for which I removed him from 
The chutzpah of this government knows no bounds. Every government since Independence has had to balance placating Sinhala nationalists (AKA racists) while at the same time actually running a sensible, inclusive nation that doesn’t send minority citizens, capital and foreign investment fleeing. Basically, they’ve had to pay lip service to nationalists while at the same time trying to run an actual nation. Every government has also generally failed, SWRD being killed by a nationalist monk and everyone after almost losing the country to various rebellions. In that context Mahinda is actually doing a better job by virtue of not being dead and not losing control of the country. But he’s still not doing a good job.
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AP: Indonesia issues new tsunami warning after powerful aftershock
This was a few minutes ago.
I felt this aftershock about 4.15pm here in Dehiwala. I was watching TV news and the annoucer said “now I can feel another tremer here in the studio”. I was wondering what the hell he’s talking about. Only a few second later I felt it too. wow, the house walls started shacking slightly and when I look up the wall corners were really shaking. wow. first time I have experienced this. now the trouble is will this new shake make a new tsunami??? they said if the first quake at 2 pm will reach colombo at 4.50pm. that was a suspense and people were leaving their houses, robbers and thieves were moving in my lane every few minutes in push bikes. now this new quakes will probably keep us wake whole night. shit
This was uploaded a few minutes ago from Indonesia, so small tsunami’s have hit. Hope it won’t get any bigger.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNZfFNq-Q5k
I think the CEB used this as an excuse to cut power supply. You know, we’re having electricity shortage in the country.
This earthquake at 8.5 is one tenth of the size of the one that happened in 2004. So even if we had a tsunami, it would be substantially smaller. The aftershocks at 8.1 are like 1/100th of the 2004 quake
The ricther scale is exponential magnitude to havoc, you’re right. Most of the news I read said the earthquake was of similar magnitude to the 2004 earthquake, so I never bothered checking. Just googled it and looks like it’s a gross misinterpretation, seeing as the 2004 earthquake was 9.0 – 9.1 in scale. However 8.6 is still relatively large, people felt it all the way in Sri Lanka.
I cant help thinking that Ajit Cabraal must be a little disappointed. I know, I know. I’m evil.