What The Polls Say
Mahinda’s poll posters, pasted on the Kanatta cemetery walls
Sarath says 45% of people support Mahinda (in Lankadeepa). Mahinda is saying it’s 58% (in posters). I dunno if Sarath is right, but I’m damn sure Mahinda is wrong. The posters say the race at 58/42. That adds up to 100, which is nice, but it also leaves for zero undecided. Which is simply not true. There are a lot of undecided until election day, which is why we have elections. I think the numbers are really more like 45/45, with 10 swinging in the middle.
Regardless, nothing is a hundred percent. Mahinda is very well-known, well-mediated and entirely shameless. From what I hear, however, undecided are swinging to Fonseka. He still has that new politician smell. Sri Lankan Tamils are moving with the TNA and Estate Tamils will decide as soon as the CWC stops fracturing and tells them what year it is. I say this jokingly, but the Estate Tamils are still basically disenfranchised in the country that tried to kick them out (with Sri Lankan Tamil support). I’m pretty sure they don’t know what symbol to vote for and would vote for the Elephant, they are so cut off.
But I digress. It is interesting that polls are going mainstream this year. In the past it was all astrologers.
What I have heard is that a lot of people are breaking to Fonseka, including a lot of undecideds. Even 42% is a shitload more than the zero he was only months ago. Fonny seems to have a lot of momentum right now, but who knows what scandals (I hear sex) and attacks will come out, and Mahinda’s overpowering ground game could, er, overpower all.
Right now, however, I think the race is tied. Only thing that’s relatively sure is that many voters remain undecided or unknowable. If Mahinda is saying Sarath is at 42 and Fonny is saying Mahinda’s at 45, that’s pretty much within the margin of error. If you read between the lines of both campaigns, I think you’ll see a dead heat. So, for the life this country, please vote.
Today on the 
Janith has updated 
This is highly dubious. Miss Travel is a travel/social networking site that connects ‘Generous’ and ‘Attractive’ travelers. To, like, travel together, I guess. It all seems a bit like arranged prostitution and trafficking. This is part of a broader online trend to connect rich men to younger, attractive women. Sites like 
Sri Lankan domestics never say anything, they just stop coming. My maid just stopped coming and when I finally pressed her she said I needed to get a washing machine. I was hoping to ride this one out, but I’ve run out of underwear and I have no choice. I finally caved and bought a washing machine, from 
I never thought Sarath had a chance but my husband met an academic and Mahinda man from the south who said there
is a swing for Sarath in the south.
He’s using his Karava caste to his advantage in the rural backward South.
You are pretty much at it. Are on contract to do some kind of word of mouth marketing to help sway the undecided towards SF? Seems pretty much like it.
Colombo would support SF. Colombo has more or less been the forte of UNP. But it is not the entire country. And also has the most selfish lot. I think the rural communities are more towards Mahinda.
I’m not really sure there’s been any real swing towards SF. I think it’s a more a case of his supporters convincing themselves themselves that there has been such a swing, and then talking about it until it seems real.
Totally agree. I think there is a lot of hype.
I’ve seen various polling data which has shown a quite a big swing to Fonny. Especially among the minorities, but on a provincial level as well. Even if Mahinda is pegging SF at 42% in his internal polls, that’s still a big swing.
Which polls?
If you’re talking about online ones, forget about them. Large percentage of Sri Lankans still don’t have electricity, let alone internet to be voting in an internet poll.
I agree. Polling in SL is fairly iffy.
No, actual door to door national polls with decent sample sizes. There are actually a few good polling people here.
Whoever wins, we, gotta be on our guard.
Who’s doing these door to door polls?
Oh David Blacker, what a fucking genius you are. “Polling in Sri Lanka is fairly iffy”. It’s violent and deadly and you bloody know it. Wake up and smell the rotting flesh around you.
Lol, you need to go and have a lie down.
In fact if your an astrologer you could end up in jail!
while I agree that there is a significant undecided proportion, i dont necessarily agree with the statement that more undecided people are turning towards SF. what i feel is SFs campaign sucks. neither JVP nor UNP is taking responsibility. with the mud slinging has increased to the unpresidented levels, i don’t think people in SL will want to think logically as to what is happening. they are more emotional than intelligent and MR and co is taking advantage of it. i really hope that JVP and UNP will get their act together and work towards the change we all are waiting for