Election Predictions, With Data Even
Polling map from last time (see old post)
I have asked around and I can find no proper polls. Certainly none with much of a source. One big monkey in the wrench is that there are now thousands more in the North and East who will vote. Possibly two million, but certainly more than the 36% who voted last time. This changes the dynamic a lot. This is on Hypothetical Analysis (Word) on what could happen. Is very hypothetical, but looks competitive.
Actually, nevermind, I think the document is from Parliament somehow. These are two forecasts, both looking quite close. I have edited these tables to fit. For full, please look at the document.
| Major Ethnic Groups | Valid Votes | MR | SF | |||
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |
| Sinhalese | 8,424,360 | 99.0% | 4,633,398 | 55.0% | 3,731,991 | 44.3% |
| SL Tamils | 868,198 | 98.9% | 182,322 | 21.0% | 607,738 | 70.0% |
| Muslims | 1,039,375 | 99.0% | 291,025 | 28.0% | 744,193 | 71.6% |
| Ind. Tamils | 618,859 | 98.8% | 326,138 | 52.7% | 290,864 | 47.0% |
| Others | 33,090 | 99.2% | 12,905 | 39.0% | 19,854 | 60.0% |
| TOTAL | 10,983,881 | 99.0% | 5,445,788 | 49.58% | 5,394,640 | 49.11% |
By race
| District | Valid Votes | MR | SF | |||
| # | % | # | % | # | % | |
| Colombo | 1,205,308 | 99.0% | 543,594 | 45.10% | 650,867 | 54.00% |
| Gampaha | 1,167,775 | 99.0% | 595,565 | 51.00% | 564,036 | 48.30% |
| Kalutara | 652,132 | 99.0% | 340,413 | 52.20% | 309,762 | 47.50% |
| Mahanuwara | 762,254 | 98.8% | 369,693 | 48.50% | 386,463 | 50.70% |
| Matale | 267,201 | 98.7% | 138,945 | 52.00% | 126,386 | 47.30% |
| Nuwaraeliya | 360,590 | 98.6% | 172,001 | 47.70% | 185,704 | 51.50% |
| Galle | 619,066 | 99.1% | 306,438 | 49.50% | 308,914 | 49.90% |
| Matara | 465,124 | 99.2% | 243,260 | 52.30% | 218,608 | 47.00% |
| Hambantota | 342,264 | 99.1% | 187,561 | 54.80% | 152,308 | 44.50% |
| Jaffna | 463,257 | 98.8% | 60,223 | 13.00% | 347,443 | 75.00% |
| Vanni | 181,818 | 98.7% | 50,909 | 28.00% | 120,000 | 66.00% |
| Batticaloa | 247,230 | 98.8% | 111,254 | 45.00% | 131,032 | 53.00% |
| Digamadulla | 324,969 | 99.0% | 147,211 | 45.30% | 175,483 | 54.00% |
| Trincomalee | 181,062 | 98.8% | 63,372 | 35.00% | 115,880 | 64.00% |
| Kurunegala | 938,397 | 99.1% | 495,474 | 52.80% | 436,355 | 46.50% |
| Puttalam | 387,589 | 99.0% | 186,818 | 48.20% | 197,670 | 51.00% |
| Anuradhapura | 452,582 | 98.9% | 229,007 | 50.60% | 220,408 | 48.70% |
| Polonnaruwa | 225,029 | 99.1% | 115,890 | 51.50% | 107,114 | 47.60% |
| Badulla | 459,081 | 98.6% | 241,017 | 52.50% | 214,391 | 46.70% |
| Moneragala | 241,085 | 99.0% | 140,070 | 58.10% | 98,845 | 41.00% |
| Ratnapura | 604,272 | 99.1% | 312,409 | 51.70% | 287,029 | 47.50% |
| Kegalle | 492,317 | 99.0% | 250,589 | 50.90% | 238,281 | 48.40% |
| TOTAL | 11,040,403 | 99.0% | 5,301,713 | 48.02% | 5,592,977 | 50.66% |
By district
| Forecast | Registered Voters | Valid | MR | SF | |||
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Forecast I | 14,088,500 | 10,983,881 | 99.00% | 5,445,788 | 49.58% | 5,394,640 | 49.11% |
| Forecast II | 11,040,403 | 99.00% | 5,301,713 | 48.02% | 5,592,977 | 50.66% | |
| Conclusion | 14,088,500 | 11,012,142 | 98.97% | 5,373,751 | 48.30% | 5,493,809 | 49.37% |
In sum
I still think Mahinda’s going to win… and it’s not going to be as close as the above forecasts predict. Despite the TNA supporting Fonseka I think a lot of Tamils will not vote, especially those in the north of the country. Most Sinhalese will end up voting for Mahinda – Fonseka is starting to look like a loon with all the disparate elements crowding around him such as the TNA, SLMC, JVP, UNP, SLFP faction… one wonders how a coherent plan for Sri Lanka is going to emerge from such a motley crew – do they even have any fucking plan besides “ending corruption” (look who Fonseka is hanging around, kings of corruption themselves) and “beating Mahinda”? Serious question. To top it all off, the UNP-JVP alliance takes the cake for the WTF factor. A Fonseka government would be one of the most unstable coalitions of all time, certainly not something Sri Lanka needs at this particular point in time. What Sri Lanka needs is political stability, whether corrupt or not. Further, Fonseka doesn’t have any friends in the Airforce and Navy (especially since he insists only he alone was responsible for the war victory) and things will get dicey if he wins and tries to boss other people around. At this point in time, Fonseka is a liability to Sri Lanka. He has absolutely no political experience, will bungle our closely cultivated relatinship with India and will be relying on the likes of Mangala Samaraweera and Ranil Wickremasinghe for advice; he’ll be a puppet and nothing more.
Didn’t Mahinda come into power originally wiht a JVP-JHU-Sinhala Uramaya coalition?
I think he’s more likely to be a dictator than a puppet.
Your analysis seems to be quite rudimentary… To represent Sri Lanka, you need a minimum of 3000 homes surveyed. Some say it needs a 25000 homes. A more scientific analysis conducted by certain academics show a mid- December vs. mid-January change of status as MR gaining 56 to 57%, SF loosing 37to30% and undecided growing 5to11%. The analysts are baffled by this result, as in many other elections, the undecided band narrows rather than expand rapidly as we near polls. I attribute this to the TNA factor, which really tarnished SF’s patriotic credentials… drifting his image deep into the failed enterprise EELAM..
ah well, this will be useful as “another one of those” who got the wrong end of the stick.
That is as useful as it is going to be.
Great Post .. I have been starved of election forecasts on Sri Lanka
Not to be rude, but I hope your forecast and judgment is not like the following picture you posted in 2005.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/indi/305213158/sizes/o/
I am asking because there’s no source to the document, but who actually did the analysis?
Hi, i did this survey
Any comments pl. send to
Ajiwadeen
Electoral Political Analyst
Sri Lanka
normaly jaffna voting aroung 50%,in the histrory we can see the they are not vote more than 50% and also Devamande with MR. Jaffna prediction completly wrong,
2005 Presidential Election result was
Mahinda Rajapakse United People’s Freedom Alliance – 4,887,152 and 50.29%
Ranil Wickremesinghe
United National Party 4,706,366 and 48.43%
In 2005 JVP votes were given to Mahinda Rajapaksha. According provincial council election results, there are more than 234,000 votes for JVP. If we think half of that will vote Mahinda and other half will vote for Genaral Fonseka the result will be 4,823,366 for Fonseka and 4,770,152 for Mahinda. Based on that we can imagine Fonseka’s victory though we ignore other facts.
I voted for Mahinda last time. But here I’m voting for Fonseka this time.
Yes I agree
..
The election outcome is changing day by day with Fonseka gaining popularity and Mahinda losing popularity. It will be close, but I think Fonseka can win.
Think twice before you cast your vote this time. Who will be able to provide you with the freedom to move about anywhere without fear that you all enjoy in your country today. Never think about the colour of the party just think about the benefits that you will gain by the cross that you put on this day. If you hate someone and going to elect another, just think whether that person is better or worse than the other. I do not live in Sri Lanka so I am not going to gain any benefit by writing this. But you all will get the results by choosing someone without any political experience, without any strong political support or any principals. Look at the people behind Sarath Fonseka! Have they ever stood for you all Sinhala people when you really need it?
THE WINNER IS ( MR ) I WILL SHOW HOW HE MEET THIS TARGET.
IF LAST 8 PC ELECTION RESULT CONVERTING TO PRESENT TOTAL NO OF VOTES.
WILL TAKE LAST PC ELECTION POLLED AS 65% (THIS IS CONFIRMED.)
MR TOTAL AROUND 65% AVERAGE. ( SOME DISTRICT IT WAS 73% , 69% , 68% ETC ) THIS 65% VOTE BASES ONLY FOR UPFA PARTY AND PC CANDIDATES. WE CAN THINK IN CASE OR MR IT WILL BE CLOSED TO 70% BUT WILL TAKE AS 65%.
IT MEANS AT THE TIME OF SOUTH PC ELECTION THE UPFA VOTE BASE TOTAL 65% AND OPPOSITE 35%
GENERALLY WE CAN EXPECT 80% VOTES FOR THIS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION COMPARING TO PAST .
2010 REGISTERED VOTES APPROXIMATELY 140 LAKS AND BASED ON 80% POLLED IT WILL BE 112 LAKS.
FORCAST
MR SF
PC VOTE BASE WITH 65% POLLED
( 140X65%X65% ) 59.15 31.85
BALANCE ( 140X15%X65% ) 13.65 7.35
FORCAST PC VOTE BASE WITH 80% POLLED 72.80 39.20
TARGET ( 140X80% / 2 + 1 ) 56 56
EXCESS / SHORTAGE 16.80 ( OVER ) 16.80 ( SHORTAGE )
PERCENTAGE OF EXCESS/SHORTAGE 23% 43%
IF SF NEED TO WIN HE MUST MEET FOLLOWINGS.
( 1 ) SF MUST DOMINATE TOTAL PC VOTE BASE BY 100% WHICH IS BELONGS TO ( UNP + JVP )
( 2 ) SF MUST INCREASE HIS VOTE BASE BY 43%
IN THE OTHERWORD MR VOTE BASE MUST REDUCE BY 23% AND SAME 23% MUST GO TO SF.
HUGE TARGET.
NOW THINK SF REDUCING % FROM THE POINT NO ( 1 )
WHAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF GETTING TOTAL (UNP+JVP) VOTE BASE TO THE SF ? ACCORDING TO THE RELIABLE SOURCES SF NOT GETTING 100% UNP VOTES AND MANY JVP VOTES NOW CONVERTED TO THE UPFA.
SECONDLY , RELIABLE SOURCES SAYS WITHDRAWALS FROM MR LESS THAN 10% AND MAY BE HALF FROM SUCH QUANTITY WILL DEPOSIT TO THE SF VOTE BANK.
SEE THE RESULT BY YOUR SELF AND COMMENT ME. LIKE TO HEAR YOUR IDEA TOO.
wpalace@yahoo.com
What a fool you are to present forecasts by taking PC election results on to issue.
1. At least 10,00,000 UNP votes were not voted in the PC election.,
Since they are not government changing elections.
2.And they could sell the war victory very well in those elections but this time all their plans are going in vain.
3.It seems to be that you are a blind MR supporter who thinks that MR is a very powerful guy, and no one can beat him.
4.The patriotic feelings of people which brought MR to power last time are not going to help MR this time since people very well know for what MR uses the patriotic feeling of people.
You are showing that you are an expert with all your forecasts and numbers.
SEE THE REAL SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY. TRY TO RECOGNIZE THE DEFERENCE IN THE SOCIETY.THIS IS NOT MAY 18th.
Just take 2005 election but dont tack all
Dear Shehan
Pls check my point no ( 1 ) and what reaction now a days practically from many part of Sri Lanka. Yes SF must dominate ( UNP+JVP ) vote base first of all.
You are not agreed with me to work on PC election vote base. If not on what basis we should work, PC election is the last official election held in Sri Lanka. It shows the public opinion up to 2009.
Are you going to compare with 2005 results ? We must take PC election result first and then consider how the variations taken place. Check how many extra votes need by SF and how SF going to take same from MR.
Ok friend listen me carefully.
Tell me what are the reasons behind to gather people to any political party ?
Reasons are
( 1 ) Old Relationship with the political party. ( Many peoples in Sri Lanka those days belongs to UNP, SLFP, JVP like that )
( 2 ) Policies of the political party
( 3 ) Performance during the last regime or the present regime
( 4 ) Personnel Benefits obtained from the Political party ( Like Jobs, Land, Loan etc )
( 5 ) Leadership of the political party.
( 6 ) Organizational chart ( From leader to organizers )
Beacuse of this points peoples gathering to the political parties. So Sri Lankans gather under UNP/UNF , SLFP/PA/UPFA , JVP flags.
What is the stand for NDF ( Nava Prajathanthrawadi peramuna ) ? Pls check my points one by one.
Now UNP members want to clarify what is NDF and the leader SF is suitable for them. Why UNP crowd want to go to the SF meetings recently ? They must know SF policies and his future plan. UNP member ultimate wish is to secure there party of UNP and not NDF.
Most important factor is SF is not a UNP member but common candidate of JVP.
Now think the possibilities of transfering of UNP vote base to SF by your self. But following party leader RW instructions considerable vote base will transfer to the SF bank. But its uncertain and I am sure that 100% votes not will come to SF bank.
This is technical error.
There so many examples in my hand, But more time need to write.
I am not a expert. I like to learn from you if you can point out more information.
Regards
Kumar
I think definitely president Mahinda Rajapakshe win. I don’t agree with Kaluthara, Gampaha, Galle, Trinco, Bati, Monaragala, Ampara and Nuwaraeliya forecasted percentages. MR will get more than these amounts in these districts. my perentages are;
MR – 53% & SF – 45%
ur correct Zaheer some of the details r in correct
coz budulla nd matale districs will win by SF for sure
nd in nuwara eliya he cant get 170,000 votes only less then 150,000
north and east even there r only few votes to mahinda
so final result wold be 53SF nd 45 MR
Dear Friends
Finally what happened was SF did not manage to dominate ( UNP + JVP ) vote base, Its very clear.
Kumar