http://fakerajapakse.blogspot.com/

Amen to that David!

It’s OK, man. I know you wish you’d actually fought, and not just talked. “What did you do do in the war, Daddy?” “I had a blog called Voice in Colombo on which I posted rubbish that no one read.”

Dude, the Army deserters have more in their small toe than you’ll ever have in a lifetime.

No worries. We shouldn’t expect much of wisdom from Army Deserters! You act like a “veteran war hero” among a bunch of Colombo 07 kids, aged 18 to 25. Just like those other Army Deserters who now boast about their time in the army, sitting inside “Kopi Kade’s”. Only difference is they don’t have a blog!

“In his place came D.B. Wijetunga, who was a breath of fresh air–a real Demorat. He had free and fair elections, and allowed a very smooth democratic transition of power to Chandrika”

Sometimes it’s hard for people to “swallow” the truth, when it was offered a good one and a half years ago.

Here we go! More than a year ago I had to say this.
http://landlikenoother.blogspot.com/2007/07/where-theres-no-war-theres-no-market.html

And this!
http://landlikenoother.blogspot.com/2006/09/up-to-sampoor-and-where-to-next.html

Now the people who talk about LTTE”s final defeat in Mulativu, had something similar to this to say, about an year ago…..

1) LTTE is too strong a Guarilla organization. It can never be totally neutralized!
2) LTTE laying down arms and coming to talks is “very 80ish”
3) Government may have liberated East. But they will run out of money, before they even come near Killinochchi.

// He’s also controlling the perception of reality, so it’s hard to tell, but most sources say the LTTE is losing and getting on boats and fleeing the fuck away (Jeyaraj). Which is to say, perhaps we’re close to ending this war.\\
You had to wait until Jeyaraj telling this to you, to understand that we are close to ending this war :-)

And about your comments on Premadasa and JVP….. I think, I pointed this same thing to you, in one of your own blog post, about a one and half years ago. I took the same analogy how Premadasa crushed JVP, and explained you how Mahinda should use the same tactics against LTTE. But you believed, a negotiated solution would have been better! Now you talk about Premadasa and JVP!!!

//So do we take this one? I guess it comes down to a deal.\\ A vast majority of the people of this country, came to that deal a 3 years ago. You didn’t know, because you don’t feel the pulse of this country.

// Is the LTTE and terrorism such a dire threat that you’re willing to throw innocent lives, major democratic institutions, a shitload of money and basic ethics and morality out of the window? At this point I honestly don’t know.\\

Point #1 is, “Yes. It’s such a dire”.
Point #2 is, “No. We have not thrown anything marked bold above, out of the window. It’s only speculation of the social network you are linked to. Ask from a normal Sri Lankan who travel by bus or train, who listen to Sinhala or Tamil music, who talk either in Sinhala or Tamil, in their homes (These people represent 95% of population in this country. The real Sri Lankans). They will tell you “No. No such things were thrown out of window”.

Somehow, I’m glad to see, you are finally showing some signs of “grounding your feet” to Sri Lankan soil. Walk and talk to people. That will help you to see things in advance, than this. You waited to write this post, until the SL Army surrounded a small 20KM by 30KM piece of land as the so called “Tamil Ealam”; for the final battle against the tigers. In few weeks, the war will be over under this government, as I predicted during whole of last 2 years, on Kottu. You thought otherwise. Now you start to show signs of believing it to happen.

Welcome to the party!

But I do think that Prabhakaran will have his tryst with justice after all. Yes, yes, he may get out alive, melt into the jungle, start a guerilla war, etc. etc. But square one is an awfully depressing place for an ageing, overweight sun-god to find himself at after thirty years of hard murder. If he is not facing annhilation just yet, he is almost certainly facing ruin.

That Mahinda seems to be the instrument of justice brings more than a little ambiguity to the proceedings. How I wish he were a Lincoln, driven by high ideals and noble principles instead of base and brutish whims. But there’s a job to be done, and, well, he appears to be the chosen one. Not unprecedented. The man more responsible than any other for Hitler’s demise was the scarcely less monstrous Stalin.

Mahinda may bring victory, maybe even peace, but there’s a fear that it may be of the sort that Mugabe brought Zimbabwe. Then again, perhaps, at a certain critical moment, he will be awakened from his Dutugemunu daydreams by the spirit of Asoka the Great – once the ruthless conqueror of India, converted at the killing fields to become propogator of enlightenment.

Here’s hoping.

If the LTTE’s conventional military capability is broken at Mullaitivu, and it disappears underground once more, that will be great achievement for the GoSL, far surpassing even what was achieved at Vadamarachchi in 1987. Yes, it’ll still take money to chase down and destroy those guerrilla forces, but if the GoSL can actually create a stable administration in the northeast, foreign investment could shoulder a lot of the financial weight.

I think the differences between the JVP and the LTTE are:

1. LTTE is a far superior fighting force than the JVP. The JVP never actually fought, they had hit squads that killed people but no organised military force.
2. The JVP was most effective because they used threats of violence, reinforced by acts of violence against people who did not obey, in order to close down businesses and life in general.
3. The numbers o fthe LTTE are probably greater than those ofthe JVP and they have well organised financing and supply networks.
4. The LTTE is capable of carrying on an effective guerilla war (if they are not destroyed at Mullaitivu or whereever the next big battle is). If they run away and abandon all their territories they can make an effective come back in six months or a year – as a guerilla force.
5. Cruicially, the government does not have the funds to support this extent of war for any length of time. The cost of holding the territories captured and dealing with a guerilla war may prove to be impossibly expensive, which means that it is only a question of time before the trouble starts again. It was after CBK’s governemnt ran out of money in 2000 and starved the military of materials that the LTTE captured much ofthe territory they are now being driven out of. Pooneryn, Elephant Pass etc etc culiminating in the airport attack of 2001.

Of course this government may not repeatthe same mistake, they may well starve the citizenry and supply the military.

A lot depends on what the Tigers do. If they run away then they will live to fight another day and that will mean returning to the same situation. If they fight a last pitched battle, they will be destroyed and there is hope. The government then needs to deal with an aliened, frighted and resntful minority. If things go back to normal an dthey get on with their lives they may forget and things will be ok. If the repression is kept on, then it will only be a question of time before a new and violent leadership emerges.