What If I’m Wrong?
And the war is right. I guess I’d honestly be happy if Mahinda ended the war. I’m not sure about the ‘by whatever means necessary’ part as it is entirely unethical, but maybe that’s what’s, errr, necessary. This is just a thought exercise, and it’s an argument I hear from a lot of reasonable people. Mahinda Rajapakse was elected on a mandate to thrash the LTTE, and he’s doing it. He’s also controlling the perception of reality, so it’s hard to tell, but most sources say the LTTE is losing and getting on boats and fleeing the fuck away (Jeyaraj). Which is to say, perhaps we’re close to ending this war. And perhaps Mahinda was the man to do it. Which is a bit of a skull-fuck, cause I don’t like him.
I mean, Premadasa was killing people something special in the streets. Everyone I know from that period remembers seeing dead bodies. Burning on the street, floating in the rivers and canals. Everyone I know that was around literally remember dead bodies in the street. My friend was picked up for just looking JVP (that Sinhala insurrection) and beaten within an inch of his life by the cops. He still can’t wear proper shoes cause his feet are fucked up. However, and I hesitate using such a casual transition from something something horrible, but, however, the JVP was a Khmer Rouge style insurrection and it would have totally, tragically sucked if they took over the country. And they were crushed, underfoot. Along with a lot of innocent people. And most Sri Lankans, I think, were happy with that. They took that deal.
So do we take this one? I guess it comes down to a deal. Is the LTTE and terrorism such a dire threat that you’re willing to throw innocent lives, major democratic institutions, a shitload of money and basic ethics and morality out of the window? At this point I honestly don’t know.
hmmm…quite true what you are saying…i guess majority of the people are quite ready to take the deal..just like during the 80s..
I have pondered this question.
I think the differences between the JVP and the LTTE are:
1. LTTE is a far superior fighting force than the JVP. The JVP never actually fought, they had hit squads that killed people but no organised military force.
2. The JVP was most effective because they used threats of violence, reinforced by acts of violence against people who did not obey, in order to close down businesses and life in general.
3. The numbers o fthe LTTE are probably greater than those ofthe JVP and they have well organised financing and supply networks.
4. The LTTE is capable of carrying on an effective guerilla war (if they are not destroyed at Mullaitivu or whereever the next big battle is). If they run away and abandon all their territories they can make an effective come back in six months or a year – as a guerilla force.
5. Cruicially, the government does not have the funds to support this extent of war for any length of time. The cost of holding the territories captured and dealing with a guerilla war may prove to be impossibly expensive, which means that it is only a question of time before the trouble starts again. It was after CBK’s governemnt ran out of money in 2000 and starved the military of materials that the LTTE captured much ofthe territory they are now being driven out of. Pooneryn, Elephant Pass etc etc culiminating in the airport attack of 2001.
Of course this government may not repeatthe same mistake, they may well starve the citizenry and supply the military.
A lot depends on what the Tigers do. If they run away then they will live to fight another day and that will mean returning to the same situation. If they fight a last pitched battle, they will be destroyed and there is hope. The government then needs to deal with an aliened, frighted and resntful minority. If things go back to normal an dthey get on with their lives they may forget and things will be ok. If the repression is kept on, then it will only be a question of time before a new and violent leadership emerges.
The JVP/DJV was purely a terrorist group, with no real guerrilla capability. Funnily they were always referred to as ‘subversives’, and never ‘terrorists’. The LTTE uses terrorism, but the vast majority of its infrastructure is focused on operating guerrilla forces, maintaining a conventional military capability (garrisons, artillery, police, civil administration), and running a quasi-state.
If the LTTE’s conventional military capability is broken at Mullaitivu, and it disappears underground once more, that will be great achievement for the GoSL, far surpassing even what was achieved at Vadamarachchi in 1987. Yes, it’ll still take money to chase down and destroy those guerrilla forces, but if the GoSL can actually create a stable administration in the northeast, foreign investment could shoulder a lot of the financial weight.
No, we are not. There is a distinction between the LTTE and the tamil people. There is a STRONG distinction between free media and the JVP. We cannot accept what is currently happening in this country. It is impossible to believe that the Sri Lankan people, be they Sinhalese or Tamil can live freely under this country under the current administration. We will be a fascist regime, we will not be allowed free speech, how is that acceptable? If Mahinda was brought to power on a mandate to win the war against the LTTE, its important to ask the question then why did the LTTE prevent the Tamil people voting and thus indirectly place on Mahinda’s head the crown he’s using to crush this country with?
I think you are right Indi, to be confused. Andrew Sullivan spent much of last year extolling doubt as a virtue, and there’s something in what he’s saying. Considering all that has happened in 2009 (and we’re only 11 days in!), this is no time for glib certitudes.
But I do think that Prabhakaran will have his tryst with justice after all. Yes, yes, he may get out alive, melt into the jungle, start a guerilla war, etc. etc. But square one is an awfully depressing place for an ageing, overweight sun-god to find himself at after thirty years of hard murder. If he is not facing annhilation just yet, he is almost certainly facing ruin.
That Mahinda seems to be the instrument of justice brings more than a little ambiguity to the proceedings. How I wish he were a Lincoln, driven by high ideals and noble principles instead of base and brutish whims. But there’s a job to be done, and, well, he appears to be the chosen one. Not unprecedented. The man more responsible than any other for Hitler’s demise was the scarcely less monstrous Stalin.
Mahinda may bring victory, maybe even peace, but there’s a fear that it may be of the sort that Mugabe brought Zimbabwe. Then again, perhaps, at a certain critical moment, he will be awakened from his Dutugemunu daydreams by the spirit of Asoka the Great – once the ruthless conqueror of India, converted at the killing fields to become propogator of enlightenment.
Here’s hoping.
A reality check: Premadasa used the war against the JVP to take out a crap load of political opponents. Everyone–and I mean everyone–who remotely even thought of defying him were shitting their pants in anticipation of the terrible fate that could befall them. Many left the country. It was that bad, even after the JVP had been shot/tortured into oblivion. We were heading toward an extended Pinochet-type regime. And then we were saved…when the LTTE blew him up. In his place came D.B. Wijetunga, who was a breath of fresh air–a real Demorat. He had free and fair elections, and allowed a very smooth democratic transition of power to Chandrika. If we are thankful that Premadasa was there to save us from the JVP through any means necessary, we must also be thankful that he was removed from the stage before our tacit acceptance of his brutality backfired on all of us. So by that reasoning, after this LTTE war is done, someone must…
Our parents stood for Premadasa’s style of presidency and actually sweep the atrocities under the carpet, since he did so much to the rural areas and all that. I suppose most people feel that, all what is happening now are a sign of better things to come. Macabre as it seems.
It’s just amazingly frustrating being young and not understanding the passive -shrug- it’s the way things are run around here- nature they have.
What really is the deal we are getting? Aren’t the Rajapakses just replacing one form of terrorism with state sponsored terror- the depths of which are infinite? Wasn’t that the case with Premadasa and the LTTE put an end to it. Who is going to challenge the Rajapakses now?
Yupeee! Look here whom do we have for the final party! Indi, Under Dog, JackPoint, and my good OLD friend David Blacker!
Sometimes it’s hard for people to “swallow†the truth, when it was offered a good one and a half years ago.
Here we go! More than a year ago I had to say this.
http://landlikenoother.blogspot.com/2007/07/where-theres-no-war-theres-no-market.html
And this!
http://landlikenoother.blogspot.com/2006/09/up-to-sampoor-and-where-to-next.html
Now the people who talk about LTTEâ€s final defeat in Mulativu, had something similar to this to say, about an year ago…..
1) LTTE is too strong a Guarilla organization. It can never be totally neutralized!
2) LTTE laying down arms and coming to talks is “very 80ishâ€
3) Government may have liberated East. But they will run out of money, before they even come near Killinochchi.
// He’s also controlling the perception of reality, so it’s hard to tell, but most sources say the LTTE is losing and getting on boats and fleeing the fuck away (Jeyaraj). Which is to say, perhaps we’re close to ending this war.\\
You had to wait until Jeyaraj telling this to you, to understand that we are close to ending this war :-)
And about your comments on Premadasa and JVP….. I think, I pointed this same thing to you, in one of your own blog post, about a one and half years ago. I took the same analogy how Premadasa crushed JVP, and explained you how Mahinda should use the same tactics against LTTE. But you believed, a negotiated solution would have been better! Now you talk about Premadasa and JVP!!!
//So do we take this one? I guess it comes down to a deal.\\ A vast majority of the people of this country, came to that deal a 3 years ago. You didn’t know, because you don’t feel the pulse of this country.
// Is the LTTE and terrorism such a dire threat that you’re willing to throw innocent lives, major democratic institutions, a shitload of money and basic ethics and morality out of the window? At this point I honestly don’t know.\\
Point #1 is, “Yes. It’s such a direâ€.
Point #2 is, “No. We have not thrown anything marked bold above, out of the window. It’s only speculation of the social network you are linked to. Ask from a normal Sri Lankan who travel by bus or train, who listen to Sinhala or Tamil music, who talk either in Sinhala or Tamil, in their homes (These people represent 95% of population in this country. The real Sri Lankans). They will tell you “No. No such things were thrown out of windowâ€.
Somehow, I’m glad to see, you are finally showing some signs of “grounding your feet†to Sri Lankan soil. Walk and talk to people. That will help you to see things in advance, than this. You waited to write this post, until the SL Army surrounded a small 20KM by 30KM piece of land as the so called “Tamil Ealamâ€; for the final battle against the tigers. In few weeks, the war will be over under this government, as I predicted during whole of last 2 years, on Kottu. You thought otherwise. Now you start to show signs of believing it to happen.
Welcome to the party!
Lol, VIC, of the people you’ve named, only Jack’s commented on those posts you’ve linked to, and of your three points, only the third point (money) has even been touched on. Don’t pat yourself too hard on the back ‘cos you weren’t the lone Voice in the Wilderness (that’s VIW). There were two schools of thought on whether the war could be won — you were in one school.
Did I say all the people I named above commented on my posts? Typical “Blackerish” response. Never read beyond the literal meanings of the words. Those 3 points were only a summary of the overall beliefs of the people I’ve named. On my blog (sometimes) and all over the blogosphere.
No worries. We shouldn’t expect much of wisdom from Army Deserters! You act like a “veteran war hero” among a bunch of Colombo 07 kids, aged 18 to 25. Just like those other Army Deserters who now boast about their time in the army, sitting inside “Kopi Kade’s”. Only difference is they don’t have a blog!
Ah yes. aaaallllll over the blogosphere, no? Haha OK, Vicky, if you say so. BTW, good tactic to get traffic to your blog. I noticed you didn’t have much to say these days. looks like its it’s not only Alexander who wanted to fight his battles again. Lol.
It’s OK, man. I know you wish you’d actually fought, and not just talked. “What did you do do in the war, Daddy?” “I had a blog called Voice in Colombo on which I posted rubbish that no one read.”
Dude, the Army deserters have more in their small toe than you’ll ever have in a lifetime.
“Dude, the Army deserters have more in their small toe than you’ll ever have in a lifetime.”
Amen to that David!
im looking at this and i dont know whether to laugh or to cry
sorry i meant specifically this btw:
“In his place came D.B. Wijetunga, who was a breath of fresh air–a real Demorat. He had free and fair elections, and allowed a very smooth democratic transition of power to Chandrika”
indi.ca and other sinhala sons and daughters, I decided join your bandwagon. Please visit my new blog and let me know your thoughts. It will really help your thought exrcise.
http://fakerajapakse.blogspot.com/