There are plenty of people who have, upto now been able to amass wealth fairly and I have no problem with private wealth.

However in time to come, it will be ever more difficult for people to continue to do this: rocketing inflation and interest rates, an unstable political situation, a rapidly depreciating currency, a growing tax burden, creaking infrastructure (power, roads, transport to name a few) will sap investor confidence and make growth difficult.

There are lots of hard-working people with the ingenuity and inspiration to prosper. Don’t kill that by saying “umpire hora”.

Note that there is little if any new wealth being generated, only transfers from the public at large to the pockets of the priviledged.

Hey Indi, any comments on this discussion?

These days more is written about the LTTE than views and culture of the Sri Lankan army itself.

Also, in really small countries, it’s more possible for a faction within the Army to sieze power. In SL, you’d need unanimous support throughout the armed forces for success. If not, you’d have a couple of battalions of Gajabas or whatever trying to fight their waayy from Trinco to Colombo past the STF and the Sinha Rifles, while the SLAF bombed the shit out of them.

You can probably throw counter arguments at each of my coup “necessities”, but in reality a coup d’etat is a rarity, and is the result of extraordinary circumstances.

The only other time there was even a sniff of a coup was when Cecil Waidyaratne was Army Commander, but he was got rid of poste haste.

You maybe correct about Pakistan, and if their armed forces are similarly motivated as the Turks, then yes, it’s an unifying factor; and one which isn’t aparent here.

Remember, this is the Army that quite cheerfully killed off thousands of their fellow Sinhalese Buddhists in two successive decades on the say-so of the state.

‘Hundreds of thousands of Moroccans live in abject poverty in slums and shanty towns.

It reflects the huge gap between rich and poor in Morocco: some people live in luxury, others live literally in a toilet.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6718249.stm

They say you have to be patient and give it at least 5 years.

One thing I find difficult is to overcome the guilt of millions of people being much worse off than me in the same country I live. Here, I can share a drink with my garbage collector, or plumber and not feel guilty about the job they have to do.

Also, you’re completely wrong to suggest that Musharraf came to power with the call to replace Sharif with a more Islamic minded leader. Sharif was undoubtedly one of the more fundamentalist leaders in recent times. He saw through the passing of the Shariat Bill and was flirting with the idea of having Sharia courts installed all over Pakistan. I think it was the judiciary, who along with the military are considered the secular influences on Pakistan who stalled this move. Many secular Pakistanis thought there was a danger of Pakistan sliding towards a theocracy and a lot of these people were thrilled when Musharraf pulled his stunt. Of course there were those fundamentalists who thought Sharif was not fundamentalist enough, but none of them would have preferred the dog pet owning, whisky drinking, friend of the West, Pervez Musharaf over the Islamic leaders they already had.

I know you don’t have to explain every coup, but Pakistan can be explained by looking at their political culture. The military has long been one of the most trusted institutions and with most of their post independence existence being governed by the military, it’s just second nature to them.

Even in SL there was a coup attempt that I’m sure you know about that flopped because some guy talked too much after a drink or two(at least that was the rumour) I knew one gentleman from the police who was locked up for his part in the whole affair and it seemed like that group was some kind of Old Boys network of Thomians, Royalists and Trinitians. The Royal Thomian and the Bradby along with countless bottles of arrack I’m sure being the unifying factor!

Kidnappers have started targetting muslim businessmen as well, red cross workers killed, supposedly by the police, lodging houses in Pettah emptied of Tamils, the Vice Chancellor of the Esatern University who disappeared some time back now thought to have died in custody, big battles raging on the warfront with boh sides claiming victory….

Turkey’s forces maybe inspired by secularism, but they are also structured on a non-Brit model.

I’m not trying to prove the reasons for coups all over the world, but merely to point out why a coup will not happen here.

Jack, while an alleged figure of 70,000 deserters seem a lot from an Army of 140,000, that’s a misleading equation. If the figure for deserters is from the early ’80s to the present, you need to factor in the rest of the Armed Forces, and then equate the deserters against the total number of personnel who have served in the Armed Forces from the early ’80s to the present (currently serving, retired, discharged, KIA, MIA, and deserters).

Jey, since the IC’s reluctance to take the GoSL to task on ceasefire violations can hardly be termed “dumb”, as you put it, it has to be seen as design. And that comes out of the IC’s perception (aparent by its banning of the LTTE in thhe EU and other parts) that the Tigers are the aggressors and the chief engineers of the CFA’s failure. So I think it’s unlikely that the IC (represented by the UN and EU) is likely to try and reinstall the old CFA. It’s far more likely that they’ll push for a new one; which the southern populace will eventually accept with Mahinda’s guarantees of “honour”. If the LTTE asks the IC for guarantees, those will be suggested to be long-term EU peacekeepers on the ground. Noth sides will have to agree to this, of course, and they’ve both refused in the past.

The disarming of the LTTE splinter groups (Karuna and Pilliyan) will never happen unless the GoSL agrees to it wholeheartedly. And they will do that only once they are guaranteed of no further LTTE aggression in the newly captured/liberated areas. If not, the GoSL will pay lip service to the disarmament, refuse to do it themselves, saying it has no control over areas outside its control, and suggest that the peacekeepers and the LTTE taake care of the prob. Meantime, they continue to harbour these auxiliaries and fund, arm, and train them for as long as they wish.

True. I agree with a lot of Jacks initial comment.

There is a possibility of peace talks in the future. That will probably come about with the signing of another ceasefire. I am sure more people in the South will try to make it work next time but they have to first be brought into that mindset.

If the Tigers can’t or don’t want to retake the east by force then they will stand on the 2002 Ceasefire being implemented. That means that the govt will have to abandon all the gains it made in the east in order to pursue peace. It is unlikely that the govt will do this as it will loose support from the war mongering masses (JVP, JHU, SLFP supporters). The Tigers can now prove that the govt and SLA are the true aggressors as any fool can see that occupying territory militarily is a clear violation of any ceasefire. The Tigers operations so far have only been of a defensive nature and they have not captured any new territory like the govt has. Nevertheless the Tigers have asked the international community to show their (IC) clout by making the govt withdraw its forces from the east and to make it (govt) comply with the full 2002 Ceasefire Agreement, which is an internationally recognised document that recognises two states with frontlines. If at the behest of the Tigers the IC can’t make the SL govt comply with the 2002 ceasefire then the Tigers can then ask what guarantee the IC will be in any future negotiated settlements. Any future settlement can easily be broken by a newly elected hardline Sinhala government and the IC will stand by while genocide of Tamils and occupation of Tamil lands continue. This is the current reality the Tigers want to prove.

So far the IC has been toothless and is only charging Mahinda’s govt with human rights abuses rather than making the govt go back to the 2002 ceasefire lines. The IC is also failing to warn the govt not to follow the military path. Stopping a couple of million dollars worth of aid money to try and bring the Mahinda govt inline while providing 60 million in military aid is the stupidest move possible. Which dumb cluck thought of that idea I don’t know. That’s only going to adversely affect those hundreds of thousands of Tamils displaced by the current offensives in the east.

Anyway my opinion is that the Tigers will only begin their offensives when they are ready and when they feel that they have proved their point clearly.

My suggestion if there is a another ceasfire is that it has to be implemented and monitored on the ground at the frontlines by European forces from the UN. All paramilitaries working with the SL army must be disarmed. Even if we Tamils declare independence this needs to be done in order to create a true sense of normalcy for people to pursue their social and economic dreams throughout the whole of the island. Based on the appalling responses in the past by the international community to genocide and violations of agreements (Rwanda, Dafur), the LTTE can not be expected to disarm for atleast the next 50 years following a settlement. To allay any fears by neighbours the LTTE like Japan can be bound by an agreement to only engage in the defense of the Tamil homeland. The agreement with Sri Lanka can be that after 50 years the Tamils can hold a referendum to decide if they need the armed protection of the LTTE any more. This will all depend on how amicable future Sinhalese govts are to the Tamils and the level of international prtection availbale to the Tamils.

We can make it work people. Think positive!!!

True. I agree with a lot of this.

There is a possibility of peace talks in the future. That will probably come about with the signing of another ceasefire. I am sure more people in the South will try to make it work next time but they have to first be brought into that mindset.

If the Tigers can’t or don’t want to retake the east by force then they will stand on the 2002 Ceasefire being implemented. That means that the govt will have to abandon all the gains it made in the east in order to pursue peace. It is unlikely that the govt will do this as it will loose support from the war mongering masses (JVP, JHU, SLFP supporters). The Tigers can now prove that the govt and SLA are the true aggressors as any fool can see that occupying territory militarily is a clear violation of any ceasefire. The Tigers operations so far have only been of a defensive nature and they have not captured any new territory like the govt has. Nevertheless the Tigers have asked the international community to show their (IC) clout by making the govt withdraw its forces from the east and to make it (govt) comply with the full 2002 Ceasefire Agreement, which is an internationally recognised document that recognises two states with frontlines. If at the behest of the Tigers the IC can’t make the SL govt comply with the 2002 ceasefire then the Tigers can then ask what guarantee the IC will be in any future negotiated settlements. Any future settlement can easily be broken by a newly elected hardline Sinhala government and the IC will stand by while genocide of Tamils and occupation of Tamil lands continue. This is the current reality the Tigers want to prove.

So far the IC has been toothless and is only charging Mahinda’s govt with human rights abuses rather than making the govt go back to the 2002 ceasefire lines. The IC is also failing to warn the govt not to follow the military path. Stopping a couple of million dollars worth of aid money to try and bring the Mahinda govt inline while providing 60 million in military aid is the stupidest move possible. Which dumb cluck thought of that idea I don’t know. That’s only going to adversely affect those hundreds of thousands of Tamils displaced by the current offensives in the east.

Anyway my opinion is that the Tigers will only begin their offensives when they are ready and when they feel that they have proved their point clearly.

My suggestion if there is a another ceasfire is that it has to be implemented and monitored on the ground at the frontlines by European forces from the UN. All paramilitaries working with the SL army must be disarmed. Even if we Tamils declare independence this needs to be done in order to create a true sense of normalcy for people to pursue their social and economic dreams throughout the whole of the island. Based on the appalling responses in the past by the international community to genocide and violations of agreements (Rwanda, Dafur), the LTTE can not be expected to disarm for atleast the next 50 years following a settlement. To allay any fears by neighbours the LTTE like Japan can be bound by an agreement to only engage in the defense of the Tamil homeland. The agreement with Sri Lanka can be that after 50 years the Tamils can hold a referendum to decide if they need the armed protection of the LTTE any more. This will all depend on how amicable future Sinhalese govts are to the Tamils and the level of international prtection availbale to the Tamils.

We can make it work people. Think positive!!!

One had to work with variations of the existing political system. And one cannot equate the level of greed exhibited by the present leader and his coterie of confidants to that of previous leaders. This argument basically absolves all leaders of responsibility: I couldn’t help it: the system made me do it!