The J Curve
The recent LTTE attack on Galle was a little push, a little dare. They are daring Sri Lanka to close up and crack down, but the country has so far controlled its temper. The reports are that only two people were killed (condolences to their families), but the impact was much higher. The LTTE is a small terrorist group of about 10,000 cadres funded mostly by drug trafficking and smuggling (Cost of Conflict). They recruit children and in the 90s nearly half of their dead were under 18 (!). The Sri Lankan Army is literally 20 times bigger and much better trained and equipped. Casualities have sorta reached parity, but while the LTTE has lost 150% of its current strength (about 14,000), SLA has only lost about 7%. That is why any LTTE attack on the south is largely symbolic. Sri Lanka, however, is at a time of great instability and a few more nudges could push us in the wrong direction entirely.
The J-Curve
I’ve been following this debate between Bill Emmott (fmr Editor, Economist) and Fareed Zakaria on this book by Ian Bremmer. His book, The J Curve. As the book explains,
What is the J Curve? Imagine a graph on which the vertical axis measures stability and the horizontal axis measures political and economic openness to the outside world. Each nation whose level of stability and openness we want to measure appears as a data point in the graph. These data points, taken together, produce a J shape. Nations to the left of the dip in the J are less open; nations to the right are more open. Nations higher on the graph are more stable: those that are lower are less stable.
In general, the stability of countries on the left side of the J Curve depends on individual leaders – Stalin, Mao, Idi Amin. The stability of states on the right side of the curve depends on institutions – parliaments independent of the executive, judiciaries independent of both, nongovernmental organizations, labor unions, citizen’s groups. Movement from left to right along the J Curve demonstrates that a country that is stable because it is closed must go through a dangerous period of instability as it opens to the outside world. There are no shortcuts because authoritarian elites cannot be quickly replaced with institutions whose legitimacy is widely accepted.
That is to say, you can sacrifice a little freedom for security, but in the end you pay. If you look at the curve above, you’ll see that a closed society is actually a much faster path to immediate security. This, however, is only true in the same sense that I could punch my sister in the face to immediately get more food. In the long term I’ll have less to eat. However, sometimes you just want security right now. Sometimes, in fact, you need it.
Security Vacuum
When this war started Tamils did not receive security from their government. In the ’56, 58, 61, 65, 72, 73, 78, 83′ riots (please check my dates) police did not come out and protect Tamil homes and businesses as they did today in Galle. Tamils were taken from their homes and killed in the streets and they understandably felt a little insecure. Now, at that point people prolly felt like ‘Shit, I need security right now’. At that point the long, hard slog of producing a functioning democracy probably looked pretty disheartening. Indeed, it still does. What the LTTE and other militant movements offered was a ‘trust us, we’ll handle it’ transaction – freedom for security. Same thing with the JVP, Maoist China, etc. They take authority by the gun and promise security as soon as enough people are dead and the great leader is secure. It is faster, it is easier, and it is wrong. They are headed the wrong direction on the J Curve.
Preserving Instability
At the point in a country’s life where it has a choice (between dictation and institution) is, as mentioned, a very unstable one. The country is reaching for an open future, but it can’t keep its feet. In Sri Lanka you had the JVP pulling on one leg and the LTTE on the other, both trying to pull the country back into authoritarianism. Now, if the country can survive its instability then institutions and laws can govern it. However, that is a long ways away and not guaranteed, so the LTTE had a logic to wanting security, on their dictatorial terms, right then. The country was (and is) moving haltingly towards openness and the long-tail, but if the country gets really unstable then the nearer peak starts to look good. I know many middle-class people who want a strong-man to come and just fix things. I’m sure there are similar feelings among the Tamil community. For the LTTE to succeed they need the country to be unstable. They need not defeat Sri Lanka militarily, if they just poke and dare the nation enough it will snap of its own accord.
The strategy works. When the LTTE assassinated Lakshman Kadirgamar the checkpoints started coming back. When they left charred bodies on Dickman’s Road and shot Kethesh in its purge of Tamil dissidents, the checks intensified. When they tried to kill the Pakistani High Commissioner the roads started closing and parking became scarce. Of course, the A9 to Jaffna closed a long time ago. More than the roads, Tamil youth I know go home at 7 every night. They get questioned more at checkpoints, detained without cause, etc. These things may be immediately necessary, but they are still a move towards the wrong end of the curve. As the LTTE pushes the country towards authoritarianism, we move more and more onto their playing ground, where their existence makes the most sense. We move to a closed society, one so rigid that it breaks.
The Value of Peace Talks
When the Peace Talks began the A9 reopened, checkpoints disappeared and for a while life seemed normal. The benefits did not trickle down equally to the North and East, but there were benefits. It wasn’t, for example, as shit as now. In that atmosphere of stability, the country was beginning to move towards openness again. And openness, of course, is death to the LTTE. The LTTE are a Tamil organization, devoted to the Tamil language, Tamil culture, much to the detriment of the Sinhala and Muslim people who also share the land. They are calling for a racially defined state, which is not exactly open. Sri Lanka, other hand, is a trilingual democracy that just doesn’t have the mature institutions to deliver. However, with peace, we were moving in that direction. And we have moved very far. The 1983 riots were precipitated by the LTTE killing 13 soldiers. 13. This week they killed almost 100 and the streets were calm. Even after the provocative attack on Galle, rioting began but was controlled. By God it’s not perfect, but the country has moved in the right direction.
Peace Talks sap the LTTEs strength because they thrive on instability. When we move towards a stable and open country – where Tamils security and prosperity are protected – then they have less and less reason to exist. That is partly why they are now choosing to provoke Sri Lanka. That is why they are cutting off water to farmers, setting of car bombs in Colombo and sending suicide bombers to military camps. They want riots, they want death and, in short, they want things to get so shit that they’re relevant again. You can frame it as evil or weak, but it is also a strategic decision. Prabhakaran’s play is for a closed but secure society under his absolute command. For that he needs instability, and that is what he’ll sow.
The challenge for Sri Lanka is to move in the opposite direction, to open ourselves up even when it hurts. To cultivate and protect our Tamil and Muslim citizens and provide the hard and lasting stability that can build generations. It doesn’t mean an end to military action or self-defense. It just means fighting a modern counterinsurgency that secures the country in the long-term. We have to remember where we’re going, cause Prabhakaran sure as hell knows. Literally.
Great post!
Fingers crossed that SL will make it to the right side of the curve…
“and a few more nudges could push us in the wrong direction entirely”
So you think the SRI LANKAN Peace Talks is the right direction. What can you say to prove your point? From War, we have defended our land (jaffna). It’s true that we have not manage to defeat them totally.
List down what we have achieved since we started peace talks and stop attacking them? Drawing FDL lines. Do you think it is an achievement of peace talks?
What is wrong with the war IF IT IS AIMED AT KILLING PRABHAKARAN AND THE LTTE LEADERS?
I know you are a Sinhalese and comes from a good family. I am not a JVP/JHU guy as you might think. I would like to understand what I am missing.
“When the Peace Talks began the A9 reopened, checkpoints disappeared and for a while life seemed normal. The benefits did not trickle down equally to the North and East, but there were benefits. It wasn’t, for example, as shit as now. In that atmosphere of stability, the country was beginning to move towards openness again.”
How come you forgot how many people were assasinated, how many got killed during this period. Though it looks like a period of comfort for you, the reality was, they were taking us around the world while collecting the money for the Ealam 4. How come you missed to add these points.
Didn’t they kill people like Mr. Kadiragamer during peace talks?
The only point I agree is, the stupidity of Riots. During 1983, even Mahinda was part of it. JVP lead it. It was stupid and a block dot in our history that will always follow us in years to come.
(with severe restraint) I would also like to tell you what you are missing but I promised Ghostwriter I wouldn’t.
I won’t belabour the point, but you might want to read the post again. The LTTE thrives on instability. Peace and stability weakens the LTTE. Why do you think they are blatantly trying to provoke war now? They’re depending on the predictable Sinhala reaction, and many people are playing right into their hands.
“The LTTE thrives on instability. Peace and stability weakens the LTTE”.
What you have said above is the obvious and no one can disagree. But why and how it weakens?
One has to go to the next level and see why LTTE does not wants to settle for a power sharing deal now and then later on go for the next step of Tamil Ealam.
If think of that, then you should be able to see the real reason. It is Prabhakaran. Can he come out and lead the areas that he control? If the leader is the most wanted guy, how can they going to govern the areas that they are getting to control?
All other reasons, arguments and theories put forward for or against OR war or peace issues are centred on this simple factor. Prabhakaran.
I would stand on what you said above and fully support a power sharing deal if this guy is not in the picture. It is impossible to talk about anything with out addressing the legal status of Prabhakaran.
We can talk for months and even come closer to cutting a deal.. but, if that deal makes another person to become as the leader of the LTTE control areas, then the whole process will skip back to where it was. That is what exactly happened/ing.
Prabhakaran does not want the solutions proposed and agreed upon by Anton and Ranil. He knows the fact that he can only survive if and only if he has a separate state to control with full powers. Including a separate legal army.
So, my point is, we must fight this war with the aim of facilitating future peace talks and a peaceful solution. We should aim it at Prabhkaran. That will give a whole new meaning to this issue. I know it is too hard for any peace loving guy to accept this point.
Maybe you should take Sophist’s advice.
We are, for once, steadily moving towards diplomacy. Retaliatory strikes instead of all out war, willingness to turn to talks; I am pleased to say that SL has surprised me in its attitude. Less childish than it used to be.
Bravo. Good post. The Tamil Tigers want to strengthen their negotiating position prior to the talks at the end of the month, hence the demonstration of their military ability and reach.
P.S. This J curve should not be confused with the J curve in economics. http://www.tutor2u.net/economics/content/topics/exchangerates/j_curve.htm
The Galle attack was a triple blow. It hit the tourist industry just prior to the start of the season, resulting in the potential of en masse cancellations. It nearly stirred up racial violence in the deep south where all the cunts live (I come from Matara so I’m entitled to say things like that). And it also strengtherns, like Ravana said, the bargaing power of the LTTE.
Janapathi there is no way that ‘war’ can stop these attacks. Their consequences are more far reaching than many would imagine. So be careful about what you’re advocating.
In fact the blow to the tourist industry and the stirring up of racial violence can also be seen as a strengthening of the LTTE’s negotiating position.
“Janapathi there is no way that ‘war’ can stop these attacks. ”
Correct..
There is no way that peace talks can stop these attacks either until we target Prabhakaran head on.
All our politicians and Prabhakaran together are fooling both us and Tamil community by going for these peace talks. Both sides do not want to end this conflict. What I am saying is, if by chance one say that we want to end this conflict, then the only way forward is to re-start the way and march towards where Prabhakaran believes to be staying or bomb that area to the ground. Then immediately go for a power sharing deal with TNA and CWC.
That will work.
The only other way that I really think will end this bloody war is, TIME. I do not think Prabhakaran can live like this for another 10 yrs. I also do not think an end to this during next 10 yrs.
My bet is on TIME.
TIME???? We’ve been at it for 25+ years, and you want more time? Maybe you’ve got time, but the poor buggers dying for your time don’t. Prabahkaran’s death or replacement won’t change anything, just as the removal or death of Stalin, Mao, Kim snr, Saddam Hussein, Yasser Arfat and so many others made no difference. The reason we are in this pickle is because of short-term policies by the politicaians of the last generation, who played for time.
“Both sides do not want to end this conflict”
Blaming the failure to win the war on a lack of desire to do so, is the most illogical thing I’ve ever heard. It’s also symbolic of the Sinhalese arrogance, that they won’t accept failure as that. No, it must be some plot or conspiracy. “We’re not idiots, we just choose to be idiotic”.
Why the Hell would anyone want perpetual war? And don’t drag out the hackneyed cliche that politicians profit from war — they do, but there are more profitable ways to make a sly buck. Ask JR, Roonie de Mel, Gamini Dissanayake, and all the others who engineered the hydrocachment projects. And do you honestly believe that the LTTE wants to remain in perpetuity a labeled terrorist organisation. Of course not. They want to be the legit govt of Eelam. And they can’t do that til the war ends.
“if by chance one say that we want to end this conflict, then the only way forward is to re-start the way and march towards where Prabhakaran believes to be staying or bomb that area to the ground”
We’ve tried, and couldn’t do it. I doubt we can succeed in the future.
“Prabahkaran’s death or replacement won’t change anything, just as the removal or death of Stalin, Mao, Kim snr, Saddam Hussein, Yasser Arfat and so many others made no difference.”
Two points..
1. you can not compare Prabhakaran to above guys..
2. removing above guys has/had changed the way the world address the problem.
I agree, removing Prabhakaran will not sort out the core issues laed to the problem. But it will give us a chance to sit and talk on a solution or a power sharing deal.
Take it or leave it, it is too late for Prabhakaran to accept a peceful solution unless India and Sri Lanka comeout and say, ok..we understand why you killed Rajiv, why you bombed Central Bank etc and you are fully forgiven under an Executive Presidential order. You and I both know it is not going to happen.
If anyone wants peace, that will be surely after the news of Prabhakaran dying from a Heart Attack.
No matter what you and I write here, it is impossible to talk about a power sharing deal without the backing of the 2/3 vote of Sri Lankans. We just witnessed the legal status of the so called President to President indo lanka pact. Also the status of the PTOM. It is impossible for Tamils to have a seperate land in Sri Lanka. It will NEVER happen no matter how long they fight this war.
If they want some control, it can be done only by way of providing more power through our Parlimentary system. But for that, Prabhakaran should come to our Parliment.
But one day, he will have to visit us here in Colombo to the Apallo Hospital for sure. Atleast that will give some justice for my cousin who died from the Dehiwala bomb blast and will give some satisfaction to his very young family. I am waiting till that day come.
“1. you can not compare Prabhakaran to above guys..”
In some ways you can, in some ways you can’t. But if you want to talk about removal of a particular individual being useful, you better back up those statements with real examples. If not it dissolves into the realm of personal fantasy.
“2. removing above guys has/had changed the way the world address the problem”
Possibly. But it hasn’t solved the problem. And if you are going to wait 10+ years til Prabha has passed away naturally before you even begin to address the problem, then that’s blatant irresponsibility. It will also mean the deaths of many more people in the same way as your friend from Dehiwela. And your willingness to sit back and wait will be a direct contribution to those deaths. Are you willing to tell many more young families that their fathers/mothers/brothers/sisters had to die because the best option you could come up with is to sit back and wait for Prabha to die?
“I agree, removing Prabhakaran will not sort out the core issues laed to the problem. But it will give us a chance to sit and talk on a solution or a power sharing deal.”
What will change with Prabha’s death? Prabha’s death will change nothing. The only difference will be that you will have a dozen Balasinghams, Thamilselvams, & Karunas to talk to. Look at Iraq as an example of how removing a despotic (but stable) leader brought on bigger problems. You don’t have to wait til Prabha’s death to talk about a solution or a power-sharing deal; in fact, if it had been done in the ’70s & early ’80s, we wouldn’t have a Prabha in our back garden. We’ve wasted enough time by being stubborn & unimaginative. Let’s not doom another generation (my kids), because we can’t get our collective finger out.
“Take it or leave it, it is too late for Prabhakaran to accept a peceful solution unless India and Sri Lanka comeout and say, ok..we understand why you killed…” etc.
Totally incorrect. Govts are very pragmatic in these things. They are not driven by revenge or passion (unlike you), just by gains and losses. So many international criminals have gone scot free in order to preserve stability (Idi Amin, Ghadaffi, Pol Pot, etc). India & SL will ignore Prabha’s crimes if they can gain in other ways. Remember how the UNP govt refused to proscribe the LTTE even when they had been labelled as terrorists by the USA? Why — because the UNP likes the LTTE? No, because they found it useful. Why is South Korea willing to engage North Korea when the US & Japan won’t? Because they find it useful.
“You and I both know it is not going to happen”
You may have convinced yourself of it, but you are doing an extremely bad job of selling it to anyone else.
“It is impossible for Tamils to have a seperate land in Sri Lanka. It will NEVER happen no matter how long they fight this war.”
First of all, it’s not impossible. Once sufficient Sinhalese die to make the population wake up, they’ll be open to change. This is what spurred the CFA — prohibitive loss. Second, no one is saying a separate state is the only way to solve Tamil aspiration — not even the LTTE. There are so many federal models (which we should be discussing right now) that will suffice. The PTOMS were the first step in a long road, the end of which might very well see a Tamil state/province minus Prabha. But we can’t wait til he’s dead to start that journey.
It’s the inability of people like you, Janapathi & Snut, to see multi-pronged routes to a solution that is so exasperating. WHY must it be ‘this’ or ‘that’, why must it be ‘first this’ and ‘then that’, why must it be ‘all’ or ‘nothing’. Many routes and paths can be followed simultaneously. Compromise is essential. Nothing, not even a successful war, can be prosecuted without compromises.
“If they want some control, it can be done only by way of providing more power through our Parlimentary system”
Fine, but our parliamentary system cannot handle for instance a federal model right now. Therefore, the system has to change to suit the requirements.
“But for that, Prabhakaran should come to our Parliment”
Why? He’s in control of a large area of Sri Lankan sovereign territory, destabilizing the economy, ruling a large portion of the population — who needs to come to whom? Are we happy with the status quo? Is this the country we (and our kids) want to live in for theforeseeable future? Prabha will accept the status quo rather than return to a pre-’80s situation, because he has nothing to lose. We have everything to lose, and we need to make the effort to change the status quo, not sit on our backsides and wait til he dies.
“But one day, he will have to visit us here in Colombo to the Apallo Hospital for sure.”
Wouldn’t hold my breath on that, if I were you.
indi,
you are the classic example of how a little knowledge/education can be a dangerous thing…
the sri lanka you “live” in and “experience” is so far removed from reality… both from a “tamil perspective” and a “sinhala non-colombo perspective”
how can the tamils have any trust in a sinhala govt…?
any “agreement” reached will be throw out once the LTTE lay down arms… can’t you see that…
let’s review the history…
B-C pact
Duddly-C pact
soulbury constitution
SIRHN
P-TOMS
de-merger of the NorthEast…
plus the TOTAL lack of credibility or trust that ANY sri lankans have in the courts…
the goal of the GOSL has been and will always be to colonize the NE and make it 70% sinhala and 17% tamil like the rest of the country… thus diluting (politically) and assimilating the Tamil population…
oh, and your “list” of LTTE actions is fucked up… you’ve left off all the GOSL actions during that time…
1) you know that the water issue in the East is more complicated that “cutting off water to farmers”…
you know that the govt stopped the World Bank (or ADB i forget) funding for water for the tamil farmers in the LTTE controlled areas but went all out in helping the sinhala farmers?
and those poor sinhala farmers whose water was cut off are colonialist who the govt. settled there in the 50′s, 60′s and 70′s and displaced the tamil farmers to less fertile land…
2) also, keteesh loganathan was killed by the JVP for his internal criticism of the Peace Secretariat which he was about to resign from due to the 17 ACF aid workers execution… whoulda been a black eye for the govt so they killed him…
3) same with kadigamma (notice the spelling ;) )
4) also the paki ambassador was hit by RAW not the LTTE… even the pakis admit this…
your SL air force pilots are all pakis and the indian’s don’t like the foothold that pakistan is trying to get in SL…
5) can you point to the LTTE platform where they state that they want a “tamil only” state…???i’m not familar with that stated goal…
“2) also, keteesh loganathan was killed by the JVP for his internal criticism of the Peace Secretariat which he was about to resign from due to the 17 ACF aid workers execution… whoulda been a black eye for the govt so they killed him…
3) same with kadigamma (notice the spelling ;) )”
Kethesh and Lakshman both believed that they were targets of the LTTE. There is no evidence to say that it was committed by anyone other than the LTTE, and nobody else had sufficient motive either. If you think that life under the LTTE controlled areas is better for Sri Lankan Tamils than under the GoSL, you are mistaken.
how do you know that jehan?
i’ve lived/live there…
it is safer (other than for the Kfirs) and freer for tamils…
if the embargo, imposed by the GoSL was stopped and tamils were allowed to adminster themselves…
funding will flow from the diaspora and the international community and in 20 years the NE will surpass the South in living standards…
why don’t you respond to the points about the past agreements and tamils ability to have confidence in the Supreme court?
or to the other points…
as far as keethesh goes… it is known that he was about to leave and was internally critcal of the peace sectretaraiat… him going public with that woulda led to further marginalization of the Sri Lankan rogue state…
“can you point to the LTTE platform where they state that they want a “tamil only†state…???i’m not familar with that stated goal…”
Google for the word PTOM Sri Lanka LTTE .
did it
[For The Love of God Don't Put Such Long Hyperlinks In]
not sure which document you are refering to where the LTTE STATE THAT THEY WANT AN ETNICALLY PURE TAMIL ONLY STATE…
can you put the link…? if not shut the “f” up
You need a thingy called a “Brain” to understand what is in the PTOM agreement when you read it.
Different people see the same thing in different way. For example, After the Tsunami,
People, who got hurt, felt the pain
People who lost everything, felt innocent.
People who lost loved ones felt sorrow
Many Sri Lankans, try to help the way they can..
Some SriLankans.. try to give 100 and take back 1000 or grab a contract or the land
LTTE, find a way to sign the PTOM as the solution to help Tsunami victims in TAMIL areas. Yes, it was a racial demarcation.
People like you and the stupid bunch of politicians.. said.. PTOM is the way forward to help Tsunami victims..
I said PTOM is stupid.. and you said I am an extremist.
Our legal system said.. it is illegal..
You read and try to understand the verdict if you can..
or just try to calm down if you can not understand it.. one day when you will grow up.. hope so!
New York Times
Editorial
Monitoring a Little-Noticed War
Published: October 18, 2006
On Monday, 94 people died and 150 were injured when a truck loaded with explosives rammed into a military convoy in Sri Lanka. The government blames the Tamil Tiger guerrillas — the pioneers of the suicide bombing — for the attack. The rebels have not said anything.
For more than 20 years, the Tamil rebels have waged a brutal war of independence against the Sri Lankan government, which is dominated by ethnic Sinhalese. Their opponents in Colombo are no innocents, and have made little effort to protect Tamil civilians as they wage a brutal counterinsurgency. In April, government security forces stood by for two hours as mobs burned Tamil homes and shops, killing 14 people.
A Buddhist-led government battling a Hindu separatist group in a land with no oil draws little international interest — and no pressure on either side to end such horrors. Hoping to change that, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Louise Arbour, called last month for international human rights monitors to be sent to Sri Lanka. All countries with influence, starting with the United States and Japan, should push the Sri Lankan government to agree.
Colombo is eager for international aid and support in its fight against the Tamil Tigers. With U.N. rights monitors bearing witness, the government may feel pressure to rein in army and police abuses. Monitors could also bolster the country’s weak judicial system, which barely investigates crimes against Tamil civilians. The guerrillas, who count the forced recruitment of child soldiers among their crimes, are less vulnerable to international shame. But shining a spotlight might help persuade overseas Tamils to choke off funding.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/18/opinion/18wed4.html?ex=1161835200&en=48be6a63c461d0e3&ei=5070&emc=eta1
man! what a litany of all the latest buzz words; j curve, long tail, …and slate (thus ultimately meta) articles. :-)
lets cuts through such broad and quite useless generalities and empty theory ( one just have to compare india and china to see what is wrong with the j curve theory and one must forget about singapore, malaysia, etc. and how they seem to exist on both sides of the curve at once ), as well as forced comparison about security and our position on the alleged curve , and focus on sri lankan specifics.
you are right peace talks (and omo other forms of stalemate) does sap ltte’s strength, as long as they do not get anything significant. in fact as i have said before ideally we should have peacetalks that go nowhere. that will weaken ltte to the extent that it will change by itself or we can really defeat it. only they will not go there willingly so we will have to force them to such talks by making them realize that they will not go anywhere by military means either, on the contrary such course will cost them what they already have in small portions.
in other words only way to defeat ltte is to force them to stalemate militarily and then ask them attend peace talks that will grant zero concessions to them as long as they remain what they are (they can talk ceasefire protocols, or if they have nothing to talk, do some shopping of non arms kind ). that is in fact more or less government’s position and will be the only feasible position whatever the government.
this mean we will have intermittent periods of war( and bombs and attacks as well as occasional military operations) and peace for long time yet, but will win the end as ltte gets progressively weaker. get used to it, if you haven’t already.
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those who think concessions should be made to terrorists posing as sole representatives of tamils instead of democratically elected tamils representatives, should have to be content with dreams bc appeasement of authoritarians doesn’t work in practice, in the same same way that all out war at this moment will not work.
ravana
The Tamil Tigers want to strengthen their negotiating position prior to the talks at the end of the month, hence the demonstration of their military ability and reach.
was anybody in doubt before that they are capable of attacks ? may be you believe military propaganda, though i don’t think even they made that claim
they know as well as everyone (except the peaceniks) these peace talks will go nowhere. this was a desperate attempt to create a backlash and drum up support for war in case of one materializing (tough luck with that). nor will expected attacks on civilians change anything. they have still not given up the present the military attempt, they need more convincing that they will not get anywhere militarily and better attend talks peacefully even though they will not get anything.
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sophist states the obvious. as everyone knows attacks hurt and when one attempts dozens some (esp suicide ones) will succeed partially or fully . that is what happens in war. does he prefer appeasement bc of that ?
still no answer to these questions – if you answer them and find a solution you could be up for a Nobel Peace Prize…:
how can the tamils have any trust in a sinhala govt…?
any “agreement†reached will be throw out once the LTTE lay down arms… can’t you see that…
let’s review the history…
B-C pact
Duddly-C pact
soulbury constitution
SIRHN
P-TOMS
de-merger of the NorthEast…
plus the TOTAL lack of credibility or trust that ANY sri lankans have in the courts…
the goal of the GOSL has been and will always be to colonize the NE and make it 70% sinhala and 17% tamil like the rest of the country… thus diluting (politically) and assimilating the Tamil population…
Continuous claims by your types that the current govt or any of the recently elected government is a ‘sinhala govt’ is faliure to accept reality.
The current government (and all recently elected govts) has had healthy muslim representation, additionally Mr.Thondaman has always found a way to crawl into government as long as i can remember. you have also conveniently chosen to leave out the ‘agreements’ the LTTE have violated in your ‘review of history’.
While it is fair to blame some Sinhala Leaders for the aggravation of the conflict and breach of trust it must also be said that most Tamil Politicians have been quite dumb in their handling of the conflict, not having made a whole hearted effort for integration with the political mainstream and there by penetrating the ruling entities as done by other ethnic minorities, in particular the muslims.
Your claim that there is a ‘goal’ of GOSL of to Colonize the NE is a load of bullshit.
Deane: “Your claim that there is a ‘goal’ of GOSL of to Colonize the NE is a load of bullshit.”
“All wars are fought for land…The plan for settlement of people in Yan Oya and Malwathu Oya basins was worked out before the communal riots of 1983. Indeed the keenest minds in the Mahaveli, some of whom are holding top international positions were the architects of this plan. My role was that of an executor… We conceived and implemented a plan which we thought would secure the territorial integrity of Sri Lanka for a long time. We moved a large group of 45,000 land hungry (Sinhala) peasants into the Batticaloa and Polonnaruwa districts of Maduru Oya delta. The second step was to make a similar human settlement in the Yan Oya basin. The third step was going to be a settlement of a number of people, opposed to Eelam, on the banks of the Malwathu Oya. By settling the (Sinhala) people in the Maduru Oya we were seeking to have in the Batticaloa zone a mass of persons opposed to a separate state…Yan Oya if settled by non separatists (Sinhala people) would have increased the population by about another 50,000. It would completely secure Trincomalee from the rebels…”
Sinhala Mahaveli Ministry Official, Herman Gunaratne in the Sri Lanka Sunday Times, 26th of August 1990
“…Tamils have objected to State co10nisation schemes which import large numbers of Sinhalese into traditional Tamil areas. The Tamil concern about Colonization is related to insecurity about theirphysical safety and to fears thatTamils will become a minority in their traditional homelands. The government maintains that since Sri Lanka is a single country citizens may freely move into any part of the country and that it is necessary to transplant some populations to more productive areas. The Tamils answer that they are not opposed to individual migration but only to large scale government colonisation schemes which change the ethnic composition of an area . . . The government should give renewed attention to Tamil concern over government sponsored colonisation schemes which bring large numbers of Sinhalese into Tamil areas and thus change the ethnic composition in such areas. This is particularly important in view of the insecurity of Tamils due to communal violence against them in areas where they live as a minority…”
Virginia Leary: Ethnic Conflict and Violence in Sri Lanka Report of a Mission to Sri Lanka on behalf of the International Commission of Jurists,luly/August 1981
“Witnesses also confirmed allegations made to us that whole villages have been emptied and neighbourhoods have been driven by the army from their homes and occupations and turned into refugees dependent on the government for dry rations… The human rights transgressed in such a course of action do not need to be detailed here… More important is that rightly or wrongly it tends to lend credibility to the view so frequently put to us that it is the Government’s objective either to drive the Tamils out of the north and east in sufficient numbers so as to reduce their majority in the north and in the east, a process that would be aided by the Covernment’s announced policy of settling armed Sinhalese people in former Tamil areas… or to drive the Tamils out altogether. We cannot make a judgement on this issue. We can say, without doubt, that the Government is driving Tamils from their homes and does intend to settle Sinhalese people in these areas. This, at least, lends support to the more extreme version believed by most Tamils.”
Robert Kilroy Silk, M.P. and Roger Sims, M.P United Kingdom Parliamentary Human Rights Group Report, February 1985
and there’s more evidence out there… check the national archives…
where do you get the evidence that it’s “bullshit”… fucking dickhead
im sorry. which year this?
that’s your answer… you gotta do better than that loser…
evidence…! where’s your’s?
and this is just evidence that is “out” there… imagine what is in the personnal files and minds of those leaders and the current ones…
histroy is prologue…
we will not allow history to repeat…
u think bunch of statements by some unknown ppl count as evidence? where did u get that off, eelam web? i wont refute the claim that that there were some relocation of ppl during the mahaveli project. i wasnt around then, but i dont think the aim was ‘diluting’ the tamils, just giving them a place to live.
but can u come back to this millennium and point out ‘evidence’ of ur continuous colonization claims?
u know, u buggers and JVP/JHU types are not that different. if they don’t agree to ur extremism u label ppl as traitors… no wonder LTTE never hit out at a single Jeppa. u guys are all one big happy family.
also,
with regard to this comment:
“… most Tamil Politicians have been quite dumb in their handling of the conflict, not having made a whole hearted effort for integration with the political mainstream and there by penetrating the ruling entities as done by other ethnic minorities, in particular the muslims.”
i agree that the tamil politicians have “been quite dumb”. i would go further and say that they “sold out” and took the scraps that the govts at the time gave them… that is why the LTTE came about… the TULF in ’77 ran on a separation platform then pussed out when it was validated… not the LTTE…
the polititians of old and of new (douglas et al) and the “colombo 7 tamil elite” sold out every generation… they got “theirs” and didn’t care about those in the northeast… thus the LTTE… they never sell out… they’ve stuck by their principles (whether you agreed with them or not you know where they stand)…
“Was anybody in doubt before that they are capable of attacks?”
No.
Was anybody in doubt before that they are capable of MULTIPLE SUCCESSFUL HARDHITTING attacks that will hurt WITHIN A SHORT SPACE OF TIME? Was anybody in doubt that our armed forces were just as vulnerable as they have always been? Was anybody in doubt that a military solution was impossible?
Hell yes.
i see you are repeating what you said in the previous thread again. care to answer all the points i raised in more comprehensive reply there, including why you made what imo was a racist remark when you equated sinhalese with few wannabe rioters ?
that terrorists are capable of planting bombs and attacks against soft targets in south at will is a given fact . they tried almost every other day for the last few months. most were foiled; two this week succeeded (one fully causing great damage, other succeeding only partially causing comparatively small amount of damage ) and yes they are meant to hurt. nobody but naive peaceniks should be surprised. more such will succeed inevitably and more will be foiled..
iow ltte was always capable of ‘multiple hardhitting attacks in short space of time’ ( even in lower case letters) and some will succeed. will that change gosl’s stand ? no.
what will really weaken gosl is a major military reversal( loss off a major camp , jafna, trinco ) in actual fighting, nothing else. and since military is not embarking on major offensives and defend well entrenched positions they are unlikely to suffer that. ltte is heading for a stalemate that will sap their strength as explained above and they know that. so they will get more desperate as they go there.
armed forces are always vulnerable they take the burnt for us. as for military solutions and the rest did gosl say it is going for miltary solution before and suddenly change bc of this ? no.
however you are running from your original contention. how did gosl’ negotiation position weaken and ltte’s strengthen bc of attacks ? explain
Snut – Do you ever feel misunderstood? Do you ever feel like people don’t get what you’re trying to say?
Try punctuation. It works. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punctuation
I can see a cock-tail party of all tiger bootlickers here. Celebrating the Galle victory.
Do stay for the Orgy Party. It’s on NGO money
have you heard about the colombo 7 “key parties”… i haven’t been to or heard about the NGO orgy parties… but knowing indi i’d imagine they come outta his ass…
by the way… how old’s your girlfriend… is she “legal”?
indi, ravana, sophist, david…
while i don’t believe everything you all write…
IF the average sinhala (i know you’re a burgher david) was ANYTHING like you all…
there would be no LTTE
there would be no war
we would all live in peace and harmony and this beautiful island would achieve it’s true potential…
rather than focusing on the LTTE as being the problem… why don’t you all “fix” your own people…
the LTTE are the symptom
the alleged “child soldiers” are a symptom
the “terroist attacks” are a symptom
the problem is the sinhalas have discrimnated and attempted to destroy the tamils…
answer this question boys:
any “agreement†reached will be throw out once the LTTE lay down arms… can’t you see that…
let’s review the history…
B-C pact
Duddly-C pact
soulbury constitution
SIRHN
P-TOMS
de-merger of the NorthEast…
plus the TOTAL lack of credibility or trust that ANY sri lankans have in the courts…
the goal of the GOSL has been and will always be to colonize the NE and make it 70% sinhala and 17% tamil like the rest of the country… thus diluting (politically) and assimilating the Tamil population…
and we stood up and would take it in the ass like
Who said the LTTE should be asked to lay down arms before a final political solution is reached? In my opinion, asking the LTTE to do so is pointless at the present time, because they will not do so, and I cannot envision how circumstances will change significantly enough for them to want to do so. There is no solution apart from a federal one, and once a federal solution is implemented, the LTTE’s cadres will have to be incorporated into a regional police force.
However, the federal government must be able to intervene if democratic elections are not being held regularly in a satisfactory manner. The threat of the resumption of hostilities will be an incentive to the LTTE to ensure the participation of other political groups. By that time, they will have more to lose than they do now.
The above scenario is pure conjecture, but it will be interesting to pick the holes in it. The solution has to be a federal one. What type is the question.
but how will you ensure that the next sinhala govt won’t renege and change the constitution again as they have in the past?
also, the LTTE would have to be given the NE for at least 5-10 years… and then come for elections… they would have earned the right to govern and implement their vision without having the pressure of IMMEDIATE elections…
Well, one way to ensure that the next govt (Sinhlese or whatever) doesn’t renege is to have constitutional steps that will prevent it. This IS possible (maybe one of you lawyers can spell it out). Another factor is that there is NOT going to be a laying down of LTTE arms (however hard Snut demands it) whatever the outcome. The Provisional IRA has still not laid down their arms. In fact, I would go so far as to say that in a federal set up the LTTE would be incorporated into Tamil-speaking regiments (like the French Canadian regiments in Canada, the Scottish and Irish regiments in the UK). Therefore a future federal GoSL that attempts to renege on earlier legislation will be faced with civil war.
The point that the Tamils cannot trust the GoSL without LTTE protection is a long-standing Tiger slogan, that circumvents the fact that no one is demanding they lay down arms prior to talks (except Snut). The GoSL has showed its perfectly willing to talk and fight at the same time. So are the Tigers. Fine, get on with it.
Well David, a constitution is only as good as the people who administer it. Ultimately, the interpretation of the constitution is the prerogative of the Supreme Court. Federal constitutions are heavily dependent for their success, on Supreme Courts that foster the spirit of federalism and are careful to balance out the center-region tensions. A big cause for concern among Tamils is the impartiality of the Apex Courts and their commitment to preserving minority rights. The answer to this is for the constitution to mandate some sort of ethic/regional quota system on the court. I think Canada has something like this(not sure whether it’s constitutional, it may be just a convention) whereby at least three members of the SC are Quebecois and the CJ is lways a Quebecois. Alternatively, you could have a constitutional court, such as in South Africa, that will be truly representative of all races and religions. In any case, the point is that the people must have a sense that when they petition the court, they will have a fair hearing, which is more than what could be said about the status quo.
Of course. Didn’t mean that the status quo was satisfactory, just that there are legal and constitutional ways of ensuring security for the Tamils and for a federal model. Security needn’t depend SOLELY on LTTE arms. Those steps do have to be taken first, though. If not, there would be no guarantee that even an independent Eelam would not be invaded and resecured at some future date by a new govt.
The problem is that I don’t even trust the Supreme Court. I trust that it can grow, but for immediate justice I would be safer on the other end of the tail, calling a local strong-man that I know. I don’t know how to tell the Tamil community that they may have to wait for us to get our shit together, but that’s what it is.
In Canada (and this suprised me) 3 of the seats are reserved for Quebec, and the rest conventionally distributed regionally. In Sri Lanka at least the Chief Justice seat is reserved for whoever is currently cupping the President’s balls, and a few seats for whoever’s polishing their ass.
In Canada however, the seperatist movement wasn’t violent and they got language concessions and a Quebecois PM for 40 out of 50 years. They even had two referendums on seperation. The problem is that violence has made it hard to make the correct compromises without people freaking out about ‘terrorism bad’. Of course the LTTE sucks, but we still have concessions to make to the Tamil people. The question is whether they can deal with immediate instability (and injustice) for a long-term solution, or whether they want immediate (and facist) justice from the LTTE.
indi’s assumption that tamils expect ltte to win them justice is what is wrong with his and peaceniks’s attitude . it is no better than their acceptance of ltte’s sole representative status. it is in fact as unjust and racist attitude to tamils as the most blatant sinhala chauvinist racism.
with unquestioning one sided reading of history (for example see the reference to race riots in the post which were not exactly sinhalese killing tamils) and total ignorance and ignoring of other facts ( why did ltte emerge on top beating other better funded, better manned, militant groups? and why is there no militancy with indian tamils or other minorities who were subject to much more injustice than ne tamils and same riots? is it bc they were uncompromising from the first and wanted all or war ? ) they unsurprisingly end up with such attitude.
but then ppl who fight war according to nyt tactics and believe in smooth curves to explain human nature do not much matter except as propaganda.
Yes, Snut, the LTTE sucks. Thanks for your insight and valuable contribution.
ravana
federal solution with ltte?
iow you are advocating appeasement of ltte. naively believing that armed ltte will change and live peacefully once given some federal power to oppress even more millions of ppl. can you point to one instance in history of appeasement succeeding in bringing peace ?
fact is as long as ltte is there in its present form there will not be peace. and there is lttle chance it will change on its own. we have to force it and since we are at present incapable of doing that militarily, we have to play for time by forcing a stalemate ( we can do that militarily ) and making them realize they won’t gain anything as long as they remain armed. this is going to last a long time. there are no other pragmatic options.
federal solutions wll work if there are democratic representatives of ne tamils, there aren’t any at present and as long as ltte is powerful. as i said this will take a long time.
terrorist apologist aiyo says
LTTE would have to be given the NE for at least 5-10 years… and then come for elections
:-) so much for the popularity of sole representative. huh ?
but ravana and peaceniks want gosl to give power to them. and they think that is morally correct too!!!! ( and indi thinks that is pragmatic !!! ). i will ask some kids know to send their letters to santa through them bc these ppl see him every day.
Your proposed strategy of following a prolonged stalemate objective is definitely an option open to the government and it is one that governments have followed in the past. But where has it got us? A dependent economy characterised by high unemeployment, high inflation and relatively low growth; reduced personal freedoms; a violent society; loss of international standing; a severe brain drain; regularly loss of life and fear of death. Following your proposed stalemate solution is viable so long as you are okay with living with the above effects of a stalemate solution.
I for one, would prefer to attempt a federal solution. I am not happy with status quo.
I understand that Sitting Nut and many Sri Lankan don’t agree with me personally, but they have yet to offer any theoretical or factual framework to explain what’s going on. People do support the LTTE and defeating them means understanding why rather than simply repeating ‘LTTE bad’. I get it, the LTTE sucks. Why do people support them? What do we do about it?
I’m guessing that Sitting Nut’s answer is that people don’t support the LTTE, we simply need to defeat them militarily and free the Tamil in the North and East. I’m sure they’ll greet us with flowers.
I wish I had the time.
Snut – you make assumptions about our arguments which are unfair. The LTTE will not, and should not be expected to lay down their arms before a final political solution (or even after). Similarly the GOSL should not be expected to stop retaliating to provoked attacks. That is quid pro quo.
The problem with your suggestion Snut is that even if (and this is improbable to the point of impossible), the LTTE are defeated militarily to a point of non – existence, this exclusionist political environment will no doubt facilitate the risising of another militant Tamil group several years down the line. Military victory will be panadol for the headache. But we need to exercise, eat right and drink less to avoid a repeat of the illness that gave rise to the headache.
My (our) contention is that the ELECTED govt of SRI LANKA, needs to make the right overtures to include a group that legitimately feels disenfranchised from the larger whole of the country. We have always maintained that this feeling of oppression is valid, and legitimate. However, the LTTE is illegitimate and criminal. Of that there is no argument. The issue being that if your body is sick, you don’t know until it manifests itself in some sort of symptom – eg – the aforesaid headache, i.e. – the LTTE.
The LTTE claims to be the sole rep. Let us ‘assume’ for a second that they are. Can we then be faulted for allowing them to represent the Tamil people in governance. Give them non-violent administration of a complex people and they will fall by the wayside. In order to take away credibility from the LTTE, we must show them up. And sometimes the only way to show someone up as a fraud is to give him something he can’t handle, but tells the world he can.
Aiyo – I have read Herman Gunaratne’s book and I acknowledge that there were some insidious attempts to colonise the Mahaweli belt. However, HG is a bit of a crank and I would take much of what he says with a pinch of salt. JR foresaw a problem and wanted to nip it in the bud. He didn’t succeed and due to his folly, the migrants or border village dwellers are now massacred by both sides. The attempt was made. None of us are saying that this vast imposition of sinhalese into conditions and areas alien to them was right. But ithappened. We have to get on with it, and find a solution without apportioning blame.
I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but a lot of our posts here, and other blogs, are dedicated to ‘fixing’ our people. I hope you also admit that we are not the ONLY people that need a bit of fixing in their ideas. Just like all Tamils are not gun toting explosive laden tiger striped killers, not all sinhalese are stubborn, majoritarian, resentful racist cunts. Really.
Snut – the reason I am not addrssing your arguments on the Navy Under Attack post is because I don’t have the time or the inclination to do so, and really don’t think it’s worth it. Your style of assuming much more than your virtual adversary actually states is tiresome to counterract. It makes me feel like I’m talking to child. Or, that I’m banging my head against a brick wall, or something even thicker, like a skull.
I think I have made my point clear on the Navy Under Attack post, despite your attempt (feeble in my opinon) to counterract it. I’ll leave it for the gallery to decide who has a stronger argument.
I will, however, address one irrelevant accusation you levelled at me (since attacking the man and not the argument seems to be your forte),
I said:
“it reminds us that the security of Tamil civilians can still be threatened by the Sinhalese (although admittedly, in a limited way)”
You said:
That is their intent as i said but history of 20+ years prove otherwise. inevitable few idiots and criminals who try, will be controlled. ( btw to equate sinhalese with few looters trying profit from it, is as racist as some ppl’s equating of tamils with terrorists, curios how some ppl get way with that kind of racism. may be you equate all americans and british as racists when few attack muslims and sikhs(!) after terrorist incidents? ) . words are important here bc what remains is propaganda. that is why such propaganda should be debunked and exposed with facts whenever it appears, whether from ltte propaganda, peaceniks, naive idiots, or bbc.”
How is what I said in any way racist? I think you are merely interested in propapaganda for the GoSL.
Snut, you might also reconsider interjecting every single paragraph of your posts with words like ‘peacenik’ & ‘ngot’. It gives the idea that you are merely here to push a single agenda, regardless of the topic. Is this your intention? If so, say so, and we’ll just skip what you have to say.
Precisely the tactic I was going to adopt, depending on his response.
I actually skim Snut’s comments rather than read them. Almost every single one of them states the point that the LTTE is bad and anyone not constantly repeating that is a sympathizer/peacenik/idiot. This is leavened with tens of mind-numbing rhetorical questions. It’s good message discipline I guess, but not very interesting reading. Whether people want to read them or not is up to them I guess, but my personal experience is that if you’ve read one you’ve read them all.
Hence the feeling that I was talking to child or banging my head against a brick wall. His writing style also leaves something to be desired… like capital letters and punctuation, for a start. I skim them because they are hard to read, rather than anything else.
“writing styles.. ”
it is an interesting subject isn’t it?
this comment is in reference to ravana and indi comments (and to much lessor degree to sophist and david blacker )
as usual these ppl are unable to answer the specific questions and points raised ( what exactly changed bc of attack? , when was appeasement ever successful? why did ltte end up on top? any proof for tamil support for ltte?…. ) resort to attacking me personally . typical.
i will continue to expose their hypocrisy, unreality/nativity, and unfounded assumptions they make. (probably not understanding they are making them given the limited ability for self examination displayed here )
racist assumptions they make
i consider ppl who make the assumption that ne tamils support ltte without a iota of proof as racist. this assumption is common to both warmongers and peaceniks. if anyone has any proof for such support please reveal them. any solution based on such false racist assumption is bound to fail. the assumption that tamils expect ltte to give them justice is also without foundation and racist. more on this later. it is also a good excuse for violent racist of all kinds.( ltte /tamils kill ‘sinhalese’/'muslims’ let us kill the tamils so we can have security! may be soon indi will justify those ppl too )
i also consider ppl who make the assumption that ‘sinhaelese’, instead of criminals and hard core racists, attack tamils after any terrorist incident, as racists. this as bad as the first one and show the person’s inability to take the facts of past 20+ years into account .( in fact several hundred fold more tamils got killed by ltte than in the south in every one of those years). any person who casually use the word ‘sinhalese’ in such situations as ravana does only show how deeply ingrained their racism is.
ltte is ‘bad ‘ is but justified
this is indi’s main contention. he however fails to put forward why ltte is justified beyond some vague historically inaccurate references to security( see his reference to riots) and his racist assumptions pointed out above . he fails to explain why if that is so other minorities ( esp indains tamils in sl) who suffered more injustice and riots and are more cohesive, did not resorts to militancy . nor does he explain why it is ltte that won the power struggle between the militant groups even though others were better manned and better funded. may be if he was aware of these fact he may then realize that this not so much a question of security as an uncompromising all or nothing attitude, and disdain for democracy shown by ltte and some early tamil leaders. in fact while indian tamils were able to use the so called unjust democracy to enfranchise millions of citizens ( much larger percentage of ppl than in most countries absorb) tamil leaders and then ltte were pursing an end that could only be achieved by injustice to most of ppl in ne.
according to indi’s reading of events while ‘sinhalese’ were ‘ethnic cleansing’ in the south (curiously resulting in ever higher percentage of minorities there) , ltte was ensuring ‘security’ in north (resulting in 99% ethnic homogeneity). if indi has his wish they should be allowed to do the same in east bc they are after all ensuring security.
ltte is ‘bad’ lets give them more power.
all these ppl while nominally saying ltte is ‘bad’ ,sucks, fascists, terrorist … also advocate appeasing them with federal power giving them control over millions more than they have at present. at the same time they do not insist on ltte giving up of any of their ‘bad’ means or attitudes ( they do not insist on decommissioning or giving up of sole representative status) . in fact they resent anyone questioning them on those points.
in other words they say ltte is ‘bad’ (always with quotation marks when they write) but recommend giving more power to them without any change on ltte part , bc according to them tamils support ltte , ‘sinhalese’ are ever ready riot and kill tamils , tamils are singled out among minorities for insecurity and injustice, ltte alone among tamils political group deserve to be taken in to account bc their success, whatever its underpinnings, ( and in sophists case it will show them up no matter at what the cost to ne ppl ) …
bully is ‘bad’ but lets give what he ask esp good sticks to beat us faster.
they also don’t mind what happens to the ppl in ne who have to suffer bc of ltte getting more power. those ppl are worthless they should have started a militancy of their own too, if they were suffering injustice, goes their logic.
they think i am making assumptions!
—
indi says
Why do people support them? What do we do about it.
I’m guessing that Sitting Nut’s answer is that people don’t support the LTTE, we simply need to defeat them militarily and free the Tamil in the North and East. I’m sure they’ll greet us with flowers
i have already given a different answer here about defeating ltte in this thread, i suppose the racist did not read it.
why do ppl support castro, kim jung ill, or stalin, or other such ? insecurity or fear getting killed for not supporting ?
and this is not iraq on the other side of the world ( not for me and most sri lankans, may be it is to indi) that we invaded . this is here. we are affected by it. our long term survival depend on this being a democratic country, not one with a part fascist dictatorship. it is typical that he confuses neo conservative reasons for invasion of iraq ( and receiving of flowers )with this. it show how removed from reality he is. to him it is the same.
ravana says
Your proposed strategy of following a prolonged stalemate objective is definitely an option open to the government and it is one that governments have followed in the past. But where has it got us? ……I am not happy with status quo
nobody is happy with the status quo. i too would prefer peace were to dawn magically. unfortunately if you live here you have to deal with reality. reality pragmatically examined do not allow much options for sl government whatever the color . it will eventually end up pursing the same stalemate strategy as i described. as in fact present one is pursing and past ones ended up with . that is the best that is available in reality. it is certainly better than handing over millions to ltte with no guarantee of peace as you recommend.
No guarantee of peace is better than a guarantee of no peace. No peace process in the world has ever had a guarantee of peace.
First of all, Snut, you constantly bandy the word ‘appeasement’ about. I have not seen anyone on ANY blog so far, say that we should ‘appease’ the LTTE. This is a conclusion you have reached through your own personal analysis of said posts. You have now convinced yourself of (and are attempting to pass off as fact) this ‘appeasement’ conclusion. You probably think that South Korea’s strategy towards North Korea is ‘appeasement’, whereas the South Koreans call it ‘engagement’. This latter term is probably what many bloggers (whom you term ‘appeasers’) would apply to their strategy. So if you honestly want to ‘engage’ us in this discussion, I suggest you drop the provocative and accusatory terminology in your posts. However, if you merely wish to ‘appease’ your own theory and those who agree with you (like Janapathi, in this case), just tell us. Maybe you see blogging as a pasttime in which to spout your rhetoric. Again, Please tell us. You often ask us to clarify our positions; how about some clarification from you on whether you really want to sse a solution to the ethnic/terrorist problem.
I didn’t read the whole response, but seems like the same old thing. At least the bold parts are patently incorrect. I’ve never said the LTTE is justified, I’m just intersted in understanding why they exist. I’ve also never said give them more power, I’ve said its the war that gives them power, hence peace talks good. Of course, anyone disagreeing with Snut is labeled a racist/LTTE sympathizer and he keeps writing the same comment, over and over again, addressing imaginary enemies.
Carry on, it’s just getting boring. I actually went back and read your comment. It’s the same exact points as every other comment. I honestly think I could write a computer script to produce Snut comments which are indistinguishable from the original. Pick a name, call them ‘racist’ or ‘appeaser’, talk about how the LTTE sucks, ask 15 random questions, shuffle in the words ‘freedom’ and ‘terrorism’, repeat.
I couldn’t make out where he started and stopped his sentences because he’s still not using capital letters. All the things in bold are false, though.
LTTE is all capital letters. Only terrorists use capital letters
Pick a name, call them ‘racist’ or ‘appeaser’, talk about how the LTTE sucks, ask 15 random questions, shuffle in the words ‘freedom’ and ‘terrorism’, repeat…….LTTE is all capital letters. Only terrorists use capital letters
:-) that says it all. about their inability to deal with reality.
questions they cannot answer are rhetorical and illegible, and should be ignored. only their point of view is valid. all others are bile filled fools who cannot write english.
but what is this? they can still read ?
they seem to have picked up one or two of the easiest and replied !!!! ( never mind they have said they we cannot read in the comment before or in the same comment! consistency is too much to ask from such ppl, they consider it repetition.)
questions and points they haven’t replied to were probably the one they ‘cannot ‘ read .
david blacker:
you constantly bandy the word ‘appeasement’ about. I have not seen anyone on ANY blog so far, say that we should ‘appease’ the LTTE
is it not advocating appeasement to accept(nominally or not) ltte as fascists, terrorists, and ‘bad’, and then advocate giving ltte what they want in order to have peace? well in my book it is. if you want to call that something else you are free to do so. that doesn’t change the facts . 1. these ppl accept ltte as ‘bad’. 2. they advocate giving ltte want they want.
those who agree with you (like Janapathi, in this case
it is curios you say that. i am not sure janapathi agrees with me, i don’t agree with him, but what is clear is that these others have adopted one of his racist positions. once when janapathi said tamils were terrorists these same ppl jumped on him and (rightly imo ) called him a racist . but here they have basically adopted the same position by saying tamils support ltte ( which these ppl accept as terrorists). why is that not racist? instead i am found fault with for calling them racists.
as i said consistency and logic are not their strong points.
indi says
I’ve never said the LTTE is justified, I’m just intersted in understanding why they exist.
he says he has found the reason why they exist and are supported (according to him ) by tamils. and he finds nothing wrong with the reason ( tamils were insecure ltte came to their protection and justice) or tamils’ supposed support for ltte. well i suppose he has avoided the word ‘justified’ if not its meaning.
I’ve also never said give them more power, I’ve said its the war that gives them power, hence peace talks good
hmmmm. is he advocating peace talks that go nowhere like i do? i don’t think so. when they mean peace talks they mean coming to some agreement about power sharing with ltte. may be that is not giving power to ltte?
now lets see what he did not handle.
he avoids the questions about other minorities not taking up militancy ( in spite of suffering greater insecurity and injustice, which according to him provides the justification, oh sorry ‘reason’, for ltte’s existence ) or about other tamil groups, he avoid the point about why some of the most appalling dictators were/are able to remain in power for no reason other than that of creating fear in those under them, . he ignores the all-or-nothing attitude that made ltte so powerful which quite adequately explain its success at oppression of ppl, while others like indian tamil politicos in sl, who were willing to compromise, were able win great political rewards meanwhile.
he in fact ignores and fail to address any of the opposing points against his borrowed theory. they are all bile and boring to him. :-)
ravana says:
No guarantee of peace is better than a guarantee of no peace. No peace process in the world has ever had a guarantee of peace.
yes no peace process ever had guarantee of peace but then no real peace process involved such things as sole representative status ( which is a guarantee of no democracy ) and acceptance of granting power without accountability, basically handing over ppl to ltte. that is of course appeasement and as i asked, care to give one example where it has ever been successful?
but then i suppose some will give up anything to have peace; justice, democracy, human rights, freedom, millions of ppl in ne, etc. they don’t have to live there. its a good thing most sri lankans are not like that.
i wont even repeat the questions i asked ravana which he ‘cannot’ read. :-)
“is it not advocating appeasement to accept(nominally or not) ltte as fascists, terrorists, and ‘bad’, and then advocate giving ltte what they want in order to have peace?”
Not necessarily, Snut. It can be an acceptance of reality. It can be a recognition that the achievement of peace is the supreme goal. It can be a wish to create a separate federal province or independent state as a homeland for Tamils. It maybe many other reasons. Some or all of these acts share a common goal with the LTTE’s stated goal. That does not mean that these others are in agreement with the LTTE or their methods. If giving the LTTE “what they want” is a byproduct of achieving a particular goal, should we forsake that goal because of the by product? Is defeat of the LTTE the great goal? Or is there a greater one than that?
“well in my book it is. if you want to call that something else you are free to do so. ”
Thank you, I will. But that’s not the point. My point is that you are attempting to read what is in your “book” out as fact. It’s not. It’s your opinion, your analysis — your “book” if you will.
“i am not sure janapathi agrees with me, i don’t agree with him”
Well, in this case you are both in agrrement, Snut, because you both advocate the policy of playing for time, or holding a lengthy stalemate, until affairs resolve themselves — on your part through a spontaneous loss of power by the LTTE, on Janapathi’s part through the death of Prabha. You & Janapathi may disagree in other matters, but that doesn’t really concern me in this debate.
That is, I think, the point. Defeating the LTTE is not the greatest goal. That goal is a peaceful and prosperous Sri Lanka, drawing strength from all our human resources. We can’t simply aspire to not have terrorism, we need to aspire to an open and stable society which is much much more than that.
One obvious falsehood – ’1. these ppl accept ltte as ‘bad’. 2. they advocate giving ltte want they want.’ I’ve never advocated giving the LTTE what they want. Find me a single instance.
As per the questions, why should anyone answer them? Nobody else posts loaded questions, they do their own reasoning. In your last 10 comments I counted 32 questions That’s an average of 3 questions per comment. As far as I can tell, that’s a full courseload and Snut is nobody’s teacher. He uses questions solely to sow doubt. They’re phrased in a combative way, not seeking knowledge. Snut is plenty good at saying what not to do and sneering at sources like the New York Times, BBC, Slate and Wikipedia and empty theory from – god forbid – books but not so good at debating anybody but straw men.
Snut’s heart is in the right place but all he offers are objectives, and no strategy. Strategy begins with understanding your enemy, but Snut refuses any discussion beyond condemnation. It’s like watching a George Bush press conference, he responds to every question with ‘Al Qaeda is bad, Saddam was bad and if you oppose me you’re supporting the terrorists’. Sweet bugger, but not very good at actually winning wars.
SNUT – The sole represntative status is no longer a stable claim. Karuna, for one, is another representative, albeit a corrupt one, but whether he emerges into a political force from his present military one, I admit, remains to be seen.
Secondly, the sole representative status, if valid would have made ngotiations arguably easier, because it is simpler for two parties to agree than three or more.
Sole representative status or not, it’s irrelevant to the assertion that a negotiated federal solution is the only solution to the ethnic problem in Sri Lanka.
Let me ask you something SNUT – if not for the existence of the LTTE, would you agree to a federal solution giving the Tamil Sri Lankans the right to govern themselves? I believe that LTTE or no LTTE, there should be a devolution of power. Policing for one, must be devolved. If there was no LTTE, do you agree that a federal solution is desirable?
Also, allowing democracy under a federal government in the North and / or East can be negotaited into a settlement. There can be checks and balances that can be worked into a framework which guarantee elections, and the participation of multiple parties. The federal government can be given the right to intervene, militarily, or otherwise, if regional democracy is threatened.
There are millions of ways to draft a federal solution.
Gentlemen, I believe the Northern Ireland problem was solved by so called “appeasement” of “terrorists”. Seems to have worked out quite well for them as well. Economically, and politically.
I thought I saw someone say give the LTTE what they want and then they’ll have a chance to prove themselves, but how could you knowingly hand power over to people who’ve committed so many atrocities? How will we know that they’ll deal with issues like handing power over to a democratically elected government responsibly once their caretaker period is over, and if some of them were to become elected afterwards will they behave responsibly?
As a Tamil, I don’t believe that most of us want the LTTE governing our people, but who will step up to govern the people of Eelam (if it ever comes about) when previously being a Tamil politician who disagreed with the LTTE meant a death sentence?
Eventually it all boils down to who we (Sri Lankans) feel we can trust. I for one do not believe the Tamils will trust the LTTE and undestand it is hard for the government to trust them as well. But how else can peace be achieved? One party has to be willing to make a gesture(sic?) of good faith in the other and the govt or the LTTE are probably not willing to do that as it will mean a loss of face for them if they were to do so. At least the govt have less to lose so they should acquiesce to some demands and then follow on from there? It would show that they are trying to approach a solution and possibly win them more support internationally and from their own people if it all goes tits up in the end.
CY, we don’t know if the Tigers will behave responsibly, or make the change to a democratic govt if granted power. Some might argue that the GoSL hasn’t behaved responsibly either. But we may very well have another Cuba or Vietnam where its a long running state dictatorship. However, I think it’s too late to worry what sort of govt the LTTE will be. If we (the GoSL) had concerned ourselves with that in the early ’80s, a lot could have been done. We have now painted ourselves into a corner where in an independent Eelam (or even a federal province), there is no one strong enough to oppose the Tigers.
If the Tamils don’t trust the LTTE, they can very well overthrow them in the same way that the LTTE attempted to overthrow the GoSL’s controls. With along land border between Eelam & SL, there’ll be ample opportunity for Karuna-types to continue their guerrilla war for freedom from the LTTE.
An independent Eelam will not be a vacuum, and I’m sure that a country so heavily dependent on foreign aid as it will be, can be steered towards a sembalance of democracy.
look who is repeating now! and they continue to run from the questions without answering them! bc questions sow doubt it seems! ( not as before bc they cannot read them) certainly not bc they cannot answer ! :-)
they say i paste labels. i do in fact call them racists, but i gave reasons for doing it from the first.
they say tamils support terrorists. that is a racist statement . some of them say sinhalese attack tamils after terrorist attacks . that is also a racist statement. those who make such statements seriously are racists. if they think those statements are not racist they can put forward their reasons. if they think they did not make them they can say that too, though the statements are there in black and white. instead of adopting either of those courses they find fault with me for pointing that out. some ppl are unable to deal with facts and reality. even when facts were created by their own statements.
next ( since, “Strategy begins with understanding your enemy”, as indi puts it ) they put forward the theory that tamils support ltte, and ltte continue to exist bc ltte provide tamils with security and justice. that if there is to be any solution that alleged cause need to be addressed. they claim that in relation to that “Snut refuses any discussion beyond condemnation”. in fact i raised several points and questions regrading the validity of that theory. most observable thing in all their comments is their deliberate avoidance of those points. instead of dealing with them they run from them by comparing my comments rather irrelevantly to those of american neo conservatives’ and president bush’s and commenting on my supposed aversion to ‘books’ and theories . they also keep on repeating i make no argument beyond saying ltte is bad.
well the points i raised about validity of their theory won’t go away and i will repeat them.
1. other minorities in sl suffered equally ( if not more- imo more) from same injustices and insecurities as tamils but they did not end up with a terrorist group. instead they were able to gain palpable (in fact spectacular compared to other countries ) political gains working through the same political system that this theory hold is so unjust to minorities that they had reason to support terrorism.
2. there were several militant groups at the beginning and some of them like telo were certainly better manned and better funded. if this was a mere question about security of tamils, how do one explain the present pathetic state of those groups deprived of leaders, cadres, and money, and ltte’s success. in other places with terrorism ( in palestine for example ) several groups co-exist with occasional minor clashes, but complete exterminations of others is unheard of. indi may not even be aware of what exactly happened to them given his usual disdain for facts.
3. isn’t both those differences be better explained by the fact that ltte and some early tamil leaders adopted an all-or-nothing attitude as opposed to other minority leaders and other militant groups willing to compromise as everyone on a democracy must?
4. then there is the fact of actual tamil movements, which flatly contradict this theory that says tamils were so insecure and unjustly treated that they sought ltte protection. anyone examining census data will know that percentage and actual number of tamils ( as well as other major minorities )steadily increased in seven ‘southern’ provinces since independence, and since the war has shot up faster. meanwhile non tamils in the north have become non existing while actual number of tamils there have drastically come down . if anything census still over counts (or over estimates since no counting is done there) ppl in those two provinces. emigration to other countries explains only part of that decline. most of them in fact are in the other ‘insecure for tamil’ seven provinces under the supposedly ‘unjust’ ‘sinhalease’ government. the place where, according to indi, tamils would be safe ( under the ltte ) has ever less number of tamils, in fact .
well they can ignore and avoid these points again and say i merely say ltte is bad and ask rhetorical questions, but truth is there to see. or they can say why these points are wrong and make objections, or perhaps even agree with them . its their choice .
david blacker
If giving the LTTE “what they want†is a byproduct of achieving a particular goal, should we forsake that goal because of the by product? Is defeat of the LTTE the great goal? Or is there a greater one than that?
now who is asking questions? :-) unlike me you do not answer them yourself.
to answer them, one have to take into account the cost of so called ‘by product’ of the ‘greater goal’ of ‘peace’ . if you think it is ‘ok’ to let an unreformed and armed ltte oppress millions of ppl under a fascist dictatorship across the border as cost of peace by all means say so. i think the cost is too high and amount to appeasement.
nor are we in such a bad shape as to be forced to accept it even if we do not like it ( as you seem to believe when you say it the ‘reality’ we may have to accept ) , even though we may not be in position to militarily defeat ltte in the short term. since it can, it is governments duty to prevent ltte’s rule from spreading and increasing in whatever way it can and adopt feasible methods to defeat the ltte in the long term (including playing for time through forced stalemate strategy i described).
( to clarify something, i have no objection whatever to federalism (or even separation if feasible) of north and east as long as they are ruled democratically and solution arrived at democratically. but that is unlikely as long as ltte exists)
anyway at least you put it into a question. one of my main objections to peaceniks is their inability to articulate this clearly ; that peace is worth the cost of handing over millions to ltte rule even though they admit ltte is bad. they always run from the responsibility of saying this even though their arguments leads to this. instead they fudge bc they know it is somehow morally ‘wrong’ and they want to appear ‘good’. hypocrisy anyone? that is why i always ask them;” do they agree to handover million to ltte in return for peace ?” . but they never answer and accuse me of rhetorical questions when it is the main matter at hand. will they answer at last here?
of course then there is the not so small matter of whether ‘peace’ would actually result from such a handover. appeasements in history has never worked.
btw northen ireland was not appeasement as somebody claimed, ira first made a commitment to disarm and then disarmed nor did they claim absolute power without accountability for a period or sole representative status, they in fact faced free elections. (their political party came in second even among catholic parties ). they also observed the ceasefire. none of these conditions exist in sl peace process. if they did it wouldn’t be appeasement.
indi says
We can’t simply aspire to not have terrorism, we need to aspire to an open and stable society which is much much more than that
of course who said anything against that? . but can we do that when ltte exists? i don’t think so, maybe indi does .
unfortunately world is not a ‘liberal’ ( in the american sense of the word) hollywood movie or even a smooth curve on a chart with clear cut choices. in reality there are and will be wrinkles and messy situations and trade offs. and some of them are actual monetary trade offs when it comes a resource poor country like ours. less we have them the better but they will always be there. war is messy esp. when fought with low tech. so called collateral damage do occur , wrong ppl sometimes do get arrested, harassed and killed, and terrorist do mount successful attacks. choices are vague and difficult , (do we bomb sampur for weeks with imprecise rockets in order capture it or do we risk jaffana getting blockaded from ltte controlled sampur? do we close a9 and prevent ltte from collecting ‘taxes’ even though it may mean shortages for residents of jaffana ? do we increase checkpoints and searches on the very small chance that a terrorist attack may be discovered even though it may mean harassment of tamils? ). they have to be made . they are not a simple choices between abstract concepts of open stability and closed stability. or even between providing justice to tamils or sacrificing that on behalf other sri lankans. to simplify everything to such clear choices will not help is understand what is going on .
malaysia and singapore probably lie off the j curve, forcing them into either side of the curve will not help us understand those countries. in reality specifics help, generalities and theories based on them generally don ‘t .
ravana asks
If there was no LTTE, do you agree that a federal solution is desirable?
if not for the existence of the LTTE, would you agree to a federal solution giving the Tamil Sri Lankans the right to govern themselves?
i personally agree to both. but what i believe as a private individual does not matter, this should only be decided through democratic means involving all sri lankans. with ltte in existence that is impossible at present.
The sole represntative status is no longer a stable claim
it was never a valid claim. for one thing it was against all principles of human rights, democracy and justice. for another there was always others, however powerless bc of fear of ltte.
the sole representative status, if valid would have made negotiations arguably easier, because it is simpler for two parties to agree than three or more.
that is also the problem. since claim has no validity result will also have no validity. this is what i refer to when i say ltte’s existence and success depends on its all or nothing attitude and intolerance of alternative views to get its way. gosl should not give into that even though it may be ‘easier’ at first sight. in fact if it is even remotely serious about coming to any actual agreement it should insist on other parties being part of the talks (however if it is merely playing for time or discussing ceasefire only, it may do as it wish since nothing will result ) . a democratically acceptable solution will only be arrived with negotiations with democratically elected representatives of tamils and other ppl in north and east. to repeat as long as ltte is there in its present form that is unlikely .
Also, allowing democracy under a federal government in the North and / or East can be negotaited into a settlement. There can be checks and balances that can be worked into a framework which guarantee elections, and the participation of multiple parties. The federal government can be given the right to intervene, militarily, or otherwise, if regional democracy is threatened.
the federal settlement must be democratically arrived at. not democracy after the settlement. otherwise in effect we will be asking ltte to guarantee democracy. that is bit too naive(esp. given ltte’s claim for sole representative status and its past non compliance with agreements). asking federal government to militarily intervene if didn’t after allowing ltte to exercise regional power for some time will be asking too much of a sacrifice from military and gosl.
“now who is asking questions? :-) unlike me you do not answer them yourself.”
I always thought that the point of asking a question is to obtain an answer, not to answer it oneself. Your’s is a novel approach, Snut. If I had the answers, I would give them, not ask questions. If you, on the other hand, have the answers, why ask question? Are you attempting to convince us that you are an idiot? If so, you’ve been successful. Was that the plan?
” if you think it is ‘ok’ to let an unreformed and armed ltte oppress millions of ppl under a fascist dictatorship across the border as cost of peace by all means say so.”
If I thought so, I would have. Has anyone else said the above? If so, please quote.
“i think the cost is too high and amount to appeasement”
Too high for whom? Let the “oppressed millions” decide for themselves, if so. They’ve already decided they don’t like being oppressed by the majority Sinhalese.
“nor are we in such a bad shape as to be forced to accept it even if we do not like it”
What would you consider “bad shape”? 60,000+ plus deaths? An economy that is stagnated? A COL that is spiaralling higher? A large portion of the nation (more than 25% at least) beyond the control of the elected government? Or do you feel we need more?
“since it can, it is governments duty to prevent ltte’s rule from spreading and increasing”
Please clarify this. Rule can spread and increase in many ways other than by territorial gains. The GoSL has proved capable of stopping the latter, but unable to in other ways. The LTTE is able to strike at will throughout the country, even in the deep south.
“and adopt feasible methods to defeat the ltte in the long term (including playing for time through forced stalemate strategy i described).”
Playing for time is not a startegy, Snut, it is a lack of strategy. What strategy do you propose that will defeat the LTTE on the long term?
“to clarify something, i have no objection whatever to federalism”
What a coincidence! Neither do I. I’m so glad we’re making progress in our little way.
“as long as they are ruled democratically and solution arrived at democratically. but that is unlikely as long as ltte exists)”
This is an assumption rather than fact, Snut, so lets leave it out of the discussion. If the GoSL had ruled democratically and decided to achieve a solution to the Tamil problem democratically, we wouldn’t be in this soup in the first place. Your assumption that the LTTE cannot transform itself into a progressive govt is unfounded. There are many examples of former ‘terrorists’ making a semblance of democratic governance that at least approaches that of the GoSL.
“one of my main objections to peaceniks is their inability to articulate this clearly ; that peace is worth the cost of handing over millions to ltte rule even though they admit ltte is bad”
Well maybe that is because they don’t think so, Snut, but YOU think they think so, and are determined to get them to say so. Has it occurred to you that they may not want this?
“one of my main objections to peaceniks is their inability to articulate this clearly ; that peace is worth the cost of handing over millions to ltte rule even though they admit ltte is bad”
Don’t you mean that your analysis of their arguments lead you to this conclusion?
“that is why i always ask them;†do they agree to handover million to ltte in return for peace ?—
And that is why I ask you “what makes you think so?”. And why I continue to ask you what you see as the great goal for Sri Lanka — is it the defeat of the LTTE? Or is there a greater goal? I fail to see an answer in your long and convoluted response.
“but they never answer and accuse me of rhetorical questions when it is the main matter at hand”
I think the main matter at hand is the greater good of Sri Lanka. What do YOU think?
“will they answer at last here?”
Will you?
“appeasements in history has never worked.”
Never a truer word. But the argument is whether it is appeasement or engagement. Do you feel that engagement has never worked either?
“btw northen ireland was not appeasement as somebody claimed, ira first made a commitment to disarm and then disarmed ”
BTW, the Provisional IRA has NOT disarmed. You may think so, Snut, just as people thought the LTTE disarmed in ’87 when they handed over a few weapons.
“nor did they claim absolute power without accountability for a period or sole representative status”
Can you name any other Roman Catholic terrorist/armed group in Northern Ireland other than the Provos and the Real IRA (a splinter faction)? They did not need to claim sole representation because they were the sole representatives.
“they in fact faced free elections.”
Has the LTTE said they will not? Has even the choice been offered to them?
“they also observed the ceasefire”
As did the British govt. Since the GoSL hasn’t observed the ceasefire either, this argument is irrelevant here. You might note that when it came to the crunch, the British govt cut off ties with the Protestant paramilitaries, unlike the GoSL, which has fostered the Karuna faction.
“none of these conditions exist in sl peace process”
Neither does Irish whisky, so what’s your point?
Aney mei – umbala denna gaha ganning. Mokak hari prayojanayak athi yamak kamak katha karanawanang karuna karala apitath dannala ewanna. Pissuda hatida oi? Modakamada…murandukamada?